Monday, August 31, 2009
The Market Ahead This Week
China stocks are down more this Monday to a 3 month low. Japan Democrats take power after the elections. GM is forming China Venture with the FAW. AIG is looking at its options regarding ILFC. Get ready for increased activity in the markets as traders come back to work next week after the summer and Labor Day holidays. This Friday is the big August employment report. Other important reports this week are the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys, the last Fed meeting minutes, monthly auto sales, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers reports.
My Stock Pick This Week
Is a US real estate investment management company. I don’t see a bottom in USA real estate prices yet, and I don’t see the same for companies involved in USA real estate. If employment continues higher, which I think it will, then GDP is likely heading lower, and real estate prices and companies involved in real estate are likely heading lower too. In my opinion the worst not over for real estate and the financial markets. The worst is yet to come.
Sell Short Apartment Investment and Management – Ticker AIV
Sell Entry: 13.22 to 12.34
Take Profit Areas: 11.96 to 11.20, 11.10 to 9.58, 8.12 to 7.31, 5.85 to 5.09
Apartment Investment and Management Company Profile
Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIMCO) is a real estate investment manager. The firm engages in the acquisition, ownership, management, and redevelopment of apartment properties. It invests in real estate markets of United States. The firm primarily invests in apartment properties. Apartment Investment and Management was founded on January 10, 1994 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Click here to review and trial the Trading Software we used in determining our short position on AIV.
Click the Apartment Investment and Management Stock Chart for a larger view.
Friday, August 28, 2009
By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Click Here for Dr Van Tharp 2009 Trading Workshop Schedule
This article is an excerpt from Part 1 Working on Yourself: The Critical Component That Makes It All Work, from the book, Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets
I’m a neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) modeler and a coach for traders. As an NLP modeler, I encounter a number of people who excel in something, determine what they do in common, and then determine what beliefs, mental strategies, and mental states are required to perform each task. Once I have this information, I can teach those tasks to others and expect to get similar results. My job as a coach is to find talented people and make sure they learn and follow the fundamentals.
I remember doing a workshop with the Market Wizards Ed Seykota and Tom Basso around 1990. All three of us agreed that trading consists of three parts: personal psychology, money management (which I subsequently renamed position sizing (TM) in my book Trade Your Way ...), and system development. We also agreed that trading psychology contributes about 60% to success and position sizing contributes another 30%, which leaves about 10% for system development. Furthermore, most traders ignore the first two areas and don’t really have a trading system. That’s why 90% of them fail.
Over the years I’ve done extensive modeling in all three areas, and I now disagree slightly with our conclusions in 1990. First, I would argue that trading psychology accounts for 100% of success. Why? This conclusion is based on two findings. First, people generally are programmed to do everything the wrong way. They have internal biases that seem to lead them to do the exact opposite of what is required for success. For example, if you are the most important factor in your trading, you should spend the most time working on yourself, but the majority of people totally ignore the “you” factor in their success. Read over the checklists in this part that deal with good trading. If you’ve worked extensively in all the areas listed, you are probably very successful and are certainly a rarity.
Second, every task I model requires that I find the beliefs, mental states, and mental strategies that are involved. All three ingredients are purely psychological, and so it’s hard not to conclude that everything is psychological.
I now think that there are five components to trading well:
1. The trading process. The things you need to do on a day-to-day basis to be a good trader.
2. The wealth process. Exploring your relationship with money and why you do or do not have enough to trade with. For example, most people believe that they win the money game by having the most toys and that they can have it all right now if their monthly payments are low enough. This means that they save zero dollars and are over their heads in debt. If this is you, it also means that you don’t have enough money to trade.
3. Developing and maintaining a business plan to guide your trading. Trading is as much a business as is any other area. The entry requirements are much easier because all you have to do is deposit money in an account, sign a few forms, and start trading. However, the entry requirements for successful trading require that you master all the areas listed here. That requires a lot of commitment, which most people do not have. Instead, they want trading to be easy, fast, and very profitable.
4. Developing a system. People often consider their system to be the magic secret for picking the right stocks or commodities. In reality, entry into the market is one of the least important aspects of good trading. The keys to a moneymaking system are elements such as determining your objectives and the way you exit a position.
5. Position sizing to meet your objectives. We’ve discovered through our simulation games that 100 people at the end of a set of 50 trades will have 100 different equities. (They all get the same 100 trade results). This extreme variability of performance can be attributed to only two factors: how much they risked on each trade (i.e., position sizing) and the personal psychology that determined their position sizing decision.
Based on the five components of trading well, rate yourself by asking the following questions:
How well have I mastered the discipline of trading well each day? Do I do a daily self-analysis or a daily mental rehearsal to begin each day? If not, why not? (I will give you a lot of ideas about how to improve in this area throughout the Super Trader book).
Do I really have enough money for trading to make sense? If you do not, you probably need to work on yourself and the wealth process.
Do I have a working business plan to guide my trading? If you don’t, you are not alone. We estimate that only about 5% of traders have a written business plan. Then again, perhaps you’ve heard that only about 5% to 10% of all traders are really successful. Super Trader will guide you toward developing this kind of working document.
Do I have a set of objectives thoroughly written out to guide my trading? Most people don’t. How can you develop a system to meet your objectives without having objectives?
How much attention have I paid to the “how much” factor: position sizing? Do I have a plan for position sizing my system to meet my objectives? It is through position sizing that you either meet or fail to meet your objectives.
How much time do I spend working on myself? You have to overcome your psychological issues and develop the discipline necessary to carry out the processes described above, which are necessary for success.
Most of the items described here could be the topic for an entire book. However, my intention was to give you an overview of what is required for successful trading, and my job as a coach is to find talented people and coach them on following the fundamentals I’ve described them here.
About Van Tharp: Trading coach, and author, Dr. Van K. Tharp is widely recognized for his best-selling books and his outstanding Peak Performance Home Study Program - a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. You can learn more about Van Tharp at the Van Tharp Institute
Thursday, August 27, 2009
When I first saw this news headline this morning (Aug. 25), I had to read it three times before it sunk in. See if it stumps you, too:
FOREX-Dollar dips on upbeat U.S. data, Bernanke news
NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened on Tuesday as generally upbeat U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's reappointment encouraged investors to take on riskier trades.
You can understand my confusion: the U.S. economic data was good, but the USD lost anyway. In all fairness, the article gave a very plausible explanation: the U.S. economy is improving, so there is no further need to rush into dollars for safety, so the buck loses.
But let me ask you this: Had the USD gained on Tuesday instead, can you imagine headlines reading something like this?
FOREX-Dollar gains on upbeat U.S. data, Bernanke news
Sounds just as plausible, doesn't it? If anything, even more so. But think of what you just did: You have successfully used the same news story to explain a bearish and a bullish action in the same market. So let me ask you.
If another positive U.S. economic report comes out tomorrow, will it be bullish or bearish for the dollar? The euro? If the news is bad instead -- will you go long or short the EUR/USD? I wouldn't know what to answer, either -- if the news were my only strategic resource.
"Fundamental" indicators can change with the wind because they apply only to what has already happened. It's easy to "explain" past market action. There is a better way -- you can predict currencies markets instead, by using technical analysis.
Elliott wave is all about pattern recognition in charts. Right now, the daily EUR/USD chart shows a potentially completed 5-wave Elliott wave pattern. (Chart modified; copied from Elliott Wave International's intensive Currency Specialty Service):
This potentially completed 5-wave Elliott wave pattern likely portends a major opportunity straight ahead in the EUR/USD. And it has nothing to do with good or bad economic news -- just crowd psychology of forex traders.
