Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Disciplined Trading

Disciplined Trader
What do you trade? Stocks, Forex, Commodities, Options?

Ever had a blow out investment or trade? Or better question, when was your last blow out investment or trade?

You know, the one big losing trade that strips you of all the profit you built up for the day or week, or month.

Click here for a 3-Minute Audio Could Help You Avoid That Devastating "Blowout Trade" Again

Listen to this extremely revealing audio. Don't wait, grab it now.

We polled over a thousand active traders.

There were stock traders, forex traders, commodity, and options traders in the group, and we asked them:

"If You Had 10 Minutes of the Undivided Attention of Tisha Hallett, Creative Director of The Disciplined Trader Intensive Program, What Single PRESSING QUESTION Would You Ask Her About The Mental/Emotional Issues of Trading?"

The "PRESSING QUESTIONS" stood out, meaning they were the most common responses.

* "I did it again! I had all this profit and just gave it all back and MORE in one UN-disciplined trade. How do I stop these debilitating blowout trades?"

* "I'm hesitating to Pull The Trigger when my trading plan signals me to. How can I be more consistent in following my plan?"

* "I'm having trouble taking my losses. Can you tell me how to stop this destructive practice?"

Click here to get the answers now.

Tisha Hallett was asked to keep her responses to 3 minutes, so these responses are straight-forward and her suggestions will hit you right between the eyes.

Good day and good trading!

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Fibonacci Trading Techniques

Fibonacci Trading
Learn How Fibonacci Techniques Can Identify Market Turns

The word Fibonacci (pronounced fib-oh-notch-ee) can draw either blank stares or an enthusiastic response. There's hardly any in-between ground. But for those who ask how an esoteric mathematical relationship can apply to price charts and trading, here's a quick lesson. Everyone who uses Elliott wave analysis will sooner or later want to try using Fibo techniques, and Elliott Wave International's Jeff Kennedy has written about five of them in a Trader's Classroom column. For an example of why people are so fascinated by Fibonacci, read part of Kennedy's article here:

How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading

Have you ever given an expensive toy to a small child and watched while the child had less fun playing with the toy than with the box that it came in? In fact, I can remember some of the boxes I played with as a child that became spaceships, time machines or vehicles to use on dinosaur safaris.

In many ways, Fibonacci math is just like the box kids enjoy playing with imaginatively for hours on end. It's hard to imagine a wrong way to apply Fibonacci ratios or multiples to financial markets, and new ways are being tested every day. Let's look at just some of the ways I apply Fibonacci math in my own analysis.

Fibonacci Retracements

Financial markets demonstrate an uncanny propensity to reverse at certain Fibonacci levels. The most common Fibonacci ratios I use to forecast retracements are .382, .500 and .618. On occasion, I find .236 and .786 useful, but I prefer to stick with the big three. You can imagine how helpful these can be: Knowing where a corrective move is likely to end often identifies high-probability trade setups (Figures 7-1 and 7-2).

Corn Chart

Orange Juice Chart
Kennedy then goes on to explain Fibonacci extensions, circles, fans and time, using 11 charts to show what he means. Whether or not you are a math geek, you can learn a lot from this six-page introduction to Fibonacci math.

Get Your Fibonacci Techniques Right Here. Jeffrey Kennedy has been using and teaching these techniques for years, and he has written a quick description of five Fibonacci techniques in his Trader's Classroom column -- now available to you for free by signing up as a Club EWI member. Read more about the 6-page report here.

Click here for more Fibonacci trading resources.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
The Market Outlook This Week

Good Friday is the big USA unemployment numbers report with the equity market closed. Some are expecting job growth last month. Some of the forecasts are anywhere from 200,000 to 300,000 increase. The market sure seems to have it priced in already. A positive number here could keep the market moving up, and a negative number could be a let down and create selling pressure on stocks next week. Greece and Dubai are still in focus with their debt problems. I wouldn’t be surprised if the US Dollar took a breather correction this week with its big up moves from last week.

Major Global Economic Data Reports This Week

Monday: Germany Consumer Price Index. Japan Retail Trade. UK Credit. Euro-Zone Business Climate. USA Personal Consumption Spending and Income. Japan Industrial Production.

Tuesday: Switzerland Consumption Indicator. UK Current Account. USA Case Shiller Home Prices. USA & UK Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Australia Retail Sales and Credit. Japan Housing Starts. Euro-Zone and German Unemployment. Switzerland Leading Indicator. USA ADP Employment Change. Canada Gross Domestic Product. USA Factory Orders. Australia Manufacturing Index. Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and Tankan Outlook.

Thursday: Australia Trade Balance. German Retail Sales. Switzerland Purchasing Managers Index. UK Purchasing Managers Index. USA Initial Jobless Claims. USA ISM Manufacturing.

Friday: USA Non-Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate.

My Stock Pick This Week

Is a buy on Honda Motors. With the all problems facing the auto makers, forecasts for the auto industry remain bright long term and could possibly be one of the fastest growing industries in the coming years ahead. Some forecasts are looking for annual growth as much as of 17% for motor vehicles for the next five years. With Toyota’s problems, other auto makers may be able to capitalize on their misfortune and possibly take more market share from them. Honda is in a good position to possibly do just that and increase their earning per share in the process.

