Thursday, May 28, 2009

Benefit From Golds Next Move

Gold Bar

Do not invest in gold or silver until you read this Free 40-page Gold eBook. Not all gold and silver investments are created equal. You'll learn which are the best and exactly when they're the best with this brand-new eBook that will change the way you think about precious metals. Learn more about the free 40-page Gold and Silver eBook here.

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Do you invest in precious metals? Should you?

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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Options Trading Webinar May 28

Options Trading Tactics
5 Options Strategies Every Elliott Wave Trader Should Know

Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman wraps up his popular Options Trading Course Series on Thursday, May 28, with the grand finale.

Wayne distills his months of intensive research and years of Elliott wave options trading experience into an hour you don't want to miss!

In this LIVE, online trading course, Wayne will show you how to combine the Wave Principle and a few specific options trading strategies so that you can turn challenging market situations into welcome opportunities.

Wayne will teach you how to use options to minimize your risk and maximize your potential reward when — not if, when — you encounter the following market situations:

* Corrections that move violently up and down
* Trending markets that suddenly end with a major reversal
* Sideways markets like triangles that use up a lot of time
* Countertrend moves that quickly morph back into the main trend
* Trending markets with multiple "shakeout" moves

Wayne will walk you step-by-step through real-world examples of these situations, teaching you the following for each:

* What's the best options strategy to use and why
* Which wave position, i.e. wave 1 or wave B, best fits the strategy
* Which options strategies work best, for either a larger or smaller time frame
* How to apply Elliott's rules and guidelines, including Fibonacci ratios
* How to anticipate the above mentioned market situations and the type of wave structure that may unfold under each of those circumstances
* Where to set entry, price target and exit levels
* How to set up your strategy for the optimum risk/reward ratio
* How to fine tune strike prices and expiration dates
* What type of wave structure should precede your entry point and why
* When to consider exiting your entire position versus just one side of it
* And more…

To help make sure you get the most out of the entire options trading course, you'll also receive access to the Online Q&A Forum. You can review questions and answers from others and send Wayne your questions regarding the course material.

Click here to reserve your seat for this live, online options trading event taking place May 28 at 9:00 PM Eastern time.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
Stock Scans, Bear Market Rallies, and Investing Abroad

As I run my stock scans this Monday morning looking for a low-risk high-reward trade and or investment, I’m wondering if and when the market is going to selloff big again like I’ve been thinking it might during this entire bear market rally. Sure, stocks are cheap from the bloodbath selloff last year so a rebound of some kind was in the works, but now are US Companies going to keep driving exceptional earnings to drive their stock prices higher? I’m not so sure, especially if it’s a company only operating in the USA, and not diversified abroad. And what about this record USA debt that’s piling up? I would recommend investing more abroad now through direct investment or the Foreign ADR’s on NYSE. That also includes USA Stocks with heavy international exposure.

To decouple or not to decouple?

It’s already happened. The internet, ecommerce have helped globalization along is a solid strong fundamental story now. The rest of the world was doing ok before Uncle Sam got caught printing too much money and over-leveraging the US taxpayer for too long. Now they are going to have to pay the piper. The world doesn’t need USA so much anymore. The world economies are producing for their own respectable growing consumption now, and with the still higher wages in USA, they still need the low cost producing countries for production unless all the unemployed now are going back to the factories. I don’t think that will happen so fast just yet. Is the Dollar going to lose its status as the reserve currency of the world? So far the Buck has been and looks very shakey still at the very least. Will the US Dollar weakness continue? I would say yes as the financial drama of mounting debt is still unfolding as I write this. China and other big economic countries are showing signs of bailing out of the dollar. Bottom line action would be to lighten up on US Stocks, Bonds, and the US Dollar, and start trading and investing in emerging market world growth more now.

