Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Click Here To Follow the Sectors, not the Broad Market Indexes
"Investors that understand how market indexes are constructed uncover great opportunities"
Consider these 2 questions carefully
* With over 10,000 listed companies in America, are the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Index a true representation of the market?
* If the S&P500 Index is in a downward trend, does that mean all stocks and sectors are performing poorly?
Learn to tune out noise
Obviously, the answer to the above 2 questions is a resounding "no". Media reporting of the daily movement of stock market indexes has reduced the analysis of the market into a couple of meaningless sound bites that serves no useful purpose for investors with a strategy.
"Dow up 130 points today"
"Stocks retreated sharply today taking 150 points off the Dow"
"The market opened in weak territory on rumors of..."
The unfortunate result of this reporting bias has been the "conditioning" of mainstream America to emotionally react to a daily fluctuating average, and make ill-advised investment decisions with their life savings.
What to remember about Indexes
An index is simply an average of it underlying parts.
A Numerical Example to make the point:
Suppose we created a simple index of the market consisting of 20 equal sized sectors of the economy, each starting with a value of 10. In this example, the index starts with a total value of 200 points (20 sectors x 10 = 200 points).
Now lets assume at the end of year 1, the index is now worth only 175 points (it dropped 25 points, or 12.5% of its value).
If we break down the yearly result by sectors we discover:
* 14 sectors each dropped in value by 3 (a total value of 98)
* 4 sectors were unchanged (a total value of 40)
* 2 sectors increased by 8.5 points each (a total value of 37)
* Overall index total = 175 (down 25 points, or 12.5%)
* If you bought the index, your loss was -12.5%
* If you bought the top 6 sectors your gain was +28.3%
* If you bought the bottom 6 sectors your loss was -30%
* If you bought the 2 strongest sectors your gain was +85%
The Bottom line
If you continuously invest in the strongest sectors of a market, your returns will outperform that market index.
It's really that simple.
How We Identify Market Leading Sectors
The Sector Timing Report strategically analyzes and ranks sectors indexes and alternate asset classes by their performance strength using our proprietary SECTOR SCORE ranking engine. The SECTOR SCORE is a multi-variable mathematical model that analyzes multiple timeframes of price trend data movement within each sector, as well as its comparative pricing movement in relation to the overall market index. The Sector Timing Report then ranks sectors in descending order of SECTOR SCORE each month to sort the marketplace leaders to the top of a ranking list.
The highest ranked sectors are outperforming the rest of the stock market index, and this is where you will want to position your portfolio. As leadership of market sectors change, you will see new leading sectors rise to the top of the ranking list, while under performing sectors drop in ranks.
Click here to learn more on profiting from sector rotation and how to boost your portfolio results substantially overtime.
Monday, August 30, 2010
China Stock Opportunity Traded on the Nasdaq
First, the US market looks terrible right now trying to find some low-risk high-reward buy long or short sell trades right now. Short term the DJIA and SP500 still look down. Long term the indices could be up if the economy gets fixed and GDP starts increasing again. The US government has much work to do to fix the economy and until that happens I am still leaning to the short side and a very possible double dip recession.
In case you want to buy invest long, this week might be your chance with a company in China that’s traded on the Nasdaq.
China Google Disagreement Presents Opportunity for Baidu
China and Google as good and great as they both are have been having problems with each other for some time now. It’s really too bad no matter what the situation is. Google balked at the Chinese government's censorship of their search results, so searches on Google in China are now limited to categories that don't require the company to censor its results. Whether these two giants work together or not in the future, they should continue to be leading growers on their own in the current and future global economy.
For some this China Google situation is a disaster and for others it’s an opportunity. The opportunity is that the China based internet search giant Baidu is the big beneficiary of this squabble between China and Google. This has allowed Baidu to gain significant China market share now.
Baidu Fundamental Analysis
To start off with Baidu’s earnings growth have hit triple digits, up 112% and 133% in the last two quarters. Analysts expect that growth to continue, predicting strong earnings growth of 111% this year, and 54% in 2011. Baidu has a history of strong earnings, with a 3 to 5 year growth rate of 98%. Its earnings per share growth rate one of the strongest in the industry, and outperforming 99% of all other stocks in the entire market. Baidu's return on equity is currently 40%, well above the 17% minimum often seen in leading stocks. Baidu has caught the attention of professional investors. Mutual funds own about 28% of the shares, and the number of funds owning the stock has increased in the last quarter. Lastly Baidu is a member of the Investors Business Daily Top 100 showing it has what it takes to be a leading global stock performer.
