Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Forex F-r-e-e-d-o-m Ends in 12 Hours

Just a final courtesy notice to let you know that in 12 hours, the home study course that has somewhat 'shaken' the Forex trading community over the past week is coming off the market.

It comes down TONIGHT, Tuesday, July 29th, at 11:59pm Eastern (New York) time.

At last count, there were only 19 copies left. These may actually be gone by the time you get this message . . . you can check the latest 'real-time' inventory count here:

I also wanted to share a note I got from the developer of the course that he received from one of his students a few days ago. It gives you a glimpse into the excitement the possibility this course is creating for traders.

And it could create this potential for you, too.

Good Trading,

P.S. Here's the note:

"Dear Bill and Greg and Staff,

Thank you, thank you, thank you. You have saved me from having to go out and get a 'job'. I've been an at-home dad for the past eight years, while my lovely wife worked, but I told her, 'If you ever want to stay home with the kids, I'll work.' Well, she called my bluff recently, and I was dreading looking for work, when I came across your method. I'd been trading the stock market (paper and live) for about a year, but the stock market was simply not presenting me with good trade set-ups. I was up, but not by nearly enough to make a living. I was getting depressed.

Then I found you . . . This is a blast. It's just fun. Oh, and did I mention PROFITABLE? I made about $6,000 in TWO WEEKS! I had some losses as well, but most of them were my mistakes and had nothing to do with the method. And I learned from those mistakes.

Your method is incredible. I have no idea how you came up with these four methods. It's inconceivable. My family owes you a great debt. I've been telling everyone I know about this, and two or three friends of mine are going to buy your course, I hope, for their sake.

Thank you again. I just can't say it enough."

Warm regards

Lee Meddin, Davis, CA*

Click here for the last Forex Profit Accelerator Home Study Course

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Forex Mentoring Mind Tricks & Options

Just a quick update about Bill Poulos's Forex Profit Accelerator home study course I let you know about earlier this week . . .

I don't know if he's announced all these yet, but I wanted to give you a heads-up as soon as I heard about this.

Starting today, he just added on some bonus training materials which I personally think is a little crazy for him to do.



Because 2 of them are GROUP MENTORING web-seminars that let you "spy" on his trading computer and get your questions answered live and "in person".

Here are the details:

After you get his Forex course, Bill's going to give you private login instructions were you can join him on 2 separate web-seminars. You'll get to interact live with Bill, ask him to pull up Forex charts, take a look at trades, and more . . . I've seen these kinds of sessions go for $200 or more, but he's including both of them "on the house" if you pick up his course TODAY. Folks, that's like someone handing you $400.

Click here to get them:


Bill also talked one of the masters of trading psychology to "cough up" 2 brand new, unpublished "trading mind" reports that include the latest tricks and techniques you can use to train yourself to . . . Pull the Trigger

Yeah, I know... discipline & psychology aren't "exciting"; however, successful traders know that they are CRITICAL in achieving success in the markets.

And I also know that any time I can get my hands on the latest thinking about the mind of a trader, I want that information IMMEDIATELY.

You get these 2 new reports here:


Finally, Bill made a call to a company that's among the best at teaching options trading and asked them if they had any new training materials focused on trading options with Forex.

They delivered big time.

This bonus is a little sensitive because the value is so high, and some folks already paid a lot of money for it. So I can't mention the details here.

But I can say that you get it at no extra cost when you pick up Bill's Forex Profit Accelerator course TODAY by clicking right here:


I don't know how long these bonuses will last, so I urge you to at least check them out in more detail. They're probably worth close to $1,000, and you get them for nothing. That's a pretty good deal to me.

Good Trading

P.S. If you are already among the nearly 400 traders who've already picked up a copy of Bill's course, don't worry. He's going to "grandfather" you in on all these extra bonus items:

Here it is for you:

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Forex Independence Ends July 29

How can 20 minutes a day equal Forex Acceleration? Level the Forex "playing field once and for all. Successfully trade forex like you never have before.

Be sure to read this short note because . . . THE TIDE JUST TURNED in the Forex community.

Here's what's up:

In the past 2 weeks, over 175,000 traders have bombarded a special, "insiders" Forex trading website.

You might even call it an "underground" website because everything it exposes challenges what 95% of all Forex traders have held to be true for years.

So if you have ANY interest in discovering how to ride the "coat tails" of the big banks to maximize your "pip potential" in the Forex markets, you're in for a TREAT today...


So in just the past 24 hours, hundreds of traders already got their hands on what HISTORY will likely call a turning point in Forex trading.

I'm talking about a truly groundbreaking way to trade the Forex markets that takes less than 20 minutes day (hint: it's NOT day trading).

I was lucky enough to get my hands on a preview copy of this technique a few weeks ago and I'm absolutely floored by what's being revealed in this limited-edition trading course.