Get complete details inside EWI's intensive Currency Specialty Service now.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
By Bud Conrad/David Galland, Editors, The Casey Report
While we aren’t contrarian for the sake of being contrary, more often than not that is the position in which we find ourselves. Today, with the media falling all over itself to paint a rosy outlook for the economy while simultaneously voicing encouragement to the new administration in its remake of the nation in previously unimaginable ways, it’s hard not to question our conviction that the worst is yet to come.
Could the economy really recover this quickly from the traumatic trifecta of a record real estate bubble, leviathan levels of debt, and a global credit collapse? We don’t see it as remotely possible, but yet… but yet… there for everyone to see are countless happy headlines and breathless exhortations that the worst is behind us.
So, is it Green Shoots or Greater Depression?
Getting the answer right is critical, because from it flow serious consequences to each of us. And not just in our investment portfolios but in how we organize our lives.
Looking for an evidence trail leading to the correct conclusion, Casey Chief Economist Bud Conrad once again put in very long hours digging through the data. Here’s what he uncovered, about the claims of green shoots, and what may actually be in store for the economy moving forward.
Rather than accepting the many commentaries that our economy may be improving, let’s focus for a minute on the important forces that will play out over the decade ahead, and the minor improvements – from disastrous levels – that have given commentators such hope that the worst of our problems are behind us.
What Do the “Green Shoots” Really Look Like?
While some individual measures of economic activity appear slightly less dire than previously, it’s important to understand that most improvements are largely attributable to government intervention.
For example, at the onset of this crisis, commercial paper spreads rose to the point that this important source of corporate short-term funding had virtually shut down. Today, those spreads have returned to almost normal levels. But the bulk of this improvement is not due to a return of confidence in the economic system but rather to the Federal Reserve directly intervening in the market with several hundred billions of dollars.
And mortgage interest rates, which briefly dropped into the 4% range, did so not because of a surge in creditworthy borrowers or eager lenders… but rather because the Federal Reserve launched a program of buying $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities. Doing its part, the Treasury has poured billions into Fannie and Freddie and provides guarantees for their mortgages.
In these and many other instances, the "green shoots" that optimists have spotted are really just the visible manifestations of the massive interventions by an increasingly bankrupt government.
Indeed, the massive fiscal stimulus provided by the federal government – and by the Fed, which has slashed interest rates to near zero, purchased mountains of toxic waste, and bought up Treasury debt with billions in freshly printed money – are unprecedented in the history of the U.S.
But even a cursory review of key metrics reveals continuing declines in housing prices, rising unemployment, and slowing consumption as measured by falling retail sales, GDP, and the collapse of world trade. Sure, housing unit sales recovered a little recently, but that’s due mostly to the distress sales of foreclosed homes and houses worth far less than the outstanding mortgage. These are not signs of a strong economy.
The only rational conclusion to be drawn is that the crisis is far from over and that we are not likely to see a strong recovery anytime soon. In fact, things are likely to get much worse before they get better.
The massive debt expansion that played a crucial role in creating the disastrously overleveraged economy is not shrinking. As you can see in the chart above, it’s growing ever bigger.
That debt growth was fostered by U.S. government debt growth, which is now getting out of control.
Don’t just believe what you hear about “green shoots,” or you could lose some serious money. To find out what’s really going on and where all this is leading, read the rest of Bud’s in-depth article here.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Normally I post my weekly stock pick on Mondays, but I missed it yesterday, sorry long weekend. I’m posting it today.
The Market This Week
ECB Mersch says current recovery not sustainable, and I agree. Shanghai shares are down big on policy concerns. The Fed loses a lawsuit demanding transparency. If you can’t trust the Fed who can you trust? Joke, at least yourself that’s for sure. Some former athletes financial adviser is charge in another Ponzi scam. Hearing that Asia can grow like the USA back in the 1950’s. I agree 110%. Citibank may be facing another $40 plus billion in loan losses, and energy prices look to be a little toppy currently.
My Stock Pick This Week
It’s a sell short on a Japanese ADR that is involved in the industrial electrical goods equipment manufacturing. This is a little bit of a tough one because this stock has been in a steady uptrend for the last year. If the broad market is looking to slide which I think it could anytime, this pick may be a nice low-risk high-reward winner. If not, I got a tight stop-loss on it. There’s always another taxi coming along, and there will always be other stock buy or sell opportunities coming along also.
Sell Short Nidec – Ticker NJ
Sell Entry: 18.40 to 18.15
Take Profit Areas: 17.92 to 17.44, 17.14 to 16.98, 16.83 to 16.68, 16.10 to 15.95, 13.96 to 13.83
Nidec Company Profile
Nidec Corporation engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of small precision motors, mid-size motors, machinery, and electronic and optical components. Its small precision motors include spindle motors for computer hard disk drives, motors for optical disk drives, and small precision fans and other small motors. The company's mid-size motors are used in automobiles, electric household appliances, and industrial equipment. Nidec's machinery products comprise power transmission equipment, semi-conductor manufacturing supplies, test systems, measuring equipment, card readers, industrial robots, and factory automation systems; and electronic and optical components consist of camera shutters, camera lends units, encoders, switches, trimmer potentiometers, motor driven actuator units, optical pickup units, and processing and precision plastic mold products. The company also offers auto parts, pivot assemblies, and other services. In addition, it manufactures and sells motors and actuators, such as air flow system, seat positioning system, body closure system, braking, and drive-line and steering system; and base plate die-casting and top cover used in hard disk drives. The company serves manufacturers of hard disk drives, and various automation equipment, electric household appliances, home video game consoles, telecommunication and audio-visual equipment, and automotive components. It has operations principally in Japan, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Thailand, the Philippines, China, and Vietnam. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Kyoto, Japan.
Click here to review and trial the Trading Software we used in determining our short position on NJ.
Click the Nidec Stock Chart for a larger view.
Friday, August 21, 2009
The following is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. Elliott Wave International is currently offering Bob's recent Elliott Wave Theorist Free
On February 23, EWT called for the S&P to bottom in the 600s and then begin a sharp rally, the biggest since the 2007 high. The S&P bottomed at 667 on March 6. Then the stock market and commodities went almost straight up for three months as the dollar fell.
On March 18, Treasury bonds had their biggest up day ever, thanks to the Fed’s initiating its T-bond buying program. The next day, EWT reiterated our bearish stance on Treasury bonds. T-bond futures declined relentlessly from the previous day’s high at 130-15 to a low of 111-21 on June 11.
That’s when there were indications of impending trend changes. The June 11 issue called for interim tops in stocks, metals and oil and a temporary bottom in the dollar. The Dow topped that day and fell nearly 800 points; silver reversed and fell from $16 to $12.45; gold slid about $90; and oil, which had just doubled, reversed and fell from $73.38 to $58.32. The dollar simultaneously rallied and traced out a triangle for wave 4. Bonds bounced as well. As far as I can tell, our scenarios at all degrees are all on track.
Corrective patterns can be complex, so we should hesitate to be too specific about the shape this bear market rally will take. But from lows on July 8 (intraday) and 10 (close), the stock market may have begun the second phase of advance that will fulfill our ideal scenario for a three-wave (up-down-up) rally. In concert with rising stocks, bonds have started another declining wave, and the dollar appears to have turned down in wave 5 (see chart in the June issue), heading toward its final low. Although commodities should bounce, their wave patterns suggest that many key commodities will fail to make new highs this year in this second and final phase of partial recovery in the overall financial markets.