My Weekly Stock Pick is Buy USA Healthcare Company

Even though I said sell above, I’m thinking the USA market may keep inching upward short-term. At least for certain selected sectors and stocks. My stock pick this week is a buy long position on a big USA healthcare supply chain services, and clinical medical products company. I think it has a little more upside from here, but not so much to let it ride, so pay attention and keep your trailing stop-loss take profit targets real tight. President Obama’s healthcare bill might help it along, but I didn’t look in depth into this as I’m putting my buy call on it from a technical point of view only.

Buy Long Position Cardinal Health – Ticker CAH

Buy Entry: 33.94 to 34.77

Stop-Loss: 33.80 or Lower

Take Profit Areas: 37.47 to 38.24, 39.13 to 39.94, 42.54 to 43.41

Cardinal Health Company Profile

Cardinal Health, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services to the healthcare sector in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Healthcare Supply Chain Services, and Clinical and Medical Products. The Healthcare Supply Chain Services segment distributes various branded, private-label medical and laboratory, generic pharmaceutical, healthcare, and consumer products to retail customers, hospitals, and alternate care providers. This segment also provides distribution, inventory management, data/reporting, new product launch support and contract, and chargeback administration services, as well as operates a pharmaceutical repackaging and distribution program that provides repackaged pharmaceutical products. The Clinical and Medical Products segment develops, manufactures, leases, and sells medical technology products, including Alaris intravenous medication safety and infusion therapy delivery systems, software applications, needle-free disposables and related patient monitoring equipment, and Pyxis dispensing systems. This segment also offers medical and surgical products comprising infection prevention products, such as single-use surgical drapes, gowns and apparel, exam and surgical gloves, and fluid suction and collection systems; respiratory care products, including ventilation equipment and supplies; and medical specialties products, such as reusable surgical instruments and biopsy needles. Cardinal Health also provides Medicine Shoppe and pharmacy services; orthopedic implants and instruments; and enteral devices and airway management products. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ohio.

Click here to review and trial the Trading Software I used in determining my long position on Cardinal Health.

Click the Cardinal Health Stock Chart for a larger view.

Cardinal Health Stock Chart

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

India: From Bust to BOOM-bay.

India Map
India: From Bust to BOOM-bay. The Path We Saw Coming

On Monday, May 18, the biggest financial news story was not the 200-plus point stock market surge on Wall Street. It was the 2,000-plus point surge on Dalal Street. To wit: India's main Sensex Index soared more than 17%, triggering circuit breakers and halting operations for two hours in that market's first-ever "upside shutdown."
Here's another number: .0001. That's the fraction of a second it took for the fundamental experts to pin the Sensex surge on India's Parliamentary election results. "India's stocks enjoy 'Congress Party Rally'," exclaimed one popular news source.

There's just one problem. The outcome of the election was public knowledge way before the official May 18 announcement. (See May 15 AP story: "Officials 'Twitter: 'Early Results Show Congress Party Is Leading.'") At best, the Congress Party's much-anticipated victory is a small part in a larger optimistic whole that has long since been underway.

Is The Bull Market Back In Bombay? The May 2009 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast presents original price charts and in-depth analysis on India's stock market. Get the full story today. Click Here

Reality Check time: The most recent uptrend in the Bombay Stock Exchange got started on March 9, 2009 -- more than two months ago. At that time, the only "victory" the mainstream experts saw in India's financial future was that of a furious BEAR against a feeble Bull.

In the Grizzly's corner: A huge outflow of foreign investments, 10 million job cuts by Indian exporters, the emotional and structural devastation from the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, the worst corporate scandal in India's history (The $1 billion Satyam Computer Services fraud known as India's "ENRON") --- AND, a 70% plunge in the Sensex from its January 2008 high.

In the words of one March 6, 2009 news source: "Sensex Hits Three Year Low... There is a total lack of confidence in the market." (Business Live)

That's a sentiment with which the March 2009 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast begged to differ. In that publication, Editor Mark Galasiewski set the stage for an across-the-board surge in Asian stocks and wrote:

"Most Asian Pacific indexes are midway through the fifth wave declines. Once those impulses are complete, prices should rally for at least several months."