CAUTION: This is NOT for "systems junkies", or individuals who like to let others make their trading decisions.

But it IS for traders who like to have FULL CONTROL of their destiny in the markets . . . and who are finally ready to become INDEPENDENT traders.

Does this sound like you?

A FEW HUNDRED MORE "GET IT" - But it may be too late...

The 30+ year trading veteran who's "spilling the beans" on his totally unique twist on the Forex markets is only releasing 555 copies of his course that has the power to help you accelerate your profit potential like never before.

And he's already nearing the halfway sold-out point . . .

So if you want to:

Vanquish the pressure, strain, and stress normally associated with Forex...

Maximize your returns by riding on the "coat tails" of the behemoth market drivers before they know what hit them...

Drastically reduce your trading time by spending less than 20 minutes a night "in the trenches"...

Practically "rub out" account-crippling losses with simple yet profound risk management strategies only a few select traders are using . . . then check out the open letter the developer of this 4-pronged approach to Forex put together for you:

Click here to check out his letter and get in on the action:

I hope you find it as inspiring as I have.

Good Trading,

P.S. I've seen this developer's trading courses disappear in a matter of days in the past, and it's a near certainty it will happen again . . . so IF YOU VALUE YOUR TIME, I really urge you to check out his letter by clicking here, and then ask yourself how what he has to say stacks up against how YOU currently trade:

Monday, July 21, 2008

Weekly Stock Pick

My weekly stock pick last week was Google. Their earnings disappointed the street, and I got stopped out as the stock price declined. I’m reinitiating a buy on it at its current July 18 Friday close price of 481.32. Stop-loss 440.00. I’m seeing the major, intermediate, and minor 5th waves possibly ending here and opening up an opportunity for a possible reversal to the upside.

Scanning the charts this week, I’ve found a China company that I like for the long-term, but in the short-term, technically it looks like its got a little more downside to go. The China stocks are good investments in the long-term with the growth story going on there, but short and intermediate term, they might see a little more downside on the stock prices after their big upside price runs of 2006 and 2007. Remember, this is a short-term sell recommendation, as I would be looking to accumulate this stock for multi-year long term positions anytime now.

Sell Short China Life Insurance Ticker LFC

Sell Stop Entry: 54.58

Stop-Loss: 56.79

Take Profit Areas

Short Term: 48.00 – 47.11

Intermediate Term: 44.08 – 43.27. Right now I would be a buyer of LFC at this price range here. Have to wait and see if and when it gets there, and how the price is reacting to make a firm decision on going long at this price.

Long Term: 35.89 – 35.23 if the downtrend continues to what I consider an extreme low price on this stock. If it hit this price, I would be a very big buyer.

China Life Analysis

China Life Insurance has about a $100 billion market cap with a PE of about 16 currently. The institutions own only about 3% of this stock right now. LFC’s Price to Cash Flow is 17.59 and Price to Free Cash Flow is 5.69, both of which are pretty rich right now. In fact most of their valuation ratios are pretty rich compared to insurance industry averages, but of course this is China again. They do have strong growth rates, and their annual net income doubled from about $2.58M in 2006 to $5.3M in 2007. Looking forward they have a price earnings to growth ratio of 0.19 which is very low right now making them look very attractive going forward.

Their main competitors in the China life insurance market are privately held companies of China Pacific Insurance, PICC Property and Casualty, and Ping An Insurance. Currently the life insurance market in China has pretty low penetration. Right now insurance in the USA is about 4% of GDP. In China it’s about 1.7% of GDP. The China government no longer takes care of their people from birth to death anymore, so the China insurance sector shows great growth potential. Rumor has it that Warren Buffet could be looking to buy into China Life sometime soon possibly.

China Life Company Profile

China Life Insurance Company Limited (China Life) is an insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The Company’s main businesses include individual life insurance, group life insurance and short term insurance. Its products and services include individual life insurance, group life insurance, accident and health insurance. The Company is a provider of annuity products and life insurance for both individuals and groups, and a provider of accident and health insurance in China. As of December 31, 2007, the Company had over 93 million individual and group life insurance policies and annuities, and long-term health insurance policies in force. It also provides both individual and group accident and short-term health insurance policies, as well as services. The Company’s main business segments are Individual life insurance business; Group life insurance business; Accident and health insurance business, and Corporate and other.

Click here to review and Trial the Trading Software I used in determining my sell short position on LFC.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Free Forex Profit Accelerator Giveaway

As you probably know by now, next week is going to be a turning point in the Forex trading community when a proven course hits the market that will show you how to become an independent trader and claim back your time as you discover how to trade Forex pairs in less than 20 minutes a day . . . and YOU can get the very FIRST copy from the printers before anyone else even has a chance to.