Buy Long Honda Motor Company – Ticker HMC

Buy Entry: 35.48

Stop-Loss: 34.97

Take Profit Areas: 36.94 to 38.61, 40.65 to 42.71

Honda Motors Company Profile

Honda Motor Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and manufactures various motor products, ranging from small general-purpose engines and scooters to specialty sports cars. The company operates in four segments: Motorcycle, Automobile, Financial Services, and Power Product and Other. The Motorcycle Segment engages in the production of motorcycles that consist of sports (trial and moto-cross racing), business, and commuter models, as well as all-terrain vehicles, personal watercraft, and multi utility vehicles. It produces motorcycles, ranging from the 50cc class to the 1800cc class in cylinder displacement. The Automobile segment engages in the production of passenger cars under Legend, Accord, Inspire, Civic, Insight, City, Acura RL, Acura TL, Acura TSX, and Acura CSX brands; minivans, multi-wagons, and sport utility vehicle under Elysion, Odyssey, Step Wagon, Stream, FREED, Edix/FR-V, Airwave, Fit/Jazz, Partner Pilot, Ridgeline, CR-V, Element, Crossroad, S2000, Acura MDX, and Acura RDX brands; and mini cars under Life, Zest, Vamos, and Acty brands. The Financial Services Segment offers various financial services that include retail lending and leasing to customers, as well as other financial services, such as wholesale financing to dealers. The Power Product and Other Segment engages in manufacturing various power products, including solar cell batteries, power tillers, portable generators, general-purpose engines, grass cutters, outboard marine engines, water pumps, snow throwers, power carriers, power sprayers, lawn mowers, and lawn tractors (riding lawn mowers). Honda Motor Co., Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical criteria, and trade pattern setups.

Click the Honda Motors Stock Chart for a larger view.

Honda Motors Stock Chart

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Dangerous Gold & Silver Myths

Gold Silver Bullion
Click Here For A New Gold and Silver eBook

Right now, the gold BULL-ion bandwagon is more crowded than a New York subway train during rush hour. But before you squeeze your way into the crowd of passengers, you should know one thing: Those steering the course are using outdated maps based on ill-conceived notions and illusory hopes.

Where can you get better information about gold and silver? Take a look at the latest Free resource from Club EWI, the Gold and Silver eBook. This riveting, 40-page eBook pools the recent and archived writings on the precious metals by EWI president Bob Prechter himself. The result is a comprehensive collection that spans the last four decades of gold and silver history to expose the most dangerous market myths.

Off the top is this familiar bit of "wisdom" from the school of Alan Greenspan:

It is impossible to foresee the end of major trends in precious metals

BEFORE they occur. Hindsight is foresight.

NOT SO, says Prechter. Since gold and silver established their all-time record peaks in 1979-80, he has stayed one step ahead of the metals' history-making turns. Here, Chapters 2 and 3 of the Gold & Silver eBook offer up the following excerpts from Bob's earliest writings:


* November 18, 1979, Elliott Wave Theorist (EWT): With silver prices hovering near $20/ounce, Bob wrote: “If my wave count is valid, silver can be expected to drop back down to between $4 and $6, $3.20-$3.49 some time in the next decade.”

What actually happened: From there, silver prices embarked on a 13-year bear market that saw prices plunge into the $3.50-per-ounce area.

* March 26, 1993, EWT: “Silver is approaching a major bottom" of its decades-plus long downtrend.

What actually happened: Silver found its low in 1993.


* December 9, 1979, EWT: "After 13 years of rise, Elliott counts now suggest an important top is near in gold. The downside target is at least $282.50."

What actually happened: While the price projection for gold's peak was far off the mark (the Theorist cited the upper $480/ounce range), the time target of early 1980 was met with accuracy. From its 1980 peak, gold prices plummeted nearly 70% before hitting bottom in 2001.

* At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, 1995: “One attractive termination date for the gold bottom is New Year’s Day of 2001 (plus/minus a month). That way, it will have lasted a ... a lean 21 years from the 1980 peak."

What actually happened: Gold registered its low at $255 on February 20, 2001.

Now that we can see that it is possible to benefit from foresight about the end of major trends in precious metals, what about these other popular notions --

* Gold always goes up in recession and depressions.

* Gold always performs better than stocks in economic downturns.

* Gold and Silver are just beginning (as in the year 2010) their biggest bull market runs ever.

Click here for real gold and silver insight you can survive and thrive on.

Click here for more gold investing trading resources.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

The Next Big China Investment Trend

Wen Jiabao

Although Washington has been complaining mightily about China stealing American jobs, the evidence is quite compelling that the Chinese bear little blame. While U.S. firms struggle to find capital, foreign investment into China is recovering at a healthy rate.

China attracted $14.02 billion of foreign direct investment in the first two months of this year, up 4.9% from a year ago. Although China did experience a slump in foreign direct investment (FDI) during the height of the global financial crisis, that trend has definitely been put into reverse.

As Beijing often points out, many exporting jobs in China are created by foreign firms seeking to take advantage of China’s inexpensive labor, skill, and organization. There are other countries poorer than China but cheap labor alone doesn’t make for a worthwhile investment target.

Even more important than FDI is the investment flow coming from China to the rest of the world. This is a growing and noteworthy trend.

Beijing has become increasingly eager to encourage Chinese companies to expand abroad with new acquisitions. With prices of copper and iron ore rising, it has become a national priority to secure supplies of raw materials such as oil and natural gas, which are vital to the economy's growth. China has always been interested in picking up advanced technologies but has been frustrated by many countries which are afraid of losing intellectual capital and have put restrictions on such purchases.

Economic considerations driven by the global financial crisis may hold greater sway in the future. Outward investments by Chinese nonfinancial sectors totaled $4.66 billion during the January to February period, more than the total during the entire first quarter of last year.

The Wall Street Journal estimates that China is targeting outward investment in nonfinancial sectors of $46 billion this year, an increase of 6.2%. Outbound investment rose to $43.3 billion last year. China's investment in overseas markets grew by 6.5 percent from the year before despite the global financial implosion during 2009. Once again, China is showing itself to be a resilient economic power, even in times of huge stress.

With marathon negotiations still continuing over iron ore prices, Beijing is complaining that foreign mining companies are looking for a 100% price increase. Developments like this mean that investors can expect China to go shopping for even more foreign resource companies in order to ensure supplies at a price Beijing can control.

Discover The Bull Markets You're Missing Click here to discover the bull markets your missing.