Soon after, a major trend-accelerating developement occurred to warrant an immediate bullish case. In the March 23 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast "Interim Report," Mark presented the following close-up of the Sensex Index and wrote: (Note: Some wave labels have been removed for this publication)

"Prices have just broken above a downtrend line, imitating a pattern from 2004 that led to a strong rally."

Now that the Sensex has regained 50% of its dramatic 2008 sell off, one question remains: Is the bull market back in India?

Click Here for the The May 2009 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast presents original price charts and in-depth analysis on India's stock market.

Click here for more information and stock picks on the India Stock Market

Monday, May 18, 2009

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
The Market Week Ahead

The market could be in for choppy trading this week. With light earnings reports and economic news coming in, the market will be looking for signs of direction. Notable events this week include Timothy Geithner testifying before Congress on Wednesday on the TARP program. Housing starts and leading indicators reports are coming out this week also.

Agriculture Stocks On Radar Screen

As I ran my stock scans this early Monday morning, a lot of Agriculture stocks popped up on the radar screen as possible sell candidates. They have taken a good upside run lately, and still may have more to go, but the higher they fly, the lower they can fall too. I’m not selling short this sector though, at least not yet if ever. The fundamentals are just too strong and solid right now, but I’m not buying at these levels either. A pullback would provide a nicer entry point for the agri stocks longer term.

This Weeks Stock Pick

My stock pick this week is an international telecom. Its chart pattern has the look for much lower prices potentially near and medium term. In case it has more upside, always use a stop-loss. I would be a strong buyer under 14 to 12. With a yield over 7%, and the company’s expansion into the South American internet market, the payout ratio is about 90%. For the near term I’m putting a sell on this international telecom stock.

Short-Sell France Telecom. Ticker FTE

Sell Entry: 23.56 to 22.67

Stop-Loss: 24 or Higher

Take Profit Targets: 20.97 to 20.63, 20.31 to 19.93, 17.53 to 17.25, 14.53 to 14.30

France Telecom Company Profile

France Telecom provides fixed telephony and mobile telecommunications, data transmission, Internet, and multimedia services to consumers, businesses, and other telecommunications operators in France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Poland, and the rest of the world. It operates in three segments: Personal Communication Services (PCS), Home Communication Services (HCS), and Enterprise Communication Services (ECS). The PCS segment provides mobile telecommunications services. The HCS segment offers the fixed-line telecommunications services, including fixed-line telephony, Internet services, and services to operators, as well as engages in the distribution activities and support functions. The ECS segment provides business communication solutions and services, as well as data transmission services, including low and high-speed Internet, data transmission, and leased lines services. In addition, France Telecom offers integration, project consulting, management, and platform services. Further, it provides broadcast services and network equipment sales. The company also offers telecommunication services in Kenya. It has a strategic partnership with Sonaecom. France Telecom was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Click here to review and trial the Trading Software I used in determining my short position on France Telecom.

Click the France Telecom Stock Chart for a larger view.

France Telecom Stock Chart

Friday, May 15, 2009

How to Apply Elliott Wave Analysis to Forex

Charts. That's what Elliott wave analysis is all about: Looking at charts, in different time frames, in search of clear Elliott wave patterns. Once you've found one and figured out what part of the pattern your market is in, you can make a reasonable forecast where the market will go next.

What does that mean in practice? Here's a good example. On Wednesday, May 13, the editor Elliott Wave International's intensive Currency Specialty Service Jim Martens posted the following Market Insight for his subscribers.

FreeWeek in Progress Now. Don't miss your free chance to read the latest Currency Specialty Service forecasts, now through May 20. Get instant access now with a free Club EWI password.

Market Insight
Posted On: Wed, 13 May 2009 00:59:32 GMT
Jim Martens, editor, Currency Specialty Service

In recent updates I've suggested sterling may prove the weak currency of the group. In our regular work, we look at sterling relative to the euro and the U.S. dollar. To reach the conclusion that sterling will be the weakest of the bunch, you have to compare it to a number of its competitors.