The developer of the course is going to GIVE AWAY one full scholarship this Saturday evening, July 19th. That's 3 days before it even hits the market.

(He's even covering shipping & handling to anywhere in the world.)

This includes his full course, along with all his bonuses, and 1 year of email support. It's about as close as you can get to being personally taught how to trade Forex by a 30+ year market veteran.

Want in on the action? Just click here:

Good luck & good trading,

P.S. The deadline for entering the giveaway is July 19th at noon eastern time, Saturday. So don't dawdle if you want your complimentary Forex fix ;-) Here's how to get it:

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Forex Members Website Free Preview Re-Opens for 7 Days

If you enjoyed the complimentary 'Forex 4-Pack' training I posted here last week, wait until you see this. Make sure you READ ALL OF THIS because what I'm about to share with you EXPIRES in 7 days.

Here's the scoop . . .

Next week, on Tuesday, July 22nd, the Forex trading community will get turned on its ear. Why do I say that?

Because the home study course that stripped the Forex community away from their computers last Fall by showing them how to reap huge pip potential in just 20 minutes a night by becoming true, independent traders is coming back . . . but only for 7 more days.

Everything about it is first class... and easy to understand. I'll have more information to send you about it on July 22nd, but for now I've been granted special permission to give you private access to a Members Website Preview so you can get "up
close & personal" with this trading course before the rest of the community gets a chance to.

You see, the author of the course is only releasing 555 more copies from July 22nd to July 29th... but here's the problem: He already has 40,000+ traders interested in it. So he just doesn't have enough inventory to go around.

His first two limited releases sold out in a matter of days.

That's why he's letting me give you complimentary access to his Members Website Preview, but only until July 22nd. He wants to weed out the "tire kickers" so that only the traders who are truly serious about discovering how to trade the Forex markets in less then 20 minutes a day can get a copy of the course.

Incidentally, July 22nd is when the Members Website Preview closes down and re-opens only for students of his breakthrough course.

Click here to get it for free:

Here are just a few of the goodies you'll get on the preview site, beginning TODAY:

Total access to his PIP FEEDER service where you can get daily lists of the Forex pairs that have met his rigorous trade alert criteria. In fact, these are Forex pairs that have a high probability of entering into potentially profitable positions any day now. He'll eventually be charging $197/mo for this service, but it's complimentary on the Members Website Preview.

The "Pip Vault", which contains actual Forex trade example "screen capture" videos, so you can see exactly how his students can trade in less then 20 minutes a night.

Complete access to his 'Forex 4-Pack' complimentary training kit. Those lucky traders who already got their hands on this last week know how powerful it is.

Bonus Forex tutorials, including a very detailed lesson on the ins and outs of Forex trading using one of the most popular charting and trading software packages on the market.

Previews of the actual CD-ROMs that ship with the course so you can see exactly the type of material that's on them, and a TON more.

But don't take my word for it. Go ahead and check it out now by visiting the web page here now:

This may be the best Forex education you'll EVER receive.

Good forex trading,

P.S. Remember, this complimentary preview access WILL expire on Tuesday, July 22nd, so I urge you to get in now while you can if you have any interest learning how to dramatically up your "pip potential" while saving hours a day at the same time.

Click here to get free access:

Monday, July 14, 2008

Weekly Stock Pick

My scan of the charts this week came up with a company most everyone on the internet knows about. I’ve been looking to get back in the stock since I got in the IPO back in 2004, then sold in mid January of this year when the entire market was going down hard and heavy. My basis for my position on this stock is purely technical. The fundamentals over the years have spoken for themselves.

Buy Long on Google, Ticker GOOG

Friday July 11 GOOG Prices: Open 536.50, High 539.50, Low 519.43, Close 533.80.

Google Earnings Call: Q2 2008 Earnings July 17, 2008 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET. In the past Google have generally had the best reports and price reactions after their earnings announcements.

Current Technical Analysis on Google

The Google chart has created major Elliott Waves 1 & 2 from its recent uptrend of its 413.04 yearly low price on March 10th. Wave 1 completed on May 2nd at a price of 602.45, and Wave 2 completed on June 27th at a price of 515.09. The completion of this major Wave 2 could be signaling a continued uptrend into Wave 3.

Just to review Elliott Wave, Wave 3 is normally the biggest and longest of the 5 waves, with waves 2 and 4 being the corrective downward waves in an uptrend, and vice versa in a downtrend.

In the intermediate term, GOOG has almost completed a 5th wave corrective downtrend between the major up wave 1, and major down wave 2, which started on June 30th at 589.92, which I expect to be completed any day now, signaling a possible return to uptrend.

In the short term, GOOG has formed minor Waves 1 & 2 signaling a possible return to uptrend, with the bottom of Wave 1 June 27th at a low of 515.09, and the top of Wave 1 July 9th at a high of 555.68. Wave 2 now sitting on last Friday July 11 low of 519.43.