Click here for more China stock market investing trading resources.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Trading with Trailing Stops Webinar March 23

Trailing Stops
Free Trailing a Stop Webinar

Why & How A Step-By-Step Guide Tuesday, March 23, 2010 6:00 PM - 7:00 PM EDT

To Register Click The "Learning Center" Then "Trading Webinars" Link

Are you trailing stops?

Don't know how? Don't know why? Then you're losing out on some potentially huge moves!

Trailing a stop can be a huge weapon in your investing arsenal. It can help you grab some of the really BIG moves you might have otherwise completely *missed* by just trading a fixed target.

Don't want to make the decision between the two techniques?

You don't have to. The beauty of trailing is that you DON'T have to pick one or the other. Just trade a combination of fixed targets & trailing stops and you'll create a veritable powerhouse capturing both small -and- large moves!

But trailing is a process - not just anyone can do it. And in this free educational webinar, we're going to be taking you through exactly how to trail a stop, how to integrate it with your fixed target tactics and how to make it 'work' smoothly with your current strategy.

Like all of our educational webinars, there is NO sales pitch. Nothing to be bought, nothing to be sold - and you can use this information on ANY system, strategy or method. Use ours, use a competitor's - either way, trailing stops can be a powerful technique when used the right way (and we'll show you how).

And even if you can't attend the webinar live, make sure you register anyway. We'll send out a recording to everyone registered so you don't miss a beat.

You can't miss out - this is educational info designed to up your winning edge and hopefully take you to that next level in your trading.

Click here to reserve your free webinar seat right now (it's free)

Monday, March 22, 2010

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
The Market Outlook This Week

The Obama Healthcare bill has passed in congress now. Look for a possible sell-off in healthcare stocks until more is known about the winners and losers of this major event. I wonder now how this new bill affects USA employers and the unemployment rate moving forward. Now that the healthcare fight is over, I’m betting the voters will now be more interested in what financial reforms are on the way to support them and the economy from getting worse than what it is, and what a mess of agendas from different political groups that is.

Is someone going to bail out Greece or not? While the powers that be try to figure that out, the Euro looks to stay under pressure this week at least and maybe longer. The UK pound looks to be in even worse shape. I wouldn’t be surprised to see possibly 1.40 in the GBPUSD this year now.

The broad market is overbought and could continue higher but I would be paying attention for a possible reversal anytime at least for the short term. The risk to the downside far outweighs the reward to the upside right now in my opinion.

Major Global Economic Data Reports This Week

Monday: Switzerland Money Supply. Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence. Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes.

Tuesday: UK Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index. USA Consumer Confidence. New Zealand Current Account Balance and Deficit.

Wednesday: New Zealand Consumer Confidence. Japan Merchandise Trade Balance. Euro-Zone and Germany Purchasing Managers Index. Germany IFO Current Assessment. USA Durable Goods. New Zealand Gross Domestic Product. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Thursday: German Consumer Confidence. UK Retails Sales. New Zealand Trade Balance. Australia Leading Index. Japan Consumer Price Index.

Friday: USA Gross Domestic Product and Personal Consumption.

My Stock Pick This Week

Is a sell short on BHP Billiton. Long term we could possibly see a price of 40 or so on BHP. China is now and has been since 2006 slowly putting the brakes on their super high growth. With the USA and Europe in big financial trouble and with their unemployment rates high and very possibly heading much higher, the gross domestic product around the world can easily slow down even more. I do see Asia fairing the best compared to the rest for the world currently, but if the other parts of the world economies continue to suffer they could possibly slow down the economies in Asia too. But with China’s 1.3 billion people, and India’s 800 million people, along with the other smaller countries of Southeast Asia, it’s easy to see the future continued growth rate potential of the Asia Pacific Region. I see a topping out right now the broad stock market, and a turnaround to the downtrend in equities, and also all forms of commodities except food for at least for a little while before they continue their long term uptrends later on. The bottom line is that current growth rates may not sustain current prices and valuations in everything from stocks to real estate to metals to wage prices and on and on. Inflation is not the problem right now, deflation is. Deflation is coming first in my opinion before inflation or even hyper-inflation hits. With the markets as toppy as they are with last years bounce back from post crash levels, this dead cat bounce looks very close to exactly what happened during the early 1930’s after the 29’ crash. History repeats itself time and time again. Watch closely if it’s true this time for your financial sake.

Sell Short BHP Billiton

Sell Entry: 79.74 to 77.22

Stop-Loss: 80.84

Take Profit Areas: 73.72 to 70.22, 67.48 to 65.85, 64.34 to 62.79, 56.78 to 55.41, 41.37 to 40.38

BHP Company Profile

BHP Billiton Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a diversified natural resources company in Australia, the Americas, and southern Africa. The company explores for and produces crude petroleum oil and liquefied natural gas; mines bauxite, refines bauxite into alumina, and smelts alumina into aluminum metal; mines various base metals, including copper, silver, lead, zinc, and uranium; explores and produces diamonds, titanium minerals, and potash; supplies nickel to the stainless steel industry; and explores iron, manganese, metallurgical coal, and thermal or steaming coal. BHP Billiton Limited was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

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BHP Billiton Stock Chart

Friday, March 19, 2010

The Asian Rally: Who Saw It Coming?

Asia Bull Markets
The Asian Rally: Who Saw It Coming?

Bloomberg TV's Bernard Lo recently interviewed Mark Galasiewski, Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor, about his outlook for Asian stocks. Lo began the interview with this comment:

"Last year [EWI] recommended going long just before the markets started recovering, so if you listened, you made money."

Not all of our forecasts hit the nail on the head, but this one certainly did, just as Lo pointed out. Major Asian markets have experienced a robust rally since last year's March low. Here is an excerpt from the February 2010 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast that explains Galasiewski's prediction and shows you how neatly it unfolded.

Is the rally in Asia over?

In Global Market Perspective, the same analysis that predicted the Asian rally gives you coverage of all major Asian markets like the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index so you can be one step ahead of the trend.

