Monday, April 27, 2009

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
The Week Ahead

Scanning the stock charts this Monday morning I’m reviewing this week’s key events that can significantly move the markets. The S&P Case Shiller home price and consumer confidence reports are coming out on Tuesday. Thursday is the Chicago purchasing managers, and ISM manufacturing sentiment. Factory orders, and auto sales reports coming out on Friday. On May 4 the bank stress test results are coming out with some more banks in trouble needing help from the Fed this last week. More corporate earnings are coming out this week, the Fed is meeting, and first quarter GDP report is due. Current earnings reports have not been a major disaster so far, but we still have many more to go just yet. President Obama will be reporting on Wednesday about his administration’s progress on his 100th day in office. Bank of America will be holding their annual meeting on Wednesday. The continuing auto industry story is still playing itself out. The Treasury is auctioning $100 billion in notes. Tim Geithner will be attending a China conference on Friday in Washington DC as well. The dollar was under pressure last week, and looks to stay that way this week too.

My Stock Pick This Week

It’s a short-sell on a company in the business software, technology, and related services and support industry. It’s basely soley on the technical’s of the chart, although the fundamentals don’t look to good right now also. I’m looking for a low-risk high-reward pullback short sale on this company right now. One of their leading competitors, Oracle is raising their dividend showing the street that they are much better positioned to weather the economic storm right now than the rest of their peers are showing.

Short-Sell SAP – Ticker SAP

Sell Entry: 40.59 to 41.70

StopLoss: 42 and Higher

Take Profit Areas: 39.58, 38.57, 37.56

If 37.56 gives way, 23 or less is a possible target.

SAP Company Profile

SAP AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, markets, and sells enterprise application software products for corporations, government agencies, and educational institutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America and Latin America, and the Asia Pacific Japan region. The company offers SAP Business All-in-One, which provides preconfigured industry-specific solutions for midsize companies; SAP Business ByDesign that offers an on-demand solution for midsize companies; and SAP Business One, which provides capabilities for various work involved in managing a small business, such as financials, sales, and customer support. Its business applications include SAP ERP, which consists of SAP ERP human capital management, SAP ERP financials, SAP ERP operations, and SAP ERP corporate services; SAP customer relationship management; SAP product lifecycle management; SAP supply chain management; and SAP supplier relationship management. The company also offers software-related services, which are support services provided by the SAP support units, such as SAP Active Global Support, SAP BusinessObjects—Customer Assurance, and SME Services; and custom development provided by the SAP Custom Development organization, as well as professional services and other services, including consulting, education, and managed services. It serves process, discrete, consumer, service, financial services, and public services industries. The company was formerly known as SAP Aktiengesellschaft Systeme, Anwendungen, Produkte in der Datenverarbeitung and changed its name to SAP AG. SAP AG was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.

Click here to review and Trial the Trading Software I used in determining my short position on SAP.

Click the SAP Stock Chart for a larger view.

SAP Stock Chart