GOOG July 11 price has just hit below the recent up gap price on April 18th, which looks like a healthy sign of shaking out the last weak hands on Google.

An upward triangle is forming signaling a possible breakout to the upside. Starting from March 17th to July 11th for the lower trendline, and May 5th to June 5th or June 17th for the upper trendline forming the triangle.

On a long term basis the money flow index is reading very low at 33.85 during the week of July 11th, coming from 24.73 during the week of June 30th.

With the long, intermediate, and short term, signaling a return to possible uptrend, I see Google as a very low risk high reward entry position currently to get in on the worlds leading internet company and stock play.

Google Buy Long Trade Setup

Buy Entry: At current prices and or where I project the Intermediate Wave 5 ending at about 512.89. This would take any stops sitting just below the recent June 27 low of 515.09, if it happens.

Stop-Loss: 488.52 to 485.44 which is about 8%. Or if you can handle losing more set your stop lower.

Google Take profit regions.

Short Term: 547.70

Intermediate Term: 602.45

Long Term: 702.49

Longer Term: Leave Open

Google at Sun Valley Last Week

Google spoke with reporters about many things the Sun Valley Conference. The list of key issues being addressed were the Yahoo deal, Viacom’s lawsuit against Google, politics, energy, and the environment.

What I paid most attention to was the positive view of CEO Eric Schmidt about energy prices, consumer confidence, and the financial markets. Schmidt thinks that USA’s creativity will work things out. I tend to agree, but more on a global basis than just a USA only basis I contend. Schmidt cites an example of the people working at Google, saying they're "inventing the future."

In my mind this is the key point of the whole news conference they held there. The future has yet to be. We the people of this earth hold the power to create it. Leaders are people who take the first step by saying “what if”. People like co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have already lead the way, and still continue to lead the way. These guys are true visionaries, and the visions of leading people create grand things for all people in many different ways. In my mind, these guys put the power of the world largest network, the internet, back in the common people’s hands, and out of the sole control of the Fortune 500 players wanting to control it all as usual by using Yahoo to advertise it all through. This is evident in the fall of Yahoo and their previous advertising only revenues from the big players, and the rise of Google, and their power to the people with social networking, and myriad of products for everyday people using the internet.

Schmidt mentioned that about two billion people around the world are now moving into the middle class. Yes, the rest of the world has been, and continues to grow like the USA and western world did in decades past. And growing bigger and faster than the developed world did in the last 50 years. With billions of people around the world now entering the middle class, just compare that with the mere millions that were entering the middle class 50 years ago, and now this is a recipe for huge global growth, namely with India, China, the entire Asia region, and parts of South America like Brazil too. Hopefully pretty soon, Africa can start enjoying the new global growth that’s been ongoing also. They deserve it.

Schmidt says that "the sun will rise tomorrow" and to remember that it's a positive world. Yes I agree. Over the long term, good as always prevailed over evil. Schmidt, Page and Brin were also excited about the education panel they listened to the previous morning, and interested with the idea that the same amount of money can be spent on education much more efficiently.

Google Company Profile

Google Inc. maintains an index of Websites and other online content, and makes this information freely available to anyone with an Internet connection. The Company’s automated search technology helps people obtain nearly instant access to relevant information from its online index. Google generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the thousands of third-party Websites that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant ads that generate revenue and enhance the user experience. In September 2007, Google completed the acquisition of Postini, Inc., a provider of information security and compliance solutions. In March 2008, the Company completed the acquisition of DoubleClick, which offers online advertisement serving and management technology to advertisers, Web publishers and advertisement agencies.

Click here to review and Trial the Trading Software I used in determining my buy long position on GOOG.

Good day, good investing and trading!

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Free Forex 4-Pack Reminder

Free Forex 4-Pack links are working (get it before it crashes)

A few days ago, I sent you a private web page where you could get your hands on the brand new 'Forex 4-Pack' that is ruffling a few feathers in the Forex community. In fact, some people don't like it.


Because it totally contradicts what many of the 'hype merchants' (and the MEDIA) have advocated as the 'holy grail' way to trade the Forex markets.

Instead of blindly following what's popular, the author of this 'Forex 4-Pack' created it based on WHAT WORKS NOW. He also made sure every insider or underground concept he reveals can be applied in 20 minutes or less per day.

That's a big deal.

Remember, this is NOT for sale, but for a short while, you can get the whole thing 'on the house'.

Grab it here:

Part 1 was released last Tuesday, and Part 2 was just released today. Look for the remaining 2 parts in a few days.

It's not every day such a cohesive kit of Forex training materials is given away like this, so I really urge you to pick up a copy before it's gone.