Buy Long Baidu – Ticker BIDU
Buy Entry: 75.99 to 80.10
Take Profit Areas: 89.22 to 92.23, 97.70 to 101.17, 108.31 to 112.06, 125.30 to 129.47. Very Possible Long-Term Hold
Baidu Company Profile
Baidu, Inc. provides Chinese and Japanese language Internet search services. Its search services enable users to find relevant information online, including Web pages, news, images, multimedia files, and blogs through the links provided on its Websites. The company also offers online community-based products and entertainment platforms; an instant messaging service; and a consumer-oriented e-commerce platform. In addition, it designs and delivers online marketing services and auction-based P4P services that enable its customers to reach users who search for information related to their products or services. The company serves online marketing customers consisting of small and medium sized enterprises, large domestic corporations, and Chinese divisions or subsidiaries of multinational corporations primarily operating in the medical, machinery, education, franchising, electronic products, e-commerce, ticketing, tourism, information technology, consumer products, real estate, entertainment, and financial services industries. It sells its online marketing services directly, as well as through its distribution network. The company was formerly known as Baidu.com, Inc. and changed its name to Baidu, Inc. in December 2008. Baidu, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China.
Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical criteria, and low-risk high-reward trade pattern setups.
Click the Baidu stock chart below for a larger view.
Click here for more China Stock Market Resources
Friday, August 27, 2010
The Hindenburg Omen -- Omen-ous or Not?
Elliott Wave International Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg Sheds Light on a Feared Technical Indicator
On Aug. 12, volatile market action coincided with a technical signal called the Hindenburg Omen, whereby a relatively high number of new highs and lows in individual stocks occur at the same time.
This indicator instantly gained an enormous amount of media attention. So we sat down with Steve Hochberg, EWI's chief market analyst and close colleague of Robert Prechter, to ask him about the now-infamous Hindenburg Omen.
EWI: Steve, recently a market indicator called the Hindenburg Omen has been in the news, what is going on?
Steve Hochberg: Discussion of this indicator certainly has been everywhere. Someone emailed us and said they even saw it mentioned on the front page of the Drudge Report! Look, headline-grabbing names grab headlines. Essentially it measures the fractured nature of market action. Over the years, we've discussed numerous times in our publications how a fractured market is oftentimes an unhealthy market. The multiple non-confirmations registered at the recent August 9 stock high, which we talked about in the Short Term Update, are another manifestation of this bearish behavior. The message is consistent with how we view the Elliott wave structure.
EWI: Why are people interested in this particular indicator?
SH: That's a good question, and it speaks to a broader issue, viz., the "re-emergence" of technical analysis into the mainstream consciousness of market participants. In Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter discusses the timing of the popularity of technical analysis, of which Elliott waves, or pattern recognition, is the highest form:
"In long term bull markets, no one really needs market timing because the market is always going up. This was true during the 1950s and 1960s, a period of market strength. And it has been mostly true since 1982. From 1966 to 1982, though, the market was very cyclic, so investors couldn't sleep like babies with a buy-and-hold blanket like they do today."
The S&P 500 has a negative return over at least the past 12 years, so investors are naturally questioning the "broadly diversified, buy and hold" stance advocated by 90%+ of investment advisors. EWI subscribers are way ahead of the mass of investors because as the bear market progresses, the media should show increased focus on technical analysis, including patterns such as head-and-shoulders as well as trendlines, moving averages and, yes, even Elliott waves, just as they did during the last great bear market from 1966 to 1982. It will be an exciting time for those with even a cursory knowledge of the technicals.
EWI: So, what are you seeing now?
SH: Obviously we cannot give away our analysis, but the wave structure is clear, the myriad indicators we keep offer compelling confirmation and the market is accommodating our forecast. If readers have any interest in what this means for not only the stock market, but also all other markets, please give us a read to see if our work might be useful in helping to formulate your investment portfolio. We think it will be a worthwhile endeavor.
Read some of the latest nuggets directly from Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter's desk -- FREE.
Click here to download a free report packed with recent analysis and forecasts from Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.
Click here for more Elliott Wave resources, education, forecasts, advisories, and trading software.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Chicago, IL Aug. 27-28, 2010
This is an intensive Elliott wave and technical analysis trading course, so look forward to a lot of charts, trading scenarios and hands-on exercises.
