Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Coffee Wave

We've said it once, and we'll say it again: Using the weather to stay ahead of price changes in a major financial market is like using a grasshopper as your focus object during childbirth.

But don't take our word for it. Simply check out these recent news items on coffee futures AND see for yourself:

October 23, 8:38 AM: coffee prices perk up alongside a powerful Arabica rally to three-week highs. And, according to the popular media, one main factor was behind the rise --

"The El Nino event is causing dryness in Indonesia and could affect northerly parts of Brazil, possibly hurting parts of the region's developing crop."

Four hours later, at approximately 12:45 PM, El Nino became a tropical phenomenon-event when coffee futures backed down from its earlier highs. To explain the move, one news source made this determination:

"Soil moisture conditions in Brazil are favorable for flowering coffee trees."

Don't say we didn't warn you.

The good news is, on October 23 – shielded indoors from the elements – Daily Futures Junctures offered three compelling close-ups of the coffee market, along with original and objective analysis of the near-term trend changes in store.

According to our labeled price charts, not one, but THREE very important developments have taken place to indicate where coffee prices will be in the days to come:

First, a month-long Double Zigzag has unfolded. Briefly, this is a simple three-wave pattern labeled a-b-c occurring twice in succession in which wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave a.

Second, a diagonal shape has turned up in wave c of the second zigzag. FYI: diagonals only occur in the termination points, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement and dramatic CHANGE ahead.

And last, in DFJ's own words: "The ensuing [move] has occurred on very strong momentum, adding much weight to the idea that" one trend is now getting underway.

Three reasons.

Click the Coffe Wave header link above to learn more about trading the waves.

Good day and good trading.