Good forex trading,

P.S. If you had trouble accessing Part 1 last Tuesday, the web server where it was hosted did indeed crash from too much demand. The data center where the server resides is in New Jersey, but they actually had to have a technician from Hong Kong log in remotely to fine-tune the server configuration to get it working again.

Bottom line - get the 4-Pack NOW just in case that scenario happens again:

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Free Options Trading Webinar July 9

"Who Else Wants To Discover The True 'Option Advantage'?"

It's true. Once you know the FACTS, trading options is much, much safer than trading stocks, and can be tremendously more profitable as well.

Now I realize that statement may go against everything you've heard about options in the past.

Option Trading Myths and Other Misconceptions Like:

Options trading is risky! You can lose ALL YOUR MONEY trading options!

Oh, the market makers are just dishonest crooks out to skin the novice trader alive! I don't STAND A CHANCE to make any money trading options.

I just can't understand options -- they are way too complicated!

Well, once you unearth the TRUTH about options trading, these lies, myths and misconceptions will vanish like a thief in the night.

It's time you discovered the TRUTH about options trading. And you'll be able to do exactly that on Wednesday, July 9, 2008 at 9:00 pm EST.

At that time, our own Ron Ianieri will banish those false thoughts from your mind forever in a completely F.R.E.E. webinar entitled . . .

"How Professionals Use Options to Maximize Profit Potential and Minimize Risk, And How You Can Too..."

Click here to register for this Free Options Trading Webinar:

On this webinar, Ron will reveal the true Option Advantage, and the 4 Major Advantages of Trading Options Instead of Stocks.

You'll discover . . . How to set up an options trading position that will mimic a stock position almost identically... but at a HUGE cost reduction

Why options are the most dependable form of hedge, and are SAFER than stocks in many cases.

How the "Stock Replacement Strategy" can give you 80% of the stock's performance... at 1/4 the price

How options trading is enormously more flexible than stocks, giving you a smorgasbord of enticing, profit-pulling alternatives stock trading will never provide.

Yes, Ron will be pulling out all the stops on this one. You don't want to miss this webinar.

But be forewarned, once you truly grasp the concepts Ron will reveal, you may never want to trade stocks again.

Here's the web page to get more details of this exciting options trading webinar:

P.S. Join us on Wednesday evening, July 9, 2008 at 9:00 pm EST when our own Ron Ianieri will reveal the truth behind the "Option Advantage", and discover why you may never want to trade stocks again.

Click here to attend:

Good day and good options trading!

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Free Forex Training Begins Now

Don't place another Forex trade until you READ ALL THIS

The bar for Forex training is about to be raised again . . . because one of the top Forex mentors has just released his BRAND NEW multimedia training "kit" that challenges 90% of what most Forex traders hold to be true.

It might "ruffle your feathers", but if you have ANY interest in discovering how select groups of traders have been quietly riding the coat tails of the big banks to maximize their "pip potential" in the Forex markets . . . I think you're in for a big SURPRISE.

To get your free copy, just click here to visit this web page right now:

Your Free "Forex 4-Pack"

If a 30+ year seasoned trader grilled you on your top Forex challenges and then delivered a custom-made, step-by-step, multimedia "blueprint" that addressed each and every one . . . do you think you'd be interested?

Well, that's pretty much what you're about to get your hands on.

Over the past year, thousands of Forex traders were invited to take part in a landmark survey about their top challenges trading the Forex markets.

And the result?

A four-part multimedia POWERHOUSE that ignores what's popular, and instead tells you the TRUTH about what's working NOW in the Forex markets.

It's called the 'Forex 4-Pack', and honestly, you shouldn't even consider placing another trade until you see what it reveals.

20 Minutes A Day?

Find out how the author spends just 20 minutes a day with TOTAL confidence in the Forex markets, identifying more pip potential in that time than most traders dare to dream about.

You'll also learn:

How to "shake out" the good Forex brokers from the unscrupulous ones. Many brokers won't be prepared when you ask them these 5 questions (part 1, page 16, & part 4).

The "core essentials" of Forex trading that will let you "leapfrog" over other traders, giving you a "fast track" that would otherwise take months, or years to achieve (part 2).

The 4 "golden rules" your Forex trading method MUST follow if you want to have an edge over all other traders (part 1, page 58).

The "insiders formula" on how to determine the best mix of technical indicators to use when trading Forex pairs (part 1, page 27).

Step-by-step tactics for applying the "Optimal Profit Exit Strategy". This is a deadly accurate way of enjoying profit-taking as quickly as possible (part 1, page 37).

The 4 market conditions that you should avoid at all costs and that practically eradicate risk (part 3).

How to drastically reduce your "time in the trenches" trading Forex by spending only 20 minutes a day. These 2 discoveries make it all possible (part 1, page 70).