Here's what you'll learn:
* Elliott Trading Fundamentals
* Risk/Reward Assessment
* Discipline Guidelines
* Psychology of Trading and the Markets
* Technical Tools that Complement Elliott
* Developing a Trading Strategy
* Determining Support and Resistance Levels
* Fibonacci Applications
* Entry and Exit Strategies
* Placing and Adjusting Stops
* Trend Reversals and Pattern Recognition
* And More!
We provide everything you need to become a winning Elliott wave trader. You can even take all the course materials home with you so you can reference the lessons after you leave.
Besides your increased confidence and expanded Elliott wave trading knowledge, you'll also take home a valuable course packet, which you'll receive upon arrival.
Use the workbook and other resources during the course to follow along with each lesson, make notes, complete training exercises on your own – and most important – review the materials as often as you like after you leave.
Here's what's inside your course packet:
(Laptops are not required for this course.)
* EWI's one-of-a-kind Bear Market Tutorial workbook, which includes all of the most important lessons and exercises, handpicked by your instructors
* Sleek, durable USB thumb drive, filled with digital copies of all of Wayne's and Jeff's presentation slides and materials covered during the 2-day course
* The Basics of the Wave Principle, a condensed, "Cliff Notes" style reference book originally created exclusively for EWI analysts
* Personalized name badge and EWI-embossed note-taking tools
Click here for more information and registration.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Hey, in case you haven't seen one of the bazillion emails, the Seven Summits Trader Debut is happening today ;)
Click here to attend the free webinar.
But in all seriousness, I've seen a sneak preview of
the SST and I can definitely see how it would generate
To celebrate the Debut, Mark (the developer) has 2
live webinars planned today: the first at 12pm Noon
and the second at 6pm Eastern (New York Time) - so
check your schedule and see what time works best for
I'll be at the 6pm webinar - honestly, I'm kind of
axious to see what kind of 'extras' he's giving away
for the big debut. (Mark is known for really bringing
the giveaways on release day). The bonuses go like
hotcakes but man, I love all those extras! If you're
anything like me, make sure you pick a webinar and get
your logins ASAP:
Mark will be teaching a lesson on the new 'Scale &
Trail' system, finally shedding some light on what the
system comes with (prepare to be shocked) and host a
live Q&A call with live audience members. So if I were
you, I'd bring your tough, skeptical questions because
you'll probably learn a thing or two.
But whatever you do, try to get your hands on those
giveaways! Many of them are only given out to live
webinar attendees so get your seat right now and maybe
I'll see you later today?
Did you see the most recent SST results update on trading Google?
+31.85 on a 130 minute chart!
Click here for more information.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Efficient Market Hypothesis: R.I.P.
Of all the belief systems of Wall Street, few can claim the devoted following of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the idea that stock prices adhere to the same laws of supply-and-demand that govern retail products. Once coined the theoretical "Parthenon" of economics, this notion has consistently endured the test of time ----- until now. Academics and advisors across the globe are currently exposing crack after crack in the "Efficient" model so deep as to bring the entire theory crashing to the ground.
"The EMH is not only dead," writes a July 29, 2010 news source. "It's really, most sincerely dead." (Minyanville)
As to what caused the theory's collapse -- one recent business journal offers this insight:
"Financial markets do not operate the same way as those for other goods and services. When the price of a television set or software package goes up, demand for it generally falls. When the prices of a financial asset rises, demand generally rises." (The Economist)
Here's the thing. SIX years ago, Elliott Wave International president Bob Prechter pronounced the exact same finding in his April 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist. (Read that full-length publication today, absolutely free by clicking on the hyperlink) In that groundbreaking report, Bob presented the compelling picture below that shows how investors increase their percentage of stock holdings as prices rise, and decrease them as prices fall:
The next question is why?
Answer: Motivation: i.e. the purchase of goods and services is about need; while the purchase of stocks is about desire. Here, Bob Prechter's 2004 Theorist takes the rein:
"The fact is that everyday in finance, investors are uncertain. So they look to the herd for guidance. Because herds are ruled by the majority -- financial market trends are based on little more than the shared mood of investors -- how they feel -- which is the province of the emotional areas of the brain (limbic system), not the rational ones (neocortex)... Buyers, in a rising market appear unconsciously to think, 'The herd must know where the food is. Run with the herd and you will prosper.' Sellers in a falling market appear to unconsciously think, 'The herd must know that there's a lion racing toward us. Run with the herd or you will die.'"