Meanwhile, our forecast for a change in people’s attitudes to a less pessimistic outlook is proceeding apace. Here are some of the reports evidencing this change:
More than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year. [The] vast majority pick 3rd quarter as the time. (AP, 5/27)
Manufacturing and housing reports this week may offer signs that the recession-stricken U.S. economy is within months of hitting bottom, economists said. (USA, 6/15)
Fewer people say they’ve prospered over the past year than in decades, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. Over the past two months, however, expectations for the future have brightened significantly amid rising optimism about a stock market rebound and economic turnaround. “I think the administration is going in the right direction,” says… Now 36% of those surveyed in the Gallup-Healthways well-being poll say the economy is getting better. That’s not exactly head-over-heels exuberance, but it is double the number who felt that way at the beginning of the year and a notable spike in the nation’s frame of mind. Thirty-three percent say they’re satisfied with the way things are going in the United States; in January, just 13% did. (USA, 6/23/09)
If only to confirm the socionomic causality at work, an economist quoted in the article above muses, “The one anomaly in the puzzle is that people shouldn’t be feeling better because the jobs market is so terrible and unemployment is likely to keep rising.” Of course it would be an anomaly, and people should not feel better, if mood were exogenously caused. But it is endogenously regulated, and it precedes social actions, which produce events such as job creation and elimination. That people feel better is evident in our rising sociometer, the stock market. If the rally continues, economists will soon agree that the Fed’s “quantitative easing” and Congress’ massive spending are “working.” Those predicting more inflation and hyperinflation will have the last seeming confirmation of their opinions. Then, a few months from now, some economists will probably express similar puzzlement when the stock market starts plummeting again despite the fact that the economy has improved.
But all of these considerations are temporary. Conditions are relative, and behind the scenes, the depression has been, and still is, grinding away.
For more information, download the FREE 10-page issue of Bob Prechter’s recent Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
I consider myself a law abiding, stand-up citizen. You know, I always try to do what's right. I'm not one that condones cheating or telling secrets.
That's why when I came across this sensational trading package, I was faced with a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde moment. I knew it really wasn't cheating, but as I plowed through the information, it sure did feel like it.
Even as I compose this email, I wonder if I'm doing the right thing. Then, I think again and I know down deep that it would be a crime for me to horde these jaw-dropping tricks of the trade.
So I'm passing this along to you. Click at your own risk:
Have I scared you? Ok, let me explain what you'll be exposed to by downloading this evil genius trading package.'
An Interview with the Evil Genius Himself
* It's a 'behind closed doors' interview with an evil genius trader & system developer extraordinaire.
*I've had the pleasure of personally speaking with him before and can honestly say that with over 20 years of trading under his belt, Mark knows. his. stuff.
(In our inner trading guru circle, Mark is known as that quiet guy who has alot going on 'up there.' You know, he's not all about the limelight or craving his 15 minutes of fame. He's much more calculated than that. I've seen people try to crack his shell, only to be met with a smile and a nod (and your butt whipped when it comes to trading!)).
*This interview exposes not only Mark's clear strengths, but his embarrassing flip-ups' when it comes to his trade career. It's *quite* the revealing interview.
Make sure you listen to it now:
The Classified Cheat Sheet
Basically once this is implemented it will become the 'make it or break it' tool in your trader's tool box. (You won't even believe how fast & easy this can be!)
*Find out THE number 1 step-by-step plan to get a beginner trader up and running in no time flat.
*Discover what the heck this 'trailing' business is all about? And most importantly, how can it make money?
*An INTRICATE look at the nasdaq emini 144 tick chart.
*Plus 8 other trade teachings that you can quickly skim and nearly pick-up through osmosis.
I know I've struggled with giving this out, but I must say I'm looking forward to watching you transform into the evil trading genius you were meant to be.
Download it here:
Good day and good trading!
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
"How To Develop a Winning Trading System That Fits You" Germany Systems Development Workshop
August 21-23, Berlin Germany, The Ellington Hotel
"I’ve proven this formula to help develop top traders and investors. Now, I want to offer you the same incredible opportunity to make big money and I’ll take all the initial risk." — Dr Van Tharp
Do You Want Bigger and More Consistent Profits from the Market?
If you want consistency and you want to make profits from the market — then you'll want to attend this three-day course. We’ll show you little-known, closely guarded secrets that you’re not likely to find unless you accidentally stumble upon them yourself.
Are you a low-risk investor who just wants to make small, consistent profits each month with only an occasional loss? We can show you how to develop a system that will allow you to develop a unique methodology that will give you that kind of consistency!
Are you a gutsy trader who’d like to make yearly profits of 100%, 200% or even 1,000% per year? It’s possible, although risky, and we can show you how to do that! The interesting thing is that you can do it in such a way that the only money you are risking is the money you’ve already made from the market. That’s real leverage!
Why develop my own system? Isn’t it easier to just go buy a system with proven results?
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of trading systems that work. But most people, after purchasing a preexisting system, will not follow the system and trade it exactly as it was intended. Why not? Because the system doesn’t fit them or their style of trading.
One of the biggest secrets of successful trading is finding a trading system that fits you. In fact, Jack Schwager, after interviewing enough “market wizards” to write two books, concluded that the most important characteristic of all good traders was that they had found a system of methodology that was right for them.
When someone else develops a system for you, you don't know what biases they might have. Developing your own system allows for compatibility with your own beliefs, objectives, personality and edges.
Furthermore, most of the system development software for sale really encourages some of the trading biases that I see as detrimental to overall trading success.
For example, give a system developer enough leeway and that person will have a system that perfectly predicts the moves in the market and makes thousands of dollars on paper with certain historical markets. Most software allows people to optimize to their heart's content. Eventually, they will end up with a meaningless system that makes a fortune on the data from which it was obtained, but performs miserably in real trading.
Most system development software is designed because people want to know the perfect answer to the markets. They want to be able to predict the markets perfectly. As a result, you can buy software now for a few hundred dollars that will allow you to overlay numerous studies over past market data. Within a few minutes, you can begin to think that the markets are perfectly predictable. And that belief will stay with you until you attempt to trade the real market instead of the historically optimized market. Many trading accounts have plummeted from this very thinking. One “sure-thing” trade placed without proper position sizing can wipe some traders completely out of the game.
Only about 5% of the world’s traders and 20% of the world’s investors, consistently make big money. What these winners do is not complex. In fact, simplicity is one of the keys to making money. And you can do it too! I’ve modeled this process and can teach you how to develop your own trading system that fits your own style of trading.
Our job in this course is to teach you what you need to know to develop your own system. The material you will learn is not market or time-frame specific. So whether you trade stocks, futures, currencies or gold, etc., or whether you place 50 trades per day or 50 trades per year, you will learn all of the components that work in any system.
Three critical secrets you can adopt to develop a superb wealth-building formula.
If you concentrate on these three secrets -- which 95% of all traders and investors totally ignore — then you can vault yourself into a class that only a few have been able to achieve.
1. You must concentrate on the most important task of system development. If you do it properly, it will take at least half of your time during the development process. When you learn what it is, you’ll say, "Of course, it’s important," but you’ll still probably spend very little time on it.
That critical task is developing sound objectives.