Plus, there's a TON more you'll get to sink your teeth into when you get the '4-Pack'.

Sorry, it's not for sale.

When I snuck a look at the 'Forex 4-Pack', I was certain I'd be asked to cough up 150 bucks or more for it. After all, it's not one of those flimsy 10-page "ebooks" many so-called "gurus" try to pass of as "value" these days . . . instead, it's a collection of lengthy reports, "screen capture" video tutorials, and more... there's even a "Broker Scorecard" that your broker might have a hard time with. Bottom line - it's all designed to PROTECT YOU and to HELP YOU FIND MORE PIPS, with more FREQUENCY.

That's why I was surprised to find out that . . . it's not for sale (at least not right now).

You see, the author released an early version of just one of the pieces to this '4 Pack' last year and he was overwhelmed by the response he received from the trading community.

So that's why he decided to give it away. In his own words, "I want to de-mystify the Forex markets once and for all. So I sat down to produce this material as if I was under oath, being grilled by an attorney. That's how direct and forthcoming it is."

How to get your free copy.

To get your free copy, just click here to visit this web page right now:

We hope you enjoy it as much as we have.

Good Trading,


P.S. This is a TON of material. Take your time and read it all, but hurry and download it. Why? Because it's so large, it could be taken offline at any moment if the author's web server "bandwidth" gets eaten up with all the requests for the '4-Pack'. You can get it by clicking here:

Good day and good forex trading!

Monday, July 07, 2008

Weekly Stock Pick

Another down market last week. Trying to find long candidates in a market like this is tough to say the least. Selling short was pretty easy last two weeks, as it seemed just about everything was going down. There has been some bull winner’s longer term. The agriculture sector stocks have done real well this last fifty two weeks. I don’t like chasing prices so I have not been in on the big bull run of this sector, until now.

After scanning the charts, up popped on my radar, a low risk high reward trade, on a basic materials company providing key ingredients to create fertilizer. I’m personally involved in the agriculture industry somewhat, and have done much research as to what the future holds for this industry. I’m a bull long term on this industry for two main reasons. The ongoing global food crisis, and the fact that the emerging countries around world are only using about 30% of the fertilizer the western world is using. These two main factors can contribute to a substantial amount of growth going forward long term in this industry and these stocks.

The stock I'm putting a buy rating on this week, is an agriculture stock that has taken about a 20% downward recent correction starting from June 18th. I’m hoping and looking for just a little more downside on the price to buy in. I wouldn’t be surprised if the price goes as low as the stop-loss I’ve set for it, as I've described below before returning on its uptrend. The bigger the price moves up, the bigger the price could move down too. Now onto this agriculture stock pick of mine.

Buy Long Mosaic Company Ticker MOS

Current Closing Price July 3rd 132.29

Entry Option #1

Buy at 125.41 to 123.20

Stop-Loss 112.98

Entry Option #2

Buy at 112.98

Stop-Loss 110.99

Take Profit Areas

Very Short Term 150.68 – 159.56

Short Term 160.74 – 167.93

Intermediate Term 170.02 – 177.63

Long Term 191.67 – 200.25

Longer Term 254.33 - 265.70

Upcoming MOS Earnings Statement

July 29, Mosaic Company will be reporting their 4th quarter 2008 fiscal year earnings at 8:30AM ET.

MOS Buy Analysis Commentary

With commodity prices at record highs, it could be said its a bit risky to be investing this sector in the short term. Longer term the agriculture sector is a rock solid investment in my opinion. During the short term possibly, the big cap agri stocks could take a breather from their huge upside moves this year, while the lagging agri stocks could possibly play catch up. I'm not saying this will happen. I'm just saying be on the lookout for this possibly happening.

Regardless of what or what may not happen, my buy pick above on MOS stands, as they are one of these big cap high flyers in the ag business that could take on more profit selling before a fresh batch of buyers come back in. I’m expecting MOS will continue their uptrend after shaking out the loose hands who think the high flying agricultural stocks will sell off because they’ve gone up so much this year. One thing I’ve learned from past financial market experience, is that just because prices seem high, doesn’t mean that the price is coming down, and vice versa. Here’s a cliché, ”The trend is your friend”. In this industry currently, this definitely applies in my view. This current correction looks like a beautiful buying opportunity on an continued uptrend.

Mosaic Company Profile

The Mosaic Company (Mosaic) is a producer of phosphate and potash combined, as well as nitrogen and animal feed ingredients. The Company operates its business through four business segments: phosphates, potash, offshore and nitrogen. The Phosphates segment operates mines and concentrates plants in Florida that produce phosphate fertilizer and feed phosphate, and concentrates plants in Louisiana that produce phosphate fertilizer. The Potash segment mines ad processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally. The Offshore segment produces and markets fertilizer products and provides other ancillary services to wholesalers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and farmers in South America and the Asia-Pacific regions. The Nitrogen segment consists of its equity investment in Saskferco and Mosaic’s nitrogen sales and distribution activities. http://www.mosaicco.com.