Readers already know that we view the GBP recovery underway since January as a correction. In EURGBP we're following a possible bullish triangle. Moving beyond our regular coverage, let's look at the British pound relative to the Swiss franc, yen and New Zealand dollar.

The first chart reveals sterling has been weak relative to the yen and that the decline underway since July 2007 is incomplete. The recent rebound representing wave four of three, [with another push lower likely ahead.

Against the Swiss franc, sterling did gain at the start of the year. But the structure of the recovery is corrective, in three waves, and unlike against the dollar, sterling has not extended its gains above the peak established in February, leaving the December-to-February recovery as the dominant pattern.

Lastly, against the New Zealand dollar, all sterling has managed this year is a consolidation. Because sterling was falling before the triangle that you see in this chart was formed, it's likely to thrust down once the triangle pattern is complete.

Bottom line: Looking at these three crosses, it's clear that sterling is likely to prove weak against most, if not all, of its competitors.

Click here to get insights like these FREE Now -- through noon on May 20, as part of ongoing Forex FreeWeek. Get instant access with a free Club EWI password.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

How You Process Information Influences Your Trading Results

Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom
By Van K. Tharp - International Institute of Trading Mastery

Van Tharp 2009 Trading Workshops

As a trader part of your challenge is that you must make decisions based on a large amount of information. Thousands of volumes have been written on how to analyze the vast amount of investment information available. Few investment authorities will admit that most of this information is of low quality and has little predictive value. Since investment information is of such low quality, mental strategies (how you make decisions) become especially important in determining the profits or losses that you will experience.

To give you just a little insight as to what I mean about how we deal with this information in our decision making process, let me share this information from the Second Edition of the Peak Performance Home Study Course (which we will be releasing soon).

Information as a Concept

As a child when we first learn a language, we ask mom, “What is that?” Mom might say, “It’s an apple.” And then the rest of your life you relate to each apple, not through a direct sensory experience about the apple, but by the word "apple." If mom said, “That’s called an apple,” you might be a little more inclined to have a sensory experience of an apple. But typically Mom says, “That is an apple.” And you accept her word for it. And even when you eat an apple you don’t really experience the apple. Instead, you just swallow something and say to yourself, “That was an apple.” And that’s quite different from being in the present moment with an apple.

The market is even more indirect and full of concepts that you don’t really know or understand. You never really have a direct experience with a stock. Instead, you see quotes on a computer, bar charts, and a place on your computer screen where you can fill out some information and open a position. You can never directly have an experience of that stock.

So all day long we are basically dealing with concepts flowing through our heads, not having a direct experience with anything. And the market is probably as indirect as anything.

Your head is probably filled with chatter. And most of it means very little. For example, let me stop for a minute and give you a running commentary of what’s flowing through my head:

“Oh, now you’ve done it, what are you going to say? And I probably had something important right there, but now thinking about it, I don’t know what it is. He’s in my head. Boy, I’m feeling sleepy. OK, a minute is probably up.”

Notice that what I said is mostly junk, but it’s actually what I said to myself when I recorded my thoughts for about a minute. Psychologists estimate that about 80 - 95% of the information we pay attention to in our heads is total junk. It doesn’t mean anything and it is repetitive. But for most people it is still the reality to which we give our attention.

So let’s see. What do we know now? Our thoughts are mostly junk concepts that we mistake for reality. And our only exposure to the markets is through vague concepts that just add more junk into what’s going on in your head. And it’s what’s going on in your head that you really trade (i.e., your beliefs)—not the markets!

This means that traders do not have direct sensory feedback about their trading performance. Typically, investment information is delayed and transformed through many levels of coding. For example, when a trader opens a position in the market, he does not get immediate sensory feedback about the investment. Most investments are traded symbolically. Typically, you might get a computer confirmation from your broker. You enter the order in your computer, it’s executed, and you get a summary statement of what happened.