Jack Schwager, after writing two Market Wizard books, concluded that the most important characteristic of the top traders and investors he interviewed was that they had adopted a trading system to fit them. But to develop a system that fits you, you need to really think about what you want. There are at least 30 questions you need to address when you develop a trading system. It’s not a trivial task.
What is an objective?
Your objective is your goal, your target. It is the things that you want your system to accomplish.
Objectives set the roadmap for the entire system development process. How would one know how to get someplace if they didn’t know where they were going first? It is easy enough to see that if one trader had an objective such as “I want a system that trades long-term stocks, that requires my attention only once each week and makes 20% per year” compared to a trader’s objectives of “I want to actively trade my mother’s retirement account for four hours each day, without holding overnight positions” – two completely different systems would be required. The objectives or goals are very different. There are endless configurations of objectives. The point is, you need to specifically know what it is that you are trying to attain and only then can you develop a trading system that will help you attain it.
"I have to tell you how thrilled and excited I am about the systems course I was recently certified in. I believe that course was designed especially for me, I got so much out of it. You did a great job presenting the course material. You were fabulous, amazing, energetic and your enthusiasm was contagious! I also appreciate your personal availability between the scheduled meetings. It was an extra bonus to have some one on one conversations specifically about my trading system, testing methodology and personal coaching on how to overcome our problems with actually trading our system.
"Of course, I must give some credit to my fellow attendees. They were great, and played all out, further enhancing the value of the course. But without your expert facilitation to encourage more participation it would not have occurred in the way that it did.
"Since I left North Carolina, I have had an opportunity to spend a week with my client to re-create what I learned in the course. We got down and listed our core beliefs, our objectives, and looked long and hard at our biases. From this information we designed an entry, exit and simple position sizing strategy that fit our objectives. Actually, we have a working system and it turns out that just a little modification to that existing system is what we really want to meet our objectives. Now I'm all excited, I can hardly sleep, because Chuck handed me the tools and methodology I needed to effectively verify and back test this new system. I just need to type faster to keep up with my enthusiasm." — B. Cupps
2. A good trading system has 10 key components. Most people ignore six or seven of them when they do their research. In fact, you’ll rarely see a book on systems development that covers more than six of them. That’s the limitation the average trader has in doing research. You want big profits with as little risk as possible, so you want every advantage possible when you start to develop such a system.
You should be able to take advantage of 8 of these components easily after the course. And, with a little more effort, you’ll be able to use all 10. If you use all 10 with competence, you’ll be among the top 0.1% of all traders and investors in the world.
3. Most people concentrate on the least important element in trading system design — entry. They also ignore the most important element — position sizing. At the "How to Develop A Winning Trading System That Fits You" workshop, you’ll learn at least three types of position sizing systems that will help you lower your overall risk, while at the same time, helping you achieve more consistent performance.
If you’re more adventurous, we’ll show you how to go for really big returns using the market’s money. When you use these super moneymaking techniques, you could make 1,000% on your money each year, risking only the money that the market has given you.
You’ll learn exactly how one trader turned $10,000 into $1.1 million in less than a year. In addition, we’ll also show you how a group of traders have taken over $100 million out of the market over the last 10 years! Learn the advantages and disadvantages of both these styles.
Click here to review and register for the Van Tharp Germany Trading Workshop
Monday, August 17, 2009
The Market Week Ahead
Hewlett-Packard is reporting earnings this week. It’s back to school time of the month which could increase current computer and other related sales. Inflation is still flat. I would suggest it could stay that way with the economic slowdown in certain parts of the world still slow, although the Asia region still has brisk growth, especially in China. The mortgage mess is not over yet as senior citizens are having some trouble with their reverse mortgages. El-Erian of Pimco is saying the market is overly optimistic right now. I agree with him, and the market could go still higher from here very possibly. Although some strategists are calling for an abrupt big fall soon, again possibly. Traders are talking about where to take profits. Seems to me they are looking for the exits right now before if and when a very possible selloff stampede hits.
My Stock Pick This Week
I’m selling short a big energy company this week. The fundamentals don’t look so great moving forward right now, but I never really cared about the past fundamental reports so much anyhow. I’m more interested in the fundamentals going forward, and I don’t have the resources and information to make that forecast, and especially in an economic world like this right now. This energy company stock price chart has a low-risk high-reward trade setup opportunity in my opinion. My trading software helps me with that. Check my stop-loss, it’s very tight. Check the take profit areas, they provide a 3:1 plus reward risk ratio that I’m looking for. Long or short, good or bad, right or wrong, I stick to my system and I stay out of financial trouble.
Sell Short Devon Energy – Ticker DVN
Sell Entry: 65.44 to 62.20
Take Profit Areas: 58.96 to 52.48, 49.99 to 48.11, 46.36 to 44.62, 37.54 to 36.13
Devon Energy Profile
Devon Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in oil and gas exploration, development, and production; the transportation of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids; and the processing of natural gas. The company owns oil and gas properties principally in the Mid-Continent area of the central and southern United States; the Permian Basin within Texas and New Mexico; the Rocky Mountains area of the United States; the offshore areas of the Gulf of Mexico; and the onshore areas of the Gulf Coast, principally in south Texas and south Louisiana. It also owns oil and gas properties in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, Canada. In addition, the company owns properties located in Azerbaijan, Brazil, and China. Further, Devon Energy's marketing and midstream operations include the marketing of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids, as well as the construction and operation of pipelines, storage and treating facilities, and gas processing plants in North America. As of December 31, 2008, the company had proved developed reserves of approximately 1,934 million barrel of oil equivalent. Devon Energy sells its gas production to various customers, including pipelines, utilities, gas marketing firms, industrial users, and local distribution companies; and crude oil production to refiners and remarketers. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Click here to review and trial the Trading Software we used in determining our short position on DVN.
Click the Devon Energy Stock Chart for a larger view.
Friday, August 14, 2009
There are people out there who have tremendous success trading with Fapturbo and Fapturbo Evolution.
One of these guys is Rob Casey, As a physicist he developed software to analyze massive amounts of data from particle physics experiments conducted at the CERN particle accelerator (this was back in the mid 90's).
See Rob Caseys Fapturbo guide here:
He quickly realized the programming and analysis skills he had developed be applied to the markets. It was then that He realized just how many of his fellow physicists had gone off to wall street to develop trading software for the big trading firms
for some really serious money.
He`s always been one to do things on his own so rather than joining the ranks on wall street He focused on developing his own automated trading systems which he`s now been doing for about 8 years.
He had started developing trading robots in the equities market, but eventually left equities for the forex market because of the frustration of the "up tick rule" when trying to short equities.
Essentially when the retail forex market opened up Rob knew this was were the best trading opportunities could be found and has focused on forex ever since.
A few years ago he spent 18 months on a team developing commercial forex software for a Canadian currency company. They got what they needed from him and he got what he needed from them ... some new trading and programming techniques to add to his toolbox.
We where truly honored when Rob said:
"I've seen a lot of trading robots over the years and have developed many myself, but FAP Turbo was the first one I was willing to fully endorse. I've been mentoring traders and beginning trading system developers for a number of years and have
discovered that 90% of the problems traders face are related to their lack of understanding of money management and a basic understanding of probability and how it applies to trading. As a result most traders become their own worse enemy
but trading without a plan and completely misunderstanding the results they are getting by not knowing how to properly put it into perspective.