Click here to learn more:

Excerpted from the Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast published January 29, 2010

MSCI Asia Pacific Index
We turned bullish on Asian-Pacific markets in March 2009. It was a forecast that few could even imagine at the time. In early 2009, the Asia-Pacific region was still trying to make sense of a host of negative events in late 2008:

* Singapore’s 2008 Q4 GDP had fallen 16% year over year, the worst decline in the nation’s history.

* Taiwan’s monthly exports in December had collapsed 42% year over year, their steepest fall on record.

* The number of job advertisements in major Australian newspapers had plunged at its fastest rate ever.

* Business and consumer confidence in Japan was at all-time lows.

* India was tending its wounds after a team of Islamic terrorists went on a killing spree in downtown Mumbai.

But to followers of the Wave Principle, those events made complete sense. We knew that the negative headlines were a product of the collapsing mood of the period, and we even showed how similar events in the past had in fact been bullish signals from a contrarian perspective. In the March 2009 issue, we showed how pattern, price, time and sentiment considerations in the region’s major indexes were pointing to the end of the declines from their 2007 or 2008 highs and alerted subscribers that a “massive rally could ensue in the near future.”

We formally turned bullish on the region in a special Interim Report on the SENSEX, dated March 23, 2009, in which we said that India’s stock market in particular “may offer investors a rewarding long-term opportunity.”

MSCI Asia Pacific Index
In the April 2009 issue, we then showed how pattern, price, momentum and sentiment conditions in the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index had confirmed our bullish view for the major regional indexes. As prices broke out from the trend channel that had contained the index’s decline, we targeted the 38% retracement of the decline near 100 on log scale as a “likely minimum target” for the advance with other possible targets near 110 and 122 (the 50% and 62.8% retracements). As the index moved higher and eventually exceeded those levels, we correctly identified that higher prices lay ahead.

What's next for the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index and other major Asian markets? The same analysis that predicted the Asian rally tells you which Asian markets are your best bets, and which to avoid in the March issue of The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast. You can also get comprehensive analysis and forecasts for all major global markets, including Asia.

Click here to learn more:

Click here for China stock market investing trading resources.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Peak Performance Investing Trading

Van Tharp Institute - International Institue Trading Mastery
Trading Education

Click here for Dr Van Tharp's 2010 Trading Workshop Schedule

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Games: Van Tharp believes that understanding games is one of the real keys to psychological breakthroughs in trading and wealth.

How to become aware of your games:

Domain, Rules, Level of Awareness, Trading and Wealth Games we play.

Learn your winning strategy.

This strategy has been the basis for all of your past success, but it will limit you as a trader/investor. In fact, the more powerful it is (i.e., the more success you’ve achieved with it), the more it limits you now. Learn how and take steps to overcome those limitations.

Go through a dramatic Personal Reinvention. In Peak Performance 202, you’ll learn how to make a declaration for a trading vision that might seem impossible now. Yet, once you’ve gone through the workshop, you’ll learn how it is possible and how you can take the first steps toward a new you and success that’s beyond your current scope. This workshop is that powerful.

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2) You’ll learn about all the various games that you play. These are mostly unconscious games. And when you play a game unconsciously, you have no chance of winning it. Instead, the winners will be those who made up the rules in the first place. The whole area of games is a major breakthrough in the psychology of personal success and you’ll be amazed at what you’ll discover and what you can do with that knowledge.

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Click here for more information on Dr Van Tharp Trading Education Courses and Workshops

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Movies Money and the Markets

Wall Street Money Never Sleeps
Popular Culture and the Stock Market

The following article is adapted from a special report on "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" published by Robert Prechter, founder and CEO of the technical analysis and research firm Elliott Wave International. Although originally published in 1985, "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" is so timeless and relevant that USA Today covered its insights in a recent Nov. 2009 article. For the rest of this revealing 50-page report, download it for free here.

This year's Academy Awards gave us movies about war (The Hurt Locker), football (The Blind Side), country music (Crazy Heart) and going native (Avatar), but nowhere did we see a horror movie nominated. In fact, it looks like Sweeney Todd, The Demon Barber of Fleet Street was the most recent to be nominated in 2008, for art direction (which it won), costume design and best actor, although the last one to win major awards for Best Picture, Director, Actor and Actress was The Silence of the Lambs in 1991.

Whether horror films win Academy Awards or not, they tell an interesting story about mass psychology. Research here at Elliott Wave International shows that horror films proliferate during bear markets, whereas upbeat, sweet-natured Disney movies show up during bull markets. Since the Dow has been in a bear-market rally for a year, now is not the time for horror films to dominate the movie theaters. But their time will come again.

In the meantime, to catch up on why all kinds of pop culture -- including fashion, art, movies and music -- can help to explain the markets, take a few minutes to read a piece called Popular Culture and the Stock Market, which Bob Prechter wrote in 1985. Here's an excerpt about horror movies as a sample.

From Popular Culture and the Stock Market by Bob Prechter

While musicals, adventures, and comedies weave into the pattern, one particularly clear example of correlation with the stock market is provided by horror movies. Horror movies descended upon the American scene in 1930-1933, the years the Dow Jones Industrials collapsed. Five classic horror films were all produced in less than three short years. Frankenstein and Dracula premiered in 1931, in the middle of the great bear market. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde played in 1932, the bear market bottom year and the only year that a horror film actor was ever granted an Oscar. The Mummy and King Kong hit the screen in 1933, on the double bottom. These are the classic horror films of all time, along with the new breed in the 1970s, and they all sold big. The message appeared to be that people had an inhuman, horrible side to them. Just to prove the vision correct, Hitler was placed in power in 1933 (an expression of the darkest public mood in decades) and fulfilled it. For thirteen years, lasting only slightly past the stock market bottom of 1942, films continued to feature Frankenstein monsters, vampires, werewolves and undead mummies. Ironically, Hollywood tried to introduce a new monster in 1935 during a bull market, but Werewolf of London was a flop. When film makers tried again in 1941, in the depths of a bear market, The Wolf Man was a smash hit.