June 3 Mosaic Financial Guidance Announcement

The Mosaic Company announced today its financial guidance for its first fiscal quarter ending August 31, 2008 and for its fiscal year ending May 31, 2009. This financial guidance is also being provided during presentations at investor conferences in New York City, NY on June 4 and 5, 2008.

"We anticipate reporting robust fourth quarter results in fiscal 2008 as strong demand and the tight supply situation continues for crop nutrients," stated Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mosaic. "Given the world's burgeoning demand for grains and oilseeds, our fiscal 2009 financial guidance reflects strong financial performance momentum and underscores Mosaic's commitment to investing in the crop nutrition industry and helping farmers produce crops with greater yields," Prokopanko added.

The following statements are based on current expectations. These statements are forward-looking and actual results may differ materially.

Sales Volumes and Selling Prices

Phosphate sales volumes are expected to be in the range of 9.0 to 9.4 million tonnes for fiscal 2009. This increase is contingent upon sourcing an adequate supply of sulfur, operating mine and plant sites at high operating rates and restarting certain previously indefinitely closed phosphoric and sulfuric acid production in the second half of the fiscal year. The restart of this phosphoric and sulfuric acid production will permit Mosaic to utilize excess granulation capacity at one of its existing plants.

Potash sales volumes are expected to be 8.2 to 8.6 million tonnes in fiscal 2009. Previously announced potash capacity expansion projects will be underway in fiscal 2009; however, production from the first of the expansions will not come online until fiscal 2010. This volume estimate assumes, among other things, operating the potash facilities at high operating rates and continued successful management of the brine inflow at the Esterhazy mine.

Mosaic estimates a realized DAP price, FOB plant, in the range of $1,020 to $1,080 per tonne in the first quarter of fiscal 2009 and an estimated average realized MOP price, FOB plant, in the range of $460 to $510 per tonne for the same quarter. Both estimates assume farmer economics remain robust and that management has accurately estimated the mix of forward versus spot sales.

MOS Capital Spending

Capital spending for fiscal 2009 will grow significantly to a range of $900 million to $1.1 billion. This is more than double the company's historical rates. Mosaic will pursue capital projects with high returns, including expanding its potash capacity and reducing phosphate costs, along with increasing preventive maintenance projects designed to continue to attain high operating rates at its facilities. These projects are fairly evenly split between the phosphates and potash business segments.

Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties

Mosaic is also providing guidance on Canadian resource taxes and royalties for fiscal 2009. Expected profitability growth and escalating potash selling prices are expected to result in higher taxes and royalties than in previous years. Canadian resource taxes and royalties are estimated to range between $700 million and $1 billion in fiscal 2009. Management's estimate of the resource tax ad royalties requires management to make significant assumptions about a number of matters, primarily projected selling prices and volumes, capital spending and foreign currency exchange rates. These items are included as a component of cost of goods sold in the company's consolidated income statement. By comparison, these taxes and royalties are expected to approximate $400 million in fiscal 2008 and were approximately $120 million in fiscal 2007.


Selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to range between $360 and $390 million for fiscal 2009. Mosaic estimates an effective income tax rate in the low to mid 30% range for fiscal 2009.

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Thursday, July 03, 2008

U.S. Dollar Vs. Euro: Expect A Turbulent Thursday

On Thursday, July 3, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. That same day, economists expect the U.S. jobs number ("nonfarm payrolls") to show a 60,000 reduction.

Question: How should the two events affect the U.S. dollar's standing against other currencies?

Well, in theory, when a central bank raises interest rates, it makes that country's assets more attractive to foreign investors. And since the country's assets are denominated in that country's currency, it also becomes "more attractive" – i.e. it gains.

A weak jobs report speaks for itself. So, come Thursday, the USD should get decimated. Will it?

Possibly, but… If you've traded forex for a while, you've seen many instances when the market would react "illogically" to the news. What's stopping Thursday from being one of those days?

Forex markets often don't behave as "fundamentals" suggest they should. That's because what determines the trend is not the news. It's forex traders' reaction to the news. If they, collectively, feel bullish, they'll use the news – any news, good or bad – as an excuse to buy. And if they are feeling bearish, they'll wait for a news report and sell.

On days like that – when market action makes no sense – commentators say things like, "Currency traders shrugged off the negative U.S. jobs report and sold the euro, focusing instead on [fill in the blank]." Sound familiar?

So, the real question is – how do you know what mood, collectively, are forex traders in?