I've found that by helping traders understand these very basic concepts and how to use the specific FAP turbo settings to achieve their money and risk management goals they almost always see much better results over the long run. This has been the central goal of my guide ... to help people understand that their results need to be
put into the perspective of the "long run" and that with patience and proper use of the FAP turbo settings they will see much better results"
Rob Casey- Physicist
Rob Casey has developed the Ultimate Fap Turbo Guide that shows:
How to go beyond the lowest common denominator with his FAP Turbo Expert Guide and let him show you how you can tweak the settings in FAP Turbo to apply professional money management techniques and turn your FAP Turbo system into a virtual bank machine!
* Fully Tested with FAP Turbo v47
* Will Also Cover the new FAP Turbo Evolution
* Learn to tweak the FAP Turbo settings CORRECTLY for maximum profit
* Avoid the LotRiskReductor Mistake
* Discover the truth about FAP Turbo brokers and how to get them working for you NOT
* Know the difference between low risk and high risk scalper strategies
* Apply Professional Risk & Money Management strategies that squeeze most money with the least risk
* Road Map for Success trading plan quickly moves you from beginner to advanced FAP
* Get the FAP Turbo Help you need to succeed!
* Online guide is always up to date for each new release of FAP Turbo
Grab your copy here:
We from the Forex Guru Club have done an in depth check of the guide and can only recommend it for those who want to put the trading odds in their favor. Its a great written guide with videos and frequently updated. Rob put`s all his programming
and analyzing skills into this guide and shows things that even we have overlooked :)
In robs own words:
"Anyone can do well with FAP Turbo, but if you're serious about breaking the bank then my FAP Turbo guide is exactly what you need!"
Since he is going to increase the pricing on Saturday (48 hours left) we truly recommend to pick this up to customize your robot for maximum performance and minimum risk.
Grab your discounted copy now but be quick about it before the price is raised!
Click here for the FAP Turbo Automated Forex Trading Robot used on the Metatrader4 Forex Trading Platform.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
By D.R. Barton, Jr. of Van Tharp Institute
Finding Your Sweet Spot in Today's Market Environment
Click here for Dr Van Tharp's 2009 Trading Workshop Schedule
“The only man I know who behaves sensibly is my tailor; he takes my measurements anew each time he sees me. The rest go on with their old measurements and expect me to fit them." George Bernard Shaw
My son Josh is becoming a fine golfer. After playing for his high school team as a freshman, he’s continuing to improve. I expect him to break 80 regularly by the end of the fall.
Watching with admiration as he worked on his game, I have seen him develop two specific behaviors that are beneficial for trading as well. First he has begun to make really good on-course adjustments. If he starts pushing the ball right or tugging a little hook to the left, he is making the changes within a swing or two to split the fairway again.
Every good trader or investor has to make similar adjustments to their game in the markets. It doesn’t matter if you’re trading a purely mechanical system or a rule based discretionary system, or something in between. In any case, you need to make adjustments at prudent intervals as your trading systems provide you with feedback relating to the dynamics of the market environment. “Set it and forget it” systems are a myth; the markets are way too sophisticated for that approach to work.
The second thing that I see in Josh is his ability to consistently perform in certain situations. He is uncanny with putts from about 4 - 5 feet. He has developed a great instinct on draining those putts, which comes from many hours of practice. I know that when he gets in that situation he has a definite advantage.
In a similar way, certain strategies have distinct advantages in certain market situations. And right now, swing trading strategies are finding a definite advantage in the current market conditions.
In the hyper-volatile markets of last fall, many swing trading strategies had difficulty working well in the extreme volatility. Many of the best designed swing trading strategies gave fewer entry signals because the market conditions were less than optimal. Others had to be completely “switched off” when volatility reached almost 2x the highest levels ever seen before. At that time, day trading was the way to go as most intraday strategies feast on volatility.
On the flip side, extremely low volatility periods generally produce fewer opportunities for quality moves. In many swing strategies, these conditions also usually mean fewer quality signals. This happened in the June 2003 – January 2007 time frame, though there were several interspersed periods of moderately increased volatility.
Swing strategies typically thrive in moderate volatility climates like we have right now. Since mid-spring, volatility has been contracting and has produced an almost ideal climate for swing traders.
So what characterizes swing trading? Swing trading can be roughly defined as catching the “swings” in market price in a time frame that is between an overnight trade and 10 – 20 days (depending on who is doing the defining). In short, swing trading looks to catch swings within the larger time frame trend. This means that swing trading concentrates on intermediate trends or intermediate reactions against larger trends.
While swing trading happens to be in the market condition “sweet spot” right now, it is also one of the hottest developing areas of trading. The swing timeframe is growing more attractive to a large number of people for several reasons:
• Swing trading strategies can fit into almost anyone’s schedule. Screening can be done and orders can be placed or adjusted before or after market hours.
• Many consider swing trading to be the timeframe that provides the most efficient use of trading capital.
• Swing time frames can present many more opportunities than longer term trading.
• Transaction costs in swing trading are lower than day trading.
• There are swing trading styles for almost any type of trader: trend followers, breakout players, pullback traders, counter trend players, channel traders—the variety is almost endless.
I’m excited that the markets are cooperating so well with the timing of our swing trading workshop in September. I’ll be teaching Tactical Pro Swing Trading along with Christopher Castroviejo. We’ll show the tactics that he and I have developed and used in a combined 60+ years in the markets. We’ll be digging into mechanical strategies while adding some street smart savoir faire to the mix. We also have a great section on using options in the swing timeframe that can add a “power” tool to your systems toolbox.
Christopher and I will teach all of the key swing trading steps in detail at the workshop, but I’ll share a few with you here:
• Learning curves can be shortened but there’s no substitute for spending time studying the markets and the sectors with their individual characteristics. Make it your daily practice to look at charts of the broad indexes as well as the sectors and individual stocks that interest you. Every swing trader that I’ve talked to or modeled does these daily reviews with a disciplined zeal!
• Keep your stops with a ruthless determination. In every workshop we hear horror stories from traders who knew better but still violated this key rule of trading survival.
• Know the beliefs behind your trading strategy inside and out. The better you understand why your strategy has an edge, the better you’ll be able to extract profits from the market based on that edge.
In addition to the three day swing workshop, we are going to teach an optional fourth day specifically dedicated to band trading. These powerful methods are an excellent complement to the three days of swing strategies taught at the workshop.
For example, band trades are setting up very well right now. A quick glance at the chart of Nvidia (NVDA) below shows that it is following the broader market’s volatility contraction and that standard Bollinger Bands are containing the price action quite well.
Viewed as a broad 'style' of trading, band trading and the other swing systems we teach can be rewarding from several perspectives. For a lot of traders, swing trading fits into even the busiest schedules. Swing trading offers numerous opportunities to catch lots of moves that the longer-term players miss. It also helps you get out of the way of some of the more dangerous market moves.
Attend the Tactical Pro Swing Workshop and you’ll leave with the confidence to trade profitably at a whole new level.
We look forward to seeing you in September.
Great trading, D. R.
About D.R. Barton, Jr.: A passion for the systematic approach to the markets and lifelong love of teaching and learning have propelled D.R. Barton, Jr. to the top of the investment and trading arena. He is a regularly featured guest on both Report on Business TV, and WTOP News Radio in Washington, D.C., and has been a guest on Bloomberg Radio. His articles have appeared on SmartMoney.com and Financial Advisor magazine. You may contact D.R. at the Van Tharp Institute
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Click Here To Open a Free AVAFX Forex CFD Account
Daily AVAFX Traders Global Markets Review/Preview, August 12, 2009
Risk Assets Down on Profit Taking Ahead of BoE, FOMC Statements
Stocks: Asia ends up, Europe, US close lower on profit taking on Tuesday ahead of BoE, FOMC statements. Early Wednesday trade in Asia also shows stocks down.