Shortly after the bull market in stocks resumed in 1942, films abandoned dark, foreboding horror in the most sure-fire way: by laughing at it. When Abbott and Costello met Frankenstein, horror had no power. That decade treated moviegoers to patriotic war films and love themes. The 1950s gave us sci-fi adventures in a celebration of man’s abilities; all the while, the bull market in stocks raged on. The early 1960s introduced exciting James Bond adventures and happy musicals. The milder horror styles of the bull market years and the limited extent of their popularity stand in stark contrast to those of the bear market years.

Then a change hit. Just about the time the stock market was peaking, film makers became introspective, doubting and cynical. How far the change in cinematic mood had carried didn’t become fully clear until 1969-1970, when Night of the Living Dead and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre debuted. Just look at the chart of the Dow [not shown], and you’ll see the crash in mood that inspired those movies. The trend was set for the 1970s, as slice-and-dice horror hit the screen. There also appeared a rash of re-makes of the old Dracula and Frankenstein stories, but as a dominant theme, Frankenstein couldn’t cut it; we weren’t afraid of him any more.

Hollywood had to horrify us to satisfy us, and it did. The bloody slasher-on-the-loose movies were shocking versions of the ’30s’ monster shows, while the equally gory zombie films had a modern twist. In the 1930s, Dracula was a fitting allegory for the perceived fear of the day, that the aristocrat was sucking the blood of the common people. In the 1970s, horror was perpetrated by a group eating people alive, not an individual monster. An army of dead-but-moving flesh-eating zombies devouring every living person in sight was a fitting allegory for the new horror of the day, voracious government and the welfare state, and the pressures that most people felt as a result. The nature of late ’70s’ warfare ultimately reflected the mass-devouring visions, with the destruction of internal populations in Cambodia and China.

Click here to learn what's really behind trends in the stock market, music, fashion, movies and much more.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
Trading Software

Market Outlook This Week

First thing, the US Federal Reserve is having an interest rate decision meeting on Tuesday. The street is expecting no change. The market right now looks like its continuing a little higher for whatever reasons, but I’m still waiting for the turn to the downside, and short selling like a mad man. Have to wait for major support to break, then the test back up, to confirm it’s all sell again. Right now the risk to the downside is much more than the rewards to the upside. So if you’re going long, stop-loss is a super must in case the market reverses on your long positions. Stop-loss is always a must anyway whether you’re a day-trader with big leverage or a long term investor at full margin.

USA Europe Asia Emerging Markets

If and when USA and Europe markets start tanking again, I see the Asia markets holding up the best. So I suggest the following. Direct equity investment in Asia markets, along with ADR stocks ETF’s and funds. Also commodities and or a managed futures account would be smart with and some money in a short mutual fund also. If you like short selling, then you should already know what I’m talking about. I think that the sell time is coming pretty soon for the USA and Europe markets. It could be possibly one to two weeks away. I would not be short selling China though with their $2 Trillion in cash. I would be looking for pullbacks in the hot China India Asia markets to be buying back in. The growth story in Asia is opposite of what it is in USA and Europe right now, and I expect it to stay that way for quite some years.

USA Sector Growth

There are sectors in the USA economy that are growing jobs, so if you want to invest and trade on the buy side in the USA, check leading low debt companies in the following sectors. Health Care, companies providing to the Federal Government, Social Services, Employment Services, Education Services, and Computer Systems Design and Services. My stock pick this week is a buy on a healthcare company. I should be short selling, but it seems maybe is not the time just yet it.

Major Global Economic Reports This Week

Monday: UK House Prices. Japan Consumer Confidence. Euro-Zone Unemployment. USA Empire Index and TIC Inflows.

Tuesday: Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes. France & Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index. USA Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision. USA Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. UK Unemployment Rate. USA Producer Price Index.

Thursday: New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence Index. Switzerland Trade Balance, and Industrial Production. Euro-Zone Current Account. USA Consumer Price Index and Current Account Balance.

Friday: Germany Producer Prices. Canada Consumer Price Index.

My Stock Pick This Week

Is a buy on Express Scripts, and it’s at a 52 week high. To buy long into this very possibly topping out market is crazy, but sane if you’re using stop-loss. The trend is your friend until it reverses, and it takes time for tops to form, if it’s going to. The profit margins to the upside from here are shrinking in the market now, and I recommend investing trading in the highest quality companies for liquidity if you’re going long at this cautious time. The healthcare industry is the most hiring sector in the market right now so there’s some potential share price growth there possibly. If I was short selling this week, I would short sell Owens-Illinois Ticker OI or Watts Water Technologies Ticker WTS

Market Continuing Up or Reversing?

I see the market in a very precarious position right now. Either it’s going to rollover and down to possibly test major supports or we have some continued upside. Near term I’m betting a little more upside, but not for very far and very long. One or two weeks from now, possibly it could reverse. Intermediate term I think the market is down, and long-term deep downside in my opinion. Exclude Asia from that scenario as I see Asia holding up the best if and when USA and Europe tanks. Then again, USA and Europe markets may drag down Asia as evidenced in the past but I’m betting already it’s not the case this time. That’s a dangerous statement to say “its different this time” I know. That’s why using stop-loss is smart money in any market.