Prechter and contributor Wayne Parker then expanded on his landmark observation in the 2007 Journal of Behavioral Finance. (Also available, absolutely free by clicking on the hyperlink)
In the end, it's not enough to just tear down the long-standing EMH. One must build another, more accurate model up in its place. And in the 2004 Theorist, Bob Prechter does just that with the Wave Principle, which reconciles the technical and psychological sides of stock market behavior into this key point: Herding impulses, while not rational, are also NOT random. They unfold in clear and calculable wave patterns as reflected in the price action of financial markets.
As the mainstream media continues to jump on board Prechter's Financial/Economic Dichotomy Theory, you can read both of Prechter's original writings. Enjoy your complimentary access to the 2004 April 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist and the 2007 Journal of Behavioral Finance.
Read some of the latest nuggets directly from Robert Prechter's desk for free.
Click here to download a free report packed with recent quotes from Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.
Click here for more Elliott Wave Market Commentary
Trading Software Forecasts Seminars Education Videos
Monday, August 23, 2010
By Investors Business Daily CANSLIM Stock Investing Method
Will Big Investors Tune In To TV Listing Firm Rovi?
Today we're going to revisit a stock we last looked at a month ago. It's Rovi (ROVI) and its products help people find and then connect to TV shows, movies and music on any capable device they own. That technology is used by consumer electronics makers.
Rovi also creates electronic program listings for cable TV firms and other carriers. It was featured in an August 16th IBD 100 article, which noted the company is expected to release its Total Guide TV listing product this fall with two big electronics makers.
Rather than just a listing of what's playing on TV, it will also list other forms of entertainment like what's available at Blockbuster video or other download sites.
The company has logged some nice earnings growth gains in recent quarters. Last quarter earnings rose 45%, that's better than the 25% minimum growth often seen in market leaders.
Sales were a little less impressive, coming in at 13% last quarter.
For the full year, analysts see earning rising 36% this year, but predict growth will cool to 19% in 2011.
The stock has a B+ Accumulation/Distribution Rating. That means there's more buying than selling going on among big, professional investors.
And it's held up pretty well compared to the action in the broader market. By comparison, the Nasdaq has a D- Accumulation Distribution Rating.
Return on Equity is 10%. That's below the 17% minimum historically seen in the many leading stocks. That ratio measures how efficient the company is with the money shareholders have invested.
Mutual funds own about 43% of the firm's outstanding shares. And the number of funds owning the stock has risen in recent quarters, so that's a plus.
You see on the weekly chart that last month, the stock broke out of a base (Point 1).
As many of you know, base patterns are important because studies have shown that historically, many of the market's winning stocks formed these chart patterns, then went on to score big gains.
After its breakout, Rovi hit a new high (Point 2). But then as the action in the broader market became choppy earlier this month, it pulled back to its 10-week moving average line (Point 3).
Its pullback has been fairly orderly so far. Even last week, when the Nasdaq suffered a big drop, Rovi fell only slightly. And volume was below average (Point 4). So there weren't a lot of sellers rushing for the exits.
It found support at its 10-week line and now seems to be trying to bounce up from that line (Point 5).
Professional investors sometimes step in to buy shares near the 10-week line. And their buying power can launch sometimes launch a new run up for the stock.
So far, volume hasn't been very impressive. Watch to see if the stock continues to climb and the move happens in above-average volume.
If it does, the buying range would be between the 10-week moving average line (Point 6) and 5% above the peak in the pullback (Point 7).
Rovi's Composite Rating, EPS Rating and Relative Strength Rating are among the best in its industry group.
It's B+ Accumulation/Distribution Rating is also No. 1 in the group.
Click here for the Investors Business Daily Online and Print Editions
Friday, August 20, 2010
Restructuring the Real Estate Market: What It Means for You
By D.R. Barton, Jr. of Van Tharp Institute
“This is like déjà vu all over again.” — Yogi Bera
I have spoken to folks who have recently started to speculate in real estate again. Frankly, the current real estate marketplace is one of the toughest areas to comment on. What happens in real estate is very important to the equity markets, though, so I think we need to dig in a bit and see where the data and analysis trail leads us.