Forex: Risk currencies down against safer-havens, JPY biggest gainer.
Commodities: Crude down below $70 dropping for 3rd day, steady near $70 in Wednesday Asia trade.
Gold down 5th day to $944 on weak demand, risk aversion and profit taking ahead of FOMC, profit taking, as USD stays strong on dropping stocks and rising risk aversion ahead of FOMC. Longer term, gold producer forward hedging hitting multi-year lows as producers want more exposure to future spot prices, suggesting that miners believe higher prices are on the way.
Meaning: Profit taking on rising risk aversion favors safe haven currencies, shorting risk assets in short term.
Why: Given high prices on risk assets they are vulnerable to pullback from rising risk-aversion from Tuesday's: negative US inventory, productivity, labor cost numbers. Declining inventories suggest businesses don't see recovery coming, and the productivity and labor cost figures suggest US workers are earning less and will be spending less. More importantly, uncertainty from BoE and FOMC statements today, both of which could move markets, as detailed below.
Trading Opportunity: Stocks at highs, dollar deeply shorted, be ready when key calendar events (see below) hit this week or if stocks moves down to short risk assets, go long USD. See other headlines for more on why markets remain overbought, overpriced, vulnerable to pullback. See other headlines on banking troubles, which also suggest traders should be ready for pullback, though timing is not clear.
Traders Should Monitor: BoE and FOMC statements today. USD and GBP could be big movers on these.
Stocks Monday Market Wrap
• Asia up (N225 +0.58%, HS +0.13%, ST +1.87%)
• Europe: Down (FTSE: -1.08%, DAX -2.44%, CAC 40 -1.38%)
• US: Down (S&P -1.27% NSDQ -1.13 % Dow -1.03% )
• Asia towards close: up (N225 -1.42%, HS -3.01%, ST -1.16%)
Weakness among financial stocks led to a broad-based selling effort that resulted in the stock market's worst single-session percentage decline in one month. Though stocks finished off of session lows, they still closed in weak fashion, unable to garner support and limit losses as they did in the previous session.
The downturn left the S&P 500 just below 995, which is considered a support level below the psychologically significant 1000. Many market watchers regard 990 as the next level of support, followed by 980.
EUR: The final print of German CPI data was revised up fractionally to -0.5% y/y versus consensus -0.6% y/y. Eurozone July CPI is expected to remain at -0.6%. ECB President Trichet, though, said the recent drop in inflation rates was due to base effects and expects inflations rates to turn positive again later in the year. EURUSD looks likely to range trade ahead of the next potential catalyst, such as a more-hawkish FOMC or a return of risk aversion, which will likely push the pair lower.
USD: Plenty of market moving news: Treasury auctions, FOMC statements. If Fed is seen as too inclined to extend its stimulus programs, dampens hopes of raising interest rates, or is otherwise seen as too dovish on fighting inflation, that could hurt the dollar. Opposite indications would help the USD, as would remarks that convince markets that inflation is not a threat. If US 10 year Treasury bond sales are weak, the Fed might be forced to buy, which is in essence more stimulus and would thus look dovish in the fight to defend the USD's value and would hurt the USD. The BoE statement today could also potentially influence USD if it implies that UK Debt/GDP ratio is too high, because it might raise questions about stability of not just the GBP but also the USD because the US has also used stimulus and debt aggressively. See below for more in FED AHEAD.
GBP: Could see volatility if today's BoE statement is taken as more hawkish in defending the GBP's value, which would support the GBP. If the BoE statement is taken the opposite way, the GBP could drop further. Also, if it implies that UK Debt/GDP ratio is too high, because it might raise questions about stability of not just the GBP but also the USD because the US has also used stimulus and debt aggressively. See below for more in FED AHEAD.
JPY: The yen was a major beneficiary on Tuesday after stock markets succumbed to profit-taking on their extended rally. "The recovery story has been pushed hard, very hard, and it makes sense to see this momentum unwind a little," said Adam Carr, senior economist at ICAP, Sydney. "Particularly when there are plenty of equity analysts running around arguing strong moves to date don't reflect fundamentals." Traders also said the dollar's jump to an eight-week high near 98 yen late last week following better-than-expected U.S. employment data was over done, and investors were now cutting dollar long positions versus the yen.
Domestic CGPI is expected to be unchanged m/m while the y/y figure is expected to drop even further. Industrial production, capacity utilization and the BoJ monthly reports are all due as well. The yen continued to benefit from the pullback in risk sentiment as USDJPY and the yen crosses headed lower during the session. We still look for USDJPY around 95 within the coming weeks as it appears to remain a safe haven currency for now.
CAD: Housing starts disappointed at 132.1k and the June reading was revised down to 137.8k. The trade balance and the new housing price index are due, with the trade balance expected to be negative again as Canadian exports remain weak. A drop in crude oil and the pullback in risk seeking have helped keep USDCAD supported above 1.10. The greater likelihood going forward appears for the USD to gain a bit more on risk aversion.
AUD, NZD: Down on risk aversion ahead of FOMC statement. RBA Governor Glen Stevens delivers his semi-annual testimony to parliament on Friday, but it is unlikely that he would have changed his tone so soon after last week's RBA rate decision and quarterly Statement. The Baltic Dry Index fell to an over a 2-month low last week. It was its worst week since Oct'08 (falling 17%) due to slowing Chinese demand for shipments of coal and iron ore slowed. The RBA's monetary policy report sounded a cautiously optimistic note, observing that the global economy is stabilizing and "extreme risk aversion seen earlier in the year has retreated somewhat". The bank judged that the domestic economy has shown "considerable resilience", helped by a strong recovery in China that has boosted demand for Australian exports. The statement forecasts that the domestic GDP growth will average 0.5% over 2009. On the subject of interest rates, stronger-than-expected economic data and a general improvement in sentiment both domestically and overseas, have "reduced the likelihood" that further cuts to the policy rate will be needed.
Crude: Dropping Tuesday, steady Wednesday around $70 ahead of FOMC meeting. Technically overbought, vulnerable to pullback, with much of the good news already priced in, overwhelming percentage of futures long on crude, and demand remains weak. Crude also vulnerable to stock pullback. Crude prices could also suffer if USD continues to strengthen, either on good US economic news or as safety haven during stock pullback. On its part, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries anticipated that the slow recovery in global consumption and rival oil supplies would shrink demand for its crude next year. Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its closely watched oil monthly report later on Wednesday.
Gold: Short Term: dropping on profit taking, concerns ahead of FOMC statement that it might be more hawkish, hinting at coming exit from QE, which would lessen chances of inflation OR that it could be so gloomy that inflation seems unlikely in near term. However, if Fed is less optimistic and more pro-stimulus than expected, that would pressure the USD, and support gold.
Longer Term is more positive, global gold price hedging by producers is nearing a multi-year low, suggesting that miners DO NOT want to be bound by current prices and want more exposure to anticipated higher spot prices.
Other Market Headlines
The FOMC and the Markets
In sum, the Fed is unlikely to be worried about inflation (too much unemployment, banking troubles for a quick recovery), and is likely to express more concern about job recovery, thus while rates are likely to be left unchanged (since little has changed since last statement in July) tone of the statement is more likely to remain "dovish" (not fighting inflation) and thus pressure USD downward.