Tom Basso (of New Market Wizard's fame) did a study in which he estimated that it took 2.5 minutes total elapsed time for him from the time he saw a signal on his quote machine in St. Louis to the time an order was actually executed in Chicago or New York. A lot can happen in 2.5 minutes. That was about 15 years ago, so you may be able to do it faster with today’s computers and the Internet. But the amount of information you have to deal with has probably doubled in the last 15 years as well.

When making an investment decision, the trader may get a verbal suggestion from someone, read a newspaper article or a newsletter, call into a hotline service, or study arbitrary visual representations of the investment’s history (called a daily bar chart, a financial report, etc.). Some investors receive price quotations at their computer via phone lines and then transform the information via computer software into arbitrary transformations known as bar charts, moving averages, oscillators, Market Profile®, etc. Thus, most of these sources of information are coded and recoded many times and are, at best, far removed from the original source.

Even people who work on the floor of an exchange get second-hand information, since the only information available is symbolic (e.g., verbal, written, or hand signals). Investments seldom change hands on the floor of the exchange. They are simply coded in log books or computers as having changed ownership. Direct sensory feedback, the highest quality sensory information, seldom exists for traders.

I only know of one example of traders receiving direct sensory feedback. Some floor traders on various exchanges use noise level as a system for trading. That is, they use the amount of noise on the floor as a signal for action. When the noise level on the floor is high, they become suspicious of what everyone else on the floor is doing and if the noise level later becomes quiet, they go against the crowd. But floor trading is quickly disappearing in favor of electronic market making.

There are many other aspects that go into how we deal with trading data. There is an aspect of responsibility that is important. I also teach internal representation and how that affects the way you view market information. It is also important to understand how you produce your internal models and the structure of internal information. However, this is extensive information, which is covered in an entire chapter of the Peak Performance Home Study Course.

How we process information can have a huge influence on our trading results because we use that information to make trading decisions. When you are studying the market and making your plans for trading ask yourself, “What does this data really represent? What does it really mean to me and how does it help me meet my trading objectives?” Just a little shift in your thinking can sometimes go a long way toward understanding yourself and your objectives better. And in my opinion any advancement in the understanding of one’s self is an advancement in your trading.

About Van Tharp: Trading coach, and author, Dr. Van K. Tharp is widely recognized for his best-selling books and his outstanding Peak Performance Home Study program - a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors.

Click here to learn more about Van Tharp at International Institute of Trading Mastery.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Free Limited-Time Forex Forecasts

Free Forex Forecasts

Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just announced the beginning of their wildly popular FreeWeek event, where they've thrown open the doors to some of their most popular paid services to non-subscribers for one week only.

You can access EWI’s intraday and end-of-day Forex forecasts right now through next Wednesday, May 20.

This unique opportunity only lasts a short time, so don't delay!

Click here to learn more about EWI's Forex Forecasts FreeWeek.

FreeWeek is really free to anyone with a EWI Subscriber or Club EWI User ID and Password. There's no obligation, and no credit card information is required.

During FreeWeek you get complete access to EWI's Currency Specialty Service including intraday and end-of-day charts and forecasts for the following currency pairs:

Dollar Rates and Cross Rates

• DX, U.S. Dollar Index

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Forex Time Machine

Forex Nitty Gritty
How many times have you thought, "If I knew then what I know now"

Well, if I could travel back in time, I'd go back to the day I first heard the word "Forex" and secretly hand my younger self a copy of the Forex training videos that I recently got my hands on that specifically show you how to:

* Skip through all the boring theory & teach you the "must know" foundations of successful Forex trading.

* Reveal a "no-brainer", simple yet deadly effective Forex trading method that you can use to up your odds of success again & again.

* Master the discipline & psychology of Forex trading so you can place trades as if you had "ice in your veins".

* and a TON more crucial Forex insider concepts that take most traders years (& lots of lost trades) to discover.

It would have saved me years of grief.

There's nothing I can do about that now; but if you're like most traders and are still struggling to make consistent gains in the Forex markets, you can avoid all the mistakes most traders make if you just spend an evening or two watching these training videos.