Here at EWI, the most reliable method for tracking and forecasting traders' bias that we know is – not surprisingly – the Elliott Wave Principle. Right now, according to our Currency Specialty Service, there is a good chance that the daily chart of the EURUSD is showing a contracting triangle you can see this chart fully labeled inside Currency Specialty Service now:

According to Elliott wave analysis, triangles usually resolve in the direction of the previous trend. Clearly, the EURUSD's trend has been up, so chances are, if this is indeed a triangle pattern, price will soon shoot higher.

There is just one caveat. "There is the possibility," writes Currency Specialty Service's editor Jim Martens in his July 01 closing commentary, "that wave D of the triangle shown is ending here and a final setback in wave E is needed."

How do we know if this triangle (if it is a triangle) is finished or not? In his July 01 analysis, Jim Martens shows you several key support and resistance levels that, if broken, will likely determine the answer to that question. Price action in the EURUSD on Wednesday, July 2, should be key to what happens next.

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Wednesday, July 02, 2008

June Non-Farm Payroll

June Non-Farm Payroll Report — Consensus Estimate 50K to 60K Loss in Payroll Jobs

The unemployment rate in May jumped more than it has in over two decades, reaching its highest level since October 2004 and emphasizing the recessionary risk the U.S. economy is currently facing. The civilian unemployment rate spiked to 5.5 percent from 5.0 percent in April, coming in much worse than the expectation of 5.1 percent. The last time the unemployment rate jumped half a percentage point was February 1985. With nearly 49,000 jobs cut from payrolls following decreases of 28,000 in April and 88,000 in March, May marked the fifth consecutive month of job losses. Overall, the economy has shed 324,000 jobs this year.

The latest decrease was led by declines in construction, professional & business services, retail trade, and manufacturing. Revisions to March and April resulted in a net revision downward of 15,000. On the inflation front, average hourly earnings advanced 0.3 percent in May, coming in above the market projection for a 0.2 percent boost.

With widespread payroll losses, the May non-farm report clearly portrayed further deterioration in the labor sector, lessening the ability of the consumer to support economic growth. The jump in unemployment may very well have been exaggerated for technical reasons such as graduating college students attempting to enter the labor market, but nevertheless points to weakening in employment. May's report has also put the Fed in a tough situation by lowering the odds of a healthy rebound in economic growth later this year. Treasury yields fell on the news and equities fell under downward pressure.

For week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 384,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 384,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 378,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

What is the non-farm payroll report?

Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly US NFP report is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market.

The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month's numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading.

What's more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies. The health of the US economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the US dollar.

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Tuesday, July 01, 2008

EURUSD: U.S. Interest Rates Unchanged. Now What?

On June 25, at 2:15 PM, the Federal Reserve did the expected and left U.S. interest rates unchanged at 2%, albeit "signaling rising worries about inflation risks." (The Wall Street Journal)

Going into the announcement, the general expectation of the analysts quoted in the financial media was for the USD to "come under a little bit of pressure'' after the news. And it did: The buck first gained, but then lost to the euro, pushing the EURUSD exchange rate about 100 pips higher in the afternoon.

The question now is: Was that all of the "pressure" the USD would see, or is there more to come?

Well, with the Fed's decision out of the way, all eyes now are on the European Central Bank that meets next week to decide on interest rates in the Eurozone. And the ECB has been talking "inflation," hinting they may not sit on their hands like the Fed did on June 25.

We will leave it up to fundamental forex analysts to decipher the trend in the EURUSD based on all these hints and allegations. The focus at Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service is strictly technical; it's Elliott wave patterns in forex markets' charts that we're trying to interpret.

24 hours a day, EWI's Currency Specialty Service brings you updates for all the major forex markets. Get instant access to the forecasts now.

Here's an intraday comment that Currency Specialty Service editor Jim Martens posted for subscribers on the morning of June 25, before the Fed's announcement:

11:09 ET/15:09 GMT
[Market Insight]

Start clearing a spot for me to stand on your desk because I'm headed there!

Going into news, I could not ask for a better set up. Let me explain why. The chart [of the U.S. Dollar Index] shows a clear five-wave decline.

That decline failed to move beneath the prior low at 73.04, so I see the decline as just the first wave in a larger decline sequence. So I'm bearish [the USD] just from that knowledge. The subsequent recovery looks corrective, and it retraced to the upper end of the Fibonacci [resistance] area; that could be all of the correction. Everything is bearish [for the dollar]. Thinking about the available wave patterns, it looks as though a flat correction is unfolding. A flat would ideally end with the dollar sneaking above 73.38 – maybe on news – in a C wave. The pattern is proven wrong above 73.652.

So, we have all the ingredients: a bearish wave pattern, an expectation of where the next top should form (just above 73.38), and we know where the outlook is wrong (above 73.652).

I'm always asked about putting the Wave Principle to use. This is a perfect example.

A perfect example, indeed.

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Good day and good forex trading!