Given the timing of Wednesday's 10 year Treasury bond auction results at 1700 GMT and the FOMC at 1815 GMT, it should not surprise if we see weaker statistics for the 10y auction as some investors are concerned that the FOMC could unexpectedly decide to increase the size of the Treasury purchases, similar to the BoE's surprise decision last week. A surprise on the asset purchase front or a more dovish than expected Fed could temper expectations of a shift in sentiment, following last week's nonfarm payrolls release, and could weigh on the dollar. But while we wait to see if recent events play out differently than those in the early-June episode, the dollar should continue to benefit as a safe haven amid any pullbacks in risk sentiment. And higher yields, depending on the FOMC statement, could once again prove to be dollar-supportive.
Why Markets May Be Ready to Pull Back: Links to articles worth seeing
• Preview from Europe: Non-Farm Payrolls Add to Bullish Tone. Very good graphs on Bob Farrell's Rule # 8: bear markets have 3 stages 1. Sharp downturn 2. Reflexive rebound 3. Drawn our fundamental downtrend & shows we're in reflexive rebound stage, prelude to a further downturn in stocks and other risk assets.
• Preview from Europe: Stocks Consolidate at Lofty Levels
Key points include:
• A record 13.9% of companies beat their EPS estimates, prior record was 7.9% in Q1 of 2004. Does this suggest the game of lowball estimates have become far more exaggerated?
• Year over year profit growth still at -29.5%. Yes, that's better than the -31.7% consensus estimate before Q1, but at the start of the year estimated growth rate for Q2 was -11.3%, So actually, earnings are coming in below expected by more than 18 percentage points on this basis, but believe me, there is nary a newspaper or a bubblevision TV program that is going to make mention of that particular statistic.
• What about guidance? Again, not a broadly reported statistic but there have been 39 negative EPS pre-announcements versus 15 positive pre-announcements thus far for 3Q. That yields a negative/positive ratio of 2.6x, which is actually well above the 1.8x at this same juncture during the Q1 reporting season three months ago and the long-run average of 2.1x.
• What about valuations? The S&P 500 is trading at 16.5x calendar year 2009 earnings estimates; 14.7x four-quarter forward estimates; a 13.2x calendar year estimates. These are forward estimates, which are merely analyst projections, and they are based on operating, not reported earnings. And the best, the very best, multiple that can be drummed up is 13.2x. That doesn’t exactly sound like bargain prices from where we sit, especially when dividends are being slashed and the corporate bond market is still offering up coupons of over 7%.
• Preview from Europe: Non-Farm Payrolls Add to Bullish Tone
Very good graphs on Bob Farrell's Rule # 8: Bear markets have 3 stages 1. sharp downturn 2. reflexive rebound 3. drawn our fundamental downtrend & suggests we're currently in reflexive rebound stage, prelude to a further downturn in stocks and other risk assets.
Traders should carefully monitor BoE and Fed Statements. Most markets are arguably overbought and thus may be vulnerable to pullback. Either of these statements have the potential to move markets—in either direction.
Trading Opportunity: With markets at highs, USD and JPY still deeply shorted, the odds favor a pullback. While traders should not attempt to fight the tape, they should be ready with planned trades (instrument, entry and exit points, including stop loss levels) to play the short side. However, today's statements from the BoE and Fed have the potential to move markets up if they present enough optimism.
WED AUG 12
2:00am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 3.7% 9.3%
2:30am AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
6:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
*9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 25.5K 23.8K
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.3% 2.3%
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 7.7% 7.6%
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.5%
*10:30am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
*10:30am GBP BOE Inflation Report
*1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.6B -1.4B
*1:30pm USD Trade Balance -28.4B -26.0B
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M
*7:15pm USD FOMC Statement
*7:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
THURS AUG 13
Aug 13 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.2%
*7:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q -0.3% -3.8%
7:45am EUR French Prelim GDP q/q -0.5% -1.2%
8:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%
9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
10:00am EUR Flash GDP q/q -0.5% -2.5%
*1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.3%
*1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.6%
*1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 540K 550K
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m -0.2% 3.2%
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m -0.9% -1.0%
*11:45pm NZD Retail Sales m/m -0.3% 0.8%
FRI AUG 14
*Aug 14 12:30am AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% -0.1%
7:45am EUR French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q -0.9% -1.2%
10:00am EUR CPI y/y -0.6% -0.6%
10:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.4% 1.4%
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.2% -6.0%
*1:30pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.0% 0.7%
FX Weekly Calendar Summary by Day
After a rollercoaster week, forex trading expects another interesting week: rate decisions in the US and Japan, CPI figures around the world and much more. Let’s see what’s on the menu this week.
Last week began with a collapse of the dollar. Later on, it began recovering, and then made a comeback on Friday’s surprising Non-Farm Payrolls. Will the greenback stabilize this week? Or are we expected for another volatile week? Here are the major events that will impact currency trading this week:
Tuesday, August 11th: In Japan, there’s a fresh rate decision. Overnight Call Rate isn’t expected to move from rock bottom, 0.1%. Traders will check out the Monetary Policy Statement and later the BOJ Press Conference for hints on recovery. Yen carry trades will shake.
British Trade Balance is expected to show a stable deficit, remaining around 6.3 billion.
In Canada, Housing Starts are predicted to stay stable. This is a very important figure for the loonie. In the US, quarterly Prelim Non-farm Productivity and Prelim Unit Labor Costs are the first American figures for this week.
Wednesday, August 12th: In Australia, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment. In addition, quarterly Wage Price Index is also important for the Aussie.
Britain’s first and most important employment indicator, Claimant Count Change, is predicted to stand at 25.5K. Later in Britain, the BoE releases the monthly BOE Inflation Report. It’ll be accompanied by a speech from BoE governor, Mervyn King. The Pound will definitely go wild…
In North America, American and Canadian Trade Balance figures are published at the same time. USD/CAD is sensitive to this double-feature event.
Click here for more reports like this from AVAFX
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Click Here To Register for the Free Swing Trading Webinar Today August 11th, 12PM Eastern Time
A short time ago we released the video you can watch. It really was a wake-up call for many, plus a scenario that most traders (in particular forex) could relate to. There’s simply too much effort being put forth by most people who are trying to trade. We have a question for you. Would you prefer to do it in 10 minutes a night instead? And, not just forex traders, this applies to futures trading and stock/options trading. It simply is not necessary to put hours on end into trading — there’s certainly reasons to daytrade — and a place in many peoples trading plan but most don’t realize you can be an active trader without all the time investment. If you want to learn how you can trade Forex, Futures and Stock/Options in 10 minutes a day – and then have the other 23 hours and 50 minutes to go about your life then you definitely must make time to attend our Free Live Webinar. Tuesday, August 11th @ 12:00pm EST (New York Time)/9:00am PST/4:00pm GMT.
We have never offered the Ultimate Swing Trader “Ultimate Pack” — it’s a first for us, and the “UST” has only been available 3 times since it’s release. It sells out everytime. You have a unique opportunity to learn about this 10 minute a day strategy, get a ton of trading advice and have an opportunity if you find this is right for you that may not be repeated.
Click here to register, and be sure you attend:
There’s a video that many of you will be able to relate to. It discusses forex but futures stock traders this is for you as well, and thankfully you can finally break the cycle of losing trades.