Buy Long Express Scripts – Ticker ESRX

Buy Entry: 93.65 to 100.10

Stop-Loss: 91.97

Take Profit Areas: 109 to 110, 122 to 124

Express Scripts Company Profile

Express Scripts, Inc. provides a range of pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services in North America. The company’s PBM services include retail network pharmacy management and retail drug card programs; home delivery pharmacy services; specialty pharmacy services; patient care contact centers; benefit plan design and consultation; drug formulary management; compliance and therapy management programs; information reporting and analysis programs; rebate programs, electronic claims processing, and drug utilization review; consumer health and drug information; bio-pharma services, including reimbursement and customized logistics solutions; medication therapy and safety through pharmacogenomics; and assistance programs for low-income patients. It also engages in the distribution of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies to providers and clinics; fertility pharmaceuticals requiring special handling or packaging; and sample units to physicians, as well as the verification of practitioner licensure, healthcare account administration, and implementation of consumer-directed healthcare solutions. It serves HMOs, health insurers, third-party administrators, employers, union-sponsored benefit plans, workers’ compensation plans, government health programs, office-based oncologists, renal dialysis clinics, ambulatory surgery centers, primary care physicians, and retina specialists. Express Scripts was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

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Click the Express Scripts Stock Chart for a larger view.

Express Scripts Stock Chart

Friday, March 12, 2010

Market Strength — Further to Go or Topping?

Van Tharp Institute
By D.R. Barton of Van Tharp Institute

Click here for Dr Van Tharp's 2009 Trading Workshop Schedule

Back on February 2nd we looked at the broad market indexes and saw that during a short advance over the first few days February the more speculative Russell 2000 and more notably the Nasdaq 100 were lagging the large caps.

That led to the conclusion that we would get another down leg—we did, though it was a short-lived panic low just a few days later.

Fast forward from early February to today—the opposite is happening. Since the low closes of the indexes on February 8, the Nasdaq 100 and, more spectacularly, the Russell 2000 have outperformed their large cap brethren. We can see this clearly in the performance chart from This chart compares the percentage price movements of the different indices.

S&P500 Russell2000 DJIA QQQ Chart

This rally shows true optimism—buyers are opting for the higher returns of the more speculative indexes despite the possibility of higher risks there. Also, some combination of the major indexes has closed up for 9 straight days. The S&P 500 has been up 8 of the last 9 days. There was only a miniscule down day on Monday, March 8; however, both the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 were up. Historically, this type of persistence has been the harbinger of a rally extending, not topping out.

In the short term, however, the market is getting overbought by many measures including some standard momentum oscillators like stochastics. Some indicators are not showing overbought like RSI, which is still in high neutral territory.

Some sort of near-term correction is fairly inevitable. The depth of the rebalancing pullback will likely foretell the intermediate direction of the market. Let’s look at a chart for key levels.

S&P500 Chart

The 1086 zone in the S&P 500 cash index represents a swing low and a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2/5 low to the 3/9 high. A break below that would certainly signal a high probability for a test of the February 5th lows and beyond. The more likely scenario, though, is that we get a smaller rebalancing pullback that does not even test the 1086 zone. Were this to happen, it would signal continued intermediate strength that could last through tax season.

The bottom line for the market is that we’re certainly due for at least a moderate pullback to relieve the short-term overbought conditions. The nature of the upcoming pullback will help us gauge the strength of the current intermediate-term move. If the pullback is relatively weak, we will most likely see the markets heading even higher.

Click here for more high quality trading education from the Van Tharp Institute

Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Forex Profit Accelerator Trading Course & Online Coaching Program

Forex Profit Accelerator Trading Course
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Good day and good forex trading.

Monday, March 08, 2010

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
Trading Software Systems for Buying Selling Stocks

Asian stocks are rising to a six-week high so far this Monday, with the Europe markets now opening and reacting positively with also the euro strengthened and fears about debt defaults decreasing as French President Nicolas Sarkozy is promising to support Greece with their debt crisis. Marc Faber of Gloom Boom Doom told CNBC that investors should accumulate gold every month now forever or look to Asia and emerging market stocks instead of USA equities. I totally agree. I’m seeing more continued strength and growth in Asia Emerging economies and markets compared to USA and Europe right now.

Major Global Economic Data Reports This Week

Monday: Switzerland Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales. Germany Industrial Production. Canada Housing Starts

Tuesday: Australia Business Confidence. Japan Leading Index. Switzerland Consumer Price Index

Wednesday: UK Gross Domestic Product. Germany Consumer Price Index. New Zealand Interest Rate Decision.

Thursday: Australia and Switzerland Unemployment Rates. USA New York Fed Dudley Speaks to London Economists.

Friday: Canada Unemployment Rate. USA Retail Sales.

My Stock Pick This Week

Is Lattice Semiconductor. The technical’s on Lattice are a strong buy right now. I would also recommend new buy positions on Altera, Cypress Semiconductor and Xilinx in the technology sector too. The Smart Phone market that these companies support is still strong. March 3rd the Lattice said revenue will grow 21 percent to 25 percent from its fourth-quarter levels, which suggests a total of $66.7 million to $68.9 million, and the stock price gapped up and closed from 3.08 to 3.40 that day. Lattice previously predicted revenue growth would not exceed 12 percent. Also they reported robust growth across all product lines and continued strength in new order bookings.

Buy Long Lattice Semiconductor – Ticker LSCC

Buy Entry: 3.28 to 3.66

Stop-Loss: 2.88

Take Profit Areas: 4.32 to 4.43, 4.78 to 4.90

Resistance Areas: 3.59 and 3.67

Lattice Semiconductor Company Profile

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation engages in the design, development, and marketing of programmable logic products and related software. It offers field programmable gate array (FPGA) products, including LatticeECP family, which is designed for customers who need FPGAs with digital signal processing, and is also used to deploy in wireless infrastructure and wireline access equipment, as well as video and imaging applications; LatticeXP, the non-volatile LatticeXP FPGA family embed a flash memory block on-chip to store the program; and LatticeSC that combines a high performance FPGA fabric with high-speed serial communication channels, large memories, and high-speed IO. The company also offers programmable logic device (PLDs) products consisting of ispMACH4000, an in-system programmable complex programmable logic device (CPLD) family; spMach4000ZE that targets handheld and portable equipment; MachXO family of various non-volatile reconfigurable PLDs, designed for applications implemented using CPLDs; and power manager and ispClock programmable mixed signal devices. Lattice Semiconductor Corporation distributes its products directly to end customers through a network of independent manufacturers’ representatives, and indirectly through a network of independent distributors. It primarily serves original equipment manufacturers in the communications, computing, consumer, industrial, automotive, medical, and military end markets. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Hillsboro, Oregon.