Click here for the Forex Nitty Gritty Training Videos

Friday, May 08, 2009

The Bank Stress Test

Bank Stress Test
Bank Stress Test Video

Wall Street Survivor: If this news doesn't drag down stocks, it's hard to imagine what will. However, futures are pointing higher and the full results of the stress tests won't be released until 5PM eastern.

Where will this needed capital come from? Congress has already indicated that the government will not provide any more capital for financial institutions.

Regulators are ordering some of the largest U.S. banks to find tens of billions of dollars of capital to cushion themselves in the event of a deep economic downturn.

The results of government "stress tests" of the ability of the 19 largest U.S. banks to weather a deep recession will be released on Thursday at 5 p.m. EDT and are expected to show about half the banks need more capital.

While the reported capital shortfalls so far are much larger than analysts had expected, bank shares soared as investors got more clarity over how well the industry will cope with perhaps the most severe recession since World War Two.

Among banks needing capital, Bank of America Corp shares closed up 17.1 percent, Citigroup Inc rose 16.6 percent and Wells Fargo & Co rose 15.6 percent. The Standard & Poor's Financials Index gained 8.1 percent.

"The market likes the certainty of putting numbers on the worst-case scenarios of how much capital these banks need," said Chris Armbruster, an analyst at Al Frank Asset Management in Laguna Beach, California.

Regulators have told Bank of America it needs $34 billion, while Citigroup needs $5 billion and auto and mortgage lender GMAC LLC needs $11.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

Citigroup's amount reflects its previously announced plan to convert some preferred shares into common stock. The various sources were not authorized to speak because the official stress test results are not public.

Wells Fargo needs $15 billion, Morgan Stanley needs $1.5 billion and Regions Financial Corp needs some capital, the Wall Street Journal said.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp does not need capital, a person familiar with the matter said.

American Express Co, Capital One Financial Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and MetLife Inc also do not need capital, the Journal said.

All the companies declined to comment.

In an interview on PBS' "Charlie Rose Show," U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said none of the 19 banks are at risk of insolvency. He also said the government does not want to get involved in day-to-day management at the banks.

Click here to view this Bank Stress Test Video.

Click here to trade stocks and win cash from Wall-Street Survivor.

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Free Trading Webinar May 7 12PM EDT

Universial Market Trader
Free Trading Webinar May 7 12PM EDT

By now, you've probably already heard some good things about the Universal Market Trader System. (You know, it's the comprehensive course that allows you to trade across forex, futures, and stocks including day and swing time frames? Yea. That's the one.)

It's a system that provides custom software, video-based and online training, as well as constant support. Everything you need to start trading the markets like a professional.

But did you also know that in addition to online video training and real-time trading rooms we also offer live, IN-PERSON training? If this is news to you, we can see why. Our in-person training events are kept under tight wraps because we only hold them a few times a year with limited (and we mean *limited*) seats available.

(which also means that when we announce the next big training, registration gets a bit... um, shall we say out-of-hand?)

But if you're receiving this email notification, consider yourself one of the privileged few! You're one of the first to hear that we're currently in the midst of planning our next live, in-person training and we're inviting YOU take come on down (before the registration madness)!

We're hosting a private info webinar on our next exciting live, in-person training this coming Monday, May 11th at 12pm EDT/9am PDT/4:00 GMT. Drop by to hear all about the details, including:

- Who's the ideal attendee for an event like this?
- What exactly will be covered during the training?
- Who will teach the class?
- When and Where is it?
- How much is this going to cost?
- And how you can reserve your seat before anyone else!

Register for Monday's webinar right now so you don't forget - once you pop in your name and email, we'll send you login details as well as a couple reminders so all you have to do is check your inbox.

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Are Successful Forex Traders Just Really Lucky?

Forex Markets
In 2004, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made the following statement about currency trading in a speech before the Economic Club of New York:

“My experience is that exchange markets have become so efficient that virtually all relevant information is embedded almost instantaneously in exchange rates to the point that anticipating movements in major currencies is rarely possible.