Monday, August 10, 2009
The Market Week Ahead
First, the market last week. The Dow gained more than 125 points while the S&P tacked on 15 points late Friday on news that the pace of U.S. job losses slowed more than forecast in July and the unemployment rate dropped for the first time in more than a year. One month does not make a trend so be careful on being overly optimistic just yet.
The data reports this week for equity investor traders, and especially forex traders. Monday: Australia Investment Lending. Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Japan Economic Survey & Outlook, Japan Bankruptcies, and Machine Tool Orders. Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence. New Zealand Manufacturing, House Sales, and Credit Card Spending. UK House Prices and Retail Sales. Tuesday: Australia Business Confidence. Japan Consumer Confidence. UK Visible Trade Balance. Canada Housing Starts. Wednesday: Australia Wage Costs. Bank of Japan Monthly Report. UK Jobless Claims and Unemployment. Euro-Zone Industrial Production. Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. Canada International Trade, and Housing Prices. US Trade Balance, and Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision. Thursday: Australia Housing Affordability and Inflation Expectations. Germany & France Gross Domestic Product. Swiss Producer & Import Prices. European Central Bank Monthly. Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product. US Retail Sales. New Zealand Retail Sales. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Friday: USA and Euro-Zone Consumers Prices. US Industrial Production and Michigan Confidence Survey.
Our Stock Pick This Week
It’s a buy long position on an electronic and computer display manufacturer based in Taiwan currently valued at about $9 billion. One asset manager from Stamford Connecticut says this company is an “opportunity of a generation”. I’m not so sure about that but I am looking for this company’s stock price this year to possibly go to 15 in the next 3 months. If the market permits, this would be about a 10:1 Reward Risk Ratio based on my investment trade plan below. Exponential returns like this can make you very wealthy over time. In case the market or the stock does not permit, take your stop-loss to reposition in the stock later on or go find another low-risk high-reward opportunity. There’s always another opportunity coming around the corner in the financial markets. No need to chase opportunities but rather let them come to you, especially in times like this.
Buy Long AU Optronics Ticker AUO
Buy Entry: 10.32 to 10.68
Stop-Loss: 10.22 or Lower
Take Profit Areas: 12.18 to 12.54, 13.02 to 13.54, 14.78 to 15.21, 17.06 to 17.56
AU Optronics Company Profile
AU Optronics Corp. engages in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, and marketing of thin film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) panels and other flat panel displays. The company's TFT-LCD panels are used in computer products, such as notebook computers and desktop monitors; consumer electronics products comprising mobile phones, digital photo frames, digital still cameras, portable navigation display, portable digital versatile disk players, digital camcorders, automobile display, and amusement and printer displays; and LCD televisions and industrial displays. It sells its panels principally to original equipment manufacturing service providers in Taiwan, the People’s Republic of China, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Acer Display Technology, Inc. and changed its name to AU Optronics Corp. in May 2001. AU Optronics Corp. was founded in 1996 and is based in Hsinchu, Taiwan.
Click here to review and trial the Trading Software we used in determining our short position on AUO.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Forex Trade Management Software that is completely universal. It works with any trading strategy. It literally doesn't matter if you trade one of their systems, your broker's, or even your own personal method.
Click here to To get your Free Copy of this Forex Trade Management Software.
Successful forex position management software. This incredibly powerful software that will advance your trading plan in leaps and bounds and make your life much easier deal with.
So what does this software do exactly? Specifically, you'll be able to:
Track trade statistics and performance with roll-up summary.
Find out your exact position size for 1x, 2x, and 3x.
Determine the different pip values per currency (for example pip value when trading the EURUSD is different than when trading the EURJPY)
Even better, this software works regardless of what trading system you use. Whatever trading system you use be it your Broker's strategy, or your own method, this software is going to work across the board.
Just click here to retreive your Free copy of the Trade Management Software.
Not only will you have instant access to the software but you'll also receive a training video on how best to utilize this awesome resource to your profitable advantage.
Good day, good investing and trading!
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
There's a lot of cliches about investing and trading the financial markets. Some are true, some are not depending upon market conditions. One we believe is true is "invest and trade where the strength is". It's not about buying low and selling high, its about being where the strength is. Below is such a system that provides that low-risk high-reward all professional investors and traders seek.
Professional Options Trader Christopher Rowe became famous in trading circles when he went almost a full year with a perfect record on his options trades. Very unheard to say the least.
Chris's success and ambition quickly led him to become Chief Investment Officer of his own options trading service. In just his first few years, he averaged an 80% overall success rate.
Because of his success, Chris has a reputation for being an "options guy."
But that reputation is very misleading: I don't care if you're the world's foremost authority on options trading, if you don't know how to pick the right stocks, and at the right times, trading options around them won't make you a dime.
That's where Chris Rowe's real genius lies. It's the secret to his success as an options trader. Chris has a proven system, one that he's developed over many years of mistakes and triumphs that tells him when the odds are so heavily in his favor that he's got the best chance of earning big profits.
Chris put his entire system for picking stocks down on paper and on video, a project that took him the better part of two years to complete. He designed his system into a course that you can easily complete at home. He called it Chris Rowe's Internal Strength System (CRISS).
He released the course with great success to his own subscribers, it sold out, and it hasn't been on the market since. Rarely has someone outside of his circle of subscribers had the opportunity to get a copy of CRISS until now.
Chris has agreed to allow us to offer a limited number of his courses to our Invest2Success readers. On top of that, he's agreed to cut the price dramatically for this limited release.
So now you know the background. Here are the specifics:
When Chris made his course available to his circle of readers and subscribers, he put a limit of 1,000 copies on the market, and they sold out within days. No matter how much we twisted his arm, he's holding firm, and won't consider allowing more than 500 new students on board.
Having spent a lot of time with the course ourselves, we understand why. Most guys in this business are happy just to sell you their product, and then let you fend for yourself. But that's not Chris Rowe.
Everyone who buys his Internal Strength System, on top of the 500+ page book, and the 10 hours of video, gets constant updates on the member's only website. A series of online presentations to make sure nothing that he teaches goes over anybody's head, and near constant personalized support. And it isn't some marketing flunky doing all this, it's Chris himself.
He's not happy unless everyone who takes his course, from the greenest newbie investor to the professional traders, masters his system and is able to generate profits on their trades.
There's no way he could make good on this commitment if too many new students came on board too quickly. Hence, the 500 person limit for this limited release.
Click here for a chance on getting a copy.
The limited release to Invest2Success readers has not yet begun. It won't be available to you until Thursday, August 20th.
But there is a way to give yourself the best possible chance of being one of the 500 lucky investors who land a copy for themselves.
Chris has created a VIP waiting list that you can join today to make sure you're at the front of the line on the 20th of August. In fact, when the invitation e-mail is sent, only people on this list will receive it.
Important Note: Joining the waiting list will guarantee that you receive the invitation, but it won't guarantee you a copy of the course. Even if 20,000 people join the waiting list, we're still only allowed to sell 500 discounted copies.
An Extra Gift
Without giving away too many details, we asked Chris if he could provide us with an overview of the Internal Strength System that I could share with Invest2Success readers. He actually gave us his personal introduction to the course, straight off the first DVD.
When you sign up for the waiting list, you will get access to that video right away. Not only will you see exactly how robust and in-depth his system is, but you'll also get to "meet" Chris face to face.
So, to ensure you get an invitation on Thursday, August 20th, and for instant access to Chris Rowe's Internal Strength System introduction.
Click Here to join the CRISS VIP waiting list now, and get instant access to the free video preview.