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Click the Lattice Semiconductor Stock Chart for a larger view.

Lattice Semiconductor Stock Chart

Friday, March 05, 2010

Macroeconomic Forecasting Pitfalls

Wave Principle Crash Course: There's No Going Back

For over ten decades, the mainstream financial world has embraced the view that external news events drive trend changes in the markets. In less than ten minutes, EWI's senior tutorial instructor Wayne Gorman shatters that very idea into a fine dust, swept away into thin air.

In part one of his exclusive, three-part Club EWI video series "Why Use The Wave Principle," Wayne first assesses the pitfalls of relying on macroeconomic models to forecast; namely: "An investor is lured into the market at just the worst time, when it's time to sell, and forced out just at the best time to buy."

As for real world examples of this happening, Wayne spans three hundred years of financial history to reveal how the most pivotal economic, political, and environmental events failed to alter the course of their respective markets.

Click here for the free video that includes groundbreaking charts on these (and more) well known episodes:

* The S&P 500 and Enron from 2000-2002: The stock market ROSE and continued to proceed upward AFTER the largest US corporate scandal and bankruptcy ever (at the time).

* The Dow Industrials and GDP quarterly data from 1970 to early 2000s: After the release of major negative GDP numbers, the market for the most part ROSE, just the opposite of what most market analysts and investors expect.

* The Dow and profound political events over the last 80 years: In the 1930s and 1940s, a series of negative incidents -- i.e. Hitler rising to power, World War II, and the Holocaust -- preceded a powerful uptrend in stocks all the way into the 1960s.

* Stock market charts of the five countries most affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). Four out of the five ROSE after the natural disaster...

Believe it or not, we've only scratched the surface. In his myth-busting, free video "Why Use the Wave Principle," Wayne Gorman presents a total of 40 charts that capture failed fundamental analysis of the world's leading financial markets. Wayne recalls this expression from a famous, Nobel Prize winning economist:

"Economic reasoning will be of no value in cases of uncertainty."

And he offers this response:

"But isn't that what we have in financial markets: cases of uncertainty? We need a different type of reasoning, one that will help us to avoid the pitfalls shown on the previous charts. That's why the Wave Principle is so important. It offers a unique perspective and a market discipline of rules and guidelines that help investors avoid buying at tops and liquidating at bottoms. It helps to explain and understand trends before they happen."

The flaw in Economic 101, cause-and-effect theory is one of the easiest things to prove. But it's also one of the hardest things for many investors to accept. Now is the time to do so. Watch the free "Why Use the Wave Principle" video in its entirety today at absolutely no cost. Simply sign on to join the rapidly expanding Club EWI and take advantage of the amazing educational benefits membership has to offer.

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Successful Investing Trading

Do You Have the Mental Fortitude to Accept Huge Gains?

What Every Trader Needs to be Successful

1. A method. Any time you enter or exit a market, it must be for a predetermined reason that will also apply in the future.

2. Discipline to follow the method. Without discipline, you really have no method in the first place.

3. Experience. The School of Hard Knocks is the only school that will teach you the emotional aspects of investing, and the tuition is expensive.

4. Acceptance of responsibility. Don't blame the news, "insiders," "floor traders," or "THEM" for your losses. Accept responsibility, and you will retain control of your ultimate success to the extent that the market allows.

5. Accommodation of losses. The perfect trading system does not exist, so your method must deal with taking losses.

6. Acceptance of huge gains. When the big winner finally comes along, you need the self-esteem and confidence in your method to take all that it promises.

Are you ready for the "acceptance of huge gains?"

Are gains possible in a fast moving bear market?

We say "YES." Elliott Wave International instructors Jeffrey Kennedy and Wayne Gorman are presenting intensive 2-day tutorials on "How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market." They are visiting different cities in coming weeks and months. (Find out which cities and sign up here.)

"It's one thing to know how something works, but quite another to make it work for you. The Wave Principle is no exception. Just knowing how it works can give you an edge. But learning how to put it to work in your own trading can really put you ahead of the pack -- especially in this unforgiving bear market."

Here's what attendees of "How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market" enthusiastically said:

"This seminar blew me away. Far more detailed than I expected. I liked the interactive nature of Jeffrey's presentation and the thoroughness of Wayne's presentation. This is the most professional presentation I've ever seen on trading and the best value for the money." -- Bill S.

"Both presenters were very knowledgeable and helpful. Excellent! Thank you!" -- Camille T.

"Highest caliber. One of the best in 45 years. Everything went right! Now I have a much better understanding of the Elliott Wave concept. Thank you!" -- Paul J.

In Prechter's Perspective, Bob Prechter put it this way:"You will know you have arrived when you begin experiencing time after time the deep thrill of discovery and fulfillment as the market follows the Wave Principle and your expectations."

We want you to "arrive" . . . even during the fast moving bear market we anticipate.

That's why experienced Elliott wave instructors Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy are presenting intensive 2 day tutorials on "How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market" in various cities. Make your reservation now by clicking here.

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Efficient Market Hypothesis Real or Not?

Market Efficiency
What Does NOT Move Markets? Examining 8 Claims of Market Efficiency

If everyone says that shocks from outside the financial system -- so-called exogenous shocks -- can affect it for better or worse, they must be right.

It just sounds so darned logical, right? Economists believe this trope to be true, mainly because they believe that investors are rational thinkers who re-evaluate their positions after every new bit of relevant information turns up.

Beginning to sound slightly impossible? Well, yes.

It turns out that logic is exactly what's missing from this it-feels-so-right idea of rational reaction to exogenous shocks. Read an excerpt from Robert Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist to see how Prechter deals with this widely held belief.

Click here to find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook.

The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Learn more, and download your free ebook.