”…Despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates is significantly superior to tossing a coin. I am aware that of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests.

"The seeming ability of a number of banking organizations to make consistent profits from foreign exchange trading likely derives not from their insight into future rate changes but from market making.”

Put more simply, successful forex traders are just really, really lucky, according to the Fed's ex-Chairman. I think that thousands of currency speculators around the world, both private and professional ones, would disagree with this statement.

The ex-Chairman didn’t specify what models the Fed tested before deciding that “anticipating movements in major currencies is rarely possible.” But they must have overlooked Elliott wave analysis. Here at EWI, we've been using it to forecast forex markets since the early 1990s – and our analysts aren’t just “tossing a coin.” If you read this column regularly, you’ve seen dozens of examples of successful forecasts we’ve presented here.

No, Elliott wave won't work all the time; what does? But any experienced forex speculator will tell you that you shouldn't rely that much on a forecast, anyway. A good forecast is at best half the battle. Jack D. Schwager, in his excellent "Market Wizards," talks to one successful trader who claims he doesn't use any forecasting method, period. None; all he does is open trades. If the price goes in his direction, he stays with it. If a trade goes in the red, he cuts his losses without hesitation. Over the long run, he's in the black!

So when it comes to your trading, a disciplined strategy and risk management are far more important than any forecast. A good forecasting method is icing on the cake.

Click here for 9 Currency Pairs, 24 Hours a Day. That's the intensity of forecasts you get with EWI's Currency Specialty Service. See if it fits your trading style.

Click here for more forex resources.

Click here for forex auto trader programs.

Monday, May 04, 2009

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
The Week in the Markets

As I scan the stock charts looking for a technically low-risk high-reward trade setup I’m reviewing the market happenings this week. Bank of America is looking to raise $10 billion in capital, AIG is trying to sell its Japanese operations, the Boston Globe maybe going out of business, Obama is looking to end tax breaks for offshore companies, and East Asia is setting up a $120 Billion emergency crisis fund to name a few.

My Weekly Stock Pick

This Monday morning I’m looking at a lot of possible short-sell candidates in the semiconductor chip sector. Maybe they are showing up because last week’s chip sales reported a 30% decline from a year ago. Deteriorating chip demand maybe around for awhile more, but selective chip stocks may be good buy candidates at these valuations longer term. For now, I’m putting a short sell on one big chip maker. Of all the 20 most profitable tech stocks, this one ranks 14th. I’m a buyer at lower prices.

Short-Sell Applied Materials. Ticker AMAT

Sell Entry: 11.89 to 12.69

Stop-Loss: 12,70 and Higher

Take Profit Areas: 11.30, 10.71, 10.12

Applied Materials Company Profile

Applied Materials, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor fabrication equipment worldwide. The company’s Silicon segment provides a range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips or integrated circuits. It offers systems that perform primary processes used in chip fabrication including: atomic layer deposition, chemical vapor deposition, physical vapor deposition, etch, rapid thermal processing, chemical mechanical planarization, and wafer metrology and inspection, as well as systems that etch, clean, measure, and inspect circuit patterns on masks used in the photolithography process. Its Applied Global Services segment offers products and services designed to improve the performance and productivity and reduce the environmental impact of the fab operations of semiconductor, LCD, and solar cell manufacturers. The company’s Display segment provides equipment to fabricate thin film transistor LCDs for televisions, computer displays, and other consumer-oriented electronic applications. It’s Energy and Environmental Solutions offers manufacturing solutions for the generation and conservation of energy. This segment also provides manufacturing solutions for wafer-based crystalline silicon, and glass-based thin film applications to enable customers to increase the conversion efficiency and yield PV devices. In addition, the company offers roll-to-roll vacuum Web coating systems for high-performance deposition of a range of films on flexible substrates for functional, aesthetic, or optical properties, as well as large-area sputtering equipment for the production of low-emissivity and solar control architectural glass. It primarily serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, flat panel liquid crystal displays, and solar photovoltaic cells and modules. Applied Materials, Inc. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

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