Friday, July 02, 2010

Bear Market Psychology Made Manifest

Social Mood
Violence and Vandalism: Bear Market Psychology Made Manifest

As world leaders gathered for the G-20 meeting in Toronto on June 26-27, destructive protests broke out in the streets. Local businesses suffered millions in damage. Police cars were set afire.

". . .social mood trends are a two-way street. When the positive trend ends, a negative one takes over for a while. Those trends have social consequences, too: destructive ones, which affect finance, the economy, politics, and all kinds of social relationships." Bob Prechter, Conquer the Crash, 2nd ed. p. 229

You probably know that this gathering is all about the global economy. G-20 meetings started in 1999 in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. The theme for this year's get together: "Recovery and New Beginnings."

We see a "new beginning" eventually, but the "recovery" is not part of the immediate future. That's because the public mood is actually still in the early stage of a downtrend. We have yet to witness the true unwinding of the big credit bubble.

Imagine the number of destructive protests yet to come around the world if the "debt and default" trend persists, and the global economy clearly appears to be on that very course:

Sovereign Defaults Chart
"The basic problem, which will be accentuated enormously by outright deflation, is this: The world does not have enough revenue to service the debt built up over the past 7 decades. The default, restructuring, and repricing of impaired debt is already well underway. Seemingly sound credit risks will turn out to be vulnerable, too, because distressed sales further depresses the value of the underlying collateral. Moreover, the spectre of rating downgrades during deflation is looming."

"Moody's said . . . it may cut Spain's AAA local and foreign currency government ratings after a three-month review. Moody's . . . said the possible downgrade reflects deteriorating short-term and long-term economic growth prospects, and the challenges Spain faces in achieving its fiscal targets." (Reuters)

The list of national and local governments now in financial trouble is long. One spark into the tinderbox may be all it takes to set the streets ablaze again, almost anywhere.

Are you prepared for an escalation of violence and vandalism?

Have you thought about authoritarianism, potentially resulting from emerging "leaders" who say they'll stop the mayhem and restore order, "leaders" who say they'll save the economy?

We've thought about it, and then some. Recently released back-to-back publications that explore the onset of authoritarianism.

The Socionomist is an eye-opening monthly publication from our colleagues at The Socionomics Institute, and both the April and May issues address why authoritarianism's emergence is far more likely than most people imagine.

Plus, you'll benefit greatly by reading the June issue of The Socionomist: it features an interview with Bob Prechter discussing the new science of Socionomics.

Click here to follow this link to start reading the Socionomist.

Click here for a Free Deflation Questions and Answers Report

Click here successfully investing trading the social mood of the markets.