Excerpted from Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist, published Feb. 19, 2010

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) argues that as new information enters the marketplace, investors revalue stocks accordingly. … In such a world, the market would fluctuate narrowly around equilibrium as minor bits of news about individual companies mostly canceled each other out. Then important events, which would affect the valuation of the market as a whole, would serve as “shocks” causing investors to adjust prices to a new level, reflecting that new information. One would see these reactions in real time, and investigators of market history would face no difficulties in identifying precisely what new information caused the change in prices. …

This is a simple idea and simple to test. But almost no one ever bothers to test it. According to the mindset of conventional economists, no one needs to test it; it just feels right; it must be right. It’s the only model anyone can think of. But socionomists [those who use the Wave Principle to make social predictions] have tested this idea multiple ways. And the result is not pretty for the theories that rely upon it.

The tests that we will examine are not rigorous or statistical. Our time and resources are limited. But in refuting a theory, extreme rigor is unnecessary. If someone says, “All leaves are green,” all one need do is show him a red one to refute the claim. I hope when we are done with our brief survey, you will see that the ubiquitous claim we challenge is more akin to economists saying “All leaves are made of iron.” We will be unable to find a single example from nature that fits.

In his February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist, Prechter then goes on to show charts that examine each of these claims that encompass both economic and political events:

Claim #1: “Interest rates drive stock prices.”

Claim #2: “Rising oil prices are bearish for stocks.”

Claim #3: “An expanding trade deficit is bad for a nation’s economy and therefore bearish for stock prices.”

Claim #4: “Earnings drive stock prices.”

Claim #5: “GDP drives stock prices.”

Claim #6: “Wars are bullish/bearish for stock prices.”

Claim #7: “Peace is bullish for stocks.”

Claim #8: “Terrorist attacks would cause the stock market to drop.”

To protect your personal finances, it's important to think independently from the crowd, particularly when the crowd buys into what economists say.

Click here to find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook.

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Forex Smart Start Profit Strategies

Forex Smart Start Profit Strategies
Click here to register for the free Wednesday training.

Join Bill Poulos Wednesday, March 3rd for: "Forex Smart Start Profit Strategies" (3 different times available to fit your schedule - 12:00pm, 4:00pm, & 9:00pm Eastern!)

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* An "insider's view" of my closed-door, private group coaching sessions. These sessions are the quickest way to become an Independent Master Forex Trader...

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Monday, March 01, 2010

Weekly Stock Pick

Buy Sell Hold
The Market Week Ahead

I’ve got a feeling a bear market Armageddon is approaching, but right now, the recover y trade still seems to be on. USA non farm payroll unemployment rate is Friday, and the debt crisis in Greece is not over yet. I see USA and Europe very possibly heading for debt default, and Asia continuing to grow. Call it dislocation, decoupling, or whatever you like, but it’s looking more like that way right now, with Asia markets weathering the economic storm fairly well currently. But then again the western markets of the world can easily bring down the eastern markets as they have in the past. I don’t think so, but have to always be ready for anything.

Major Global Economic Data Reports This Week

Monday: Australia Current Account Balance. Euro-Zone & German Purchasing Managers Index. UK Mortgage Approvals. Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate. Canada Gross Domestic Product. USA Personal Consumption and ISM Manfacturing. Japan Unemployment.

Tuesday: Australia Retail Sales and Interest Rate Decision. Switzerland Gross Domestic Product. Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index. Canada Interest Rate Decision.

Wednesday: UK Consumer Confidence. Australia Gross Domestic Product. Euro-Zone & German Purchasing Managers Index. Euro-Zone Retail Sales.

Thursday: UK Bank of England Asset Purchase Target. European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision. Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision.

Friday: German Retail Sales. USA Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate.

My Stock Pick This Week

Is a short sell on Conoco Philips. Technically it’s a sell right now and fundamentally it’s a hold. Long term the oil companies are a buy, but for right now I see a low-risk high-reward sell here. Warren Buffett owns 2.5% of Conoco Philips and has spent most of 2009 cutting losses on it, in which he said was is worst investment mistake last year. Even if oil prices do continue to rise as he thinks, and I don’t think so, Buffett’s loss on Conoco has already lost him several billion. I believe we will see lower oil prices before we see continued higher prices.

Sell Short Conoco Philips – Ticker COP

Sell Entry: 50.25 to 47.15

Stop-Loss: 50.51

Take Profit Areas: 46.63 to 46.19, 42.04 to 41.64, 35.99 to 35.65

Conoco Philips Company Profile

ConocoPhillips operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. It operates through six segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Midstream, Refining and Marketing (R&M), LUKOIL Investment, Chemicals, and Emerging Businesses. The E&P segment explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and bitumen. It also mines deposits of oil sands in Canada to extract the bitumen and upgrade it into a synthetic crude oil. The Midstream segment gathers, processes, and markets natural gas; and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids in the United States and Trinidad. The R&M segment purchases, refines, markets, and transports crude oil and petroleum products, including gasoline, distillates, and aviation fuels. The LUKOIL Investment segment consists of 20% interest in OAO LUKOIL, an international integrated oil and gas company. The Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics. It offers olefins and polyolefins, such as ethylene, propylene, and other olefin products; aromatics products, such as benzene, styrene, paraxylene, cyclohexane, polystyrene, and styrene-butadiene copolymers; and various specialty chemical products comprising organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, drilling chemicals, mining chemicals, and engineering plastics and compounds. The Emerging Businesses segment develops new technologies and businesses. It focuses on the power generation; and technologies related to conventional and nonconventional hydrocarbon recovery, refining, alternative energy, biofuels, and the environment. This segment also offers E-Gas, a gasification technology producing high-value synthetic gas. As of December 31, 2009, the company had 8.36 billion barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical criteria, and trade pattern setups.

Click the Conoco Philips Stock Chart for a larger view.

Conoco Philips Stock Chart