One factor that makes commenting on real estate difficult (as well as commenting on other areas of the economy, by the way) is the 800 pound gorilla in the room throwing around its weight—the US federal government. Trying to discern where market forces might take prices and trends in any given sector is a difficult enough task. When the government, however, makes broad regulatory changes, implicitly and explicitly guarantees debt, and throws out unprecedented amounts of cash, well, they make it nearly impossible.
So with the caveat that any of these government intervention forms could override any credible analysis, let’s take a look at a couple of compelling factors affecting the real estate world. We’ll wrap up with why equities traders and investors need to pay attention to real estate.
Some Useful Data
In March of 2009, I wrote about how both the real estate and equities markets were buoyed by the first economic report of a month-to-month increase in new home sales in over a year. I have included the following chart (current through Feb 2009) to show how small this move up was in the big picture.
(To clarify an acronym, SAAR stands for “seasonally adjusted annual rate,” which means that they take the monthly numbers and project them to an annual number with some allowances for seasonal tendencies.)
In that article almost a year and a half ago, I opined that this was not a reason to get overly excited about the real estate market, since this was just the first sign of the market halting a drastic skid.
And while the real estate sector and its component stocks have improved since then, the argument could be made that the improvement is just the rising tide of the broader equities market lifting all ships. New home sales since that first move up have supported this view.
As the chart shows, there has only been a minor move off of the lows and now we are almost back down to the level of the bottom in February 2009. More telling is that the number of new home starts remains at slightly more than 40% of the relatively static rate of the mid-1990s, and at one-quarter the monthly rate of the unsustainable highs seen in early 2006. The outlook for a big move up isn’t that compelling.
Demographics Are Useful, but Take Them with a Grain of Salt
The Barron’s cover story from a couple of weeks ago was entitled “Renter Nation”. The most interesting data from the article centered on demographics. It’s no surprise that the number of households owning their own homes has dropped by almost 4 million since the peak from a few years ago. The interesting part came from the data about the shifting age demographic in the U.S.
While current overall home ownership stands at 67.2%, the number for households headed by someone under 35 years of age is just 38.9%. This is easy to understand—more folks will own homes as their income increases. The aging trend in America for the next five to six years, however, is toward younger households, with American Demographics magazine forecasting substantial growth in households headed by those under 35 and a decline in households headed by those in the prime house buying age bracket of 35 to 49 year olds.
Quite simply, there will be fewer eligible home buyers in the relatively near term. Add to this the tightening mortgage requirements and the outlook for real estate becomes strained. In fact, 2009 was the first year since the early 1990s when less than 10% of mortgages required less than 10% down. The high for this number was just 2 years ago when 29% of all mortgages were written with less than a 10% down payment.
Real estate speculation is not dead and certainly some there’s some interesting activity in several regions of the country. But those jumping back into that endeavor should do so with eyes wide open. I’m afraid that the days of real estate prices only going up are long behind us. A more likely scenario is another down leg in real estate prices before they can find a bottom and generate the conditions for a more sustained multi-year bull market.
For equities traders and investors, it would be very prudent to keep your eyes on what’s happening in real estate, especially at the national level. It’s a huge part of the economy; it interacts closely with the finance sector and there are big changes afoot. Pay attention to what happens at the meetings currently underway to overhaul what has become a nationalized mortgage financing systems. More on the outcome of that meeting when it concludes. Until then…
Great Trading, D. R.
About the Author: A passion for the systematic approach to the markets and lifelong love of teaching and learning have propelled D.R. Barton, Jr. to the top of the investment and trading arena. He is a regularly featured guest on both Report on Business TV, and WTOP News Radio in Washington, D.C., and has been a guest on Bloomberg Radio. His articles have appeared on SmartMoney.com and Financial Advisor magazine. You may contact D.R. at the Van Tharp Insitute
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Slicing the Neckline: A Classic Technical Pattern Agrees with the Elliott Wave Count
In the August issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist, market forecaster Robert Prechter alerted readers that the U.S. stock market was slicing the neckline of a classic head-and-shoulders pattern in technical analysis, and that this may send the market into critical condition.
Prechter said that when the Elliott wave count and a head-and-shoulders pattern are saying the same thing about the stock market, it's best to pay attention.
Here's how the August issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, the sister publication to Prechter's Theorist, described the head and shoulders pattern unfolding in the stock market:
"The weekly Dow chart [below] shows the development of an intermediate-term, head-and-shoulders pattern from the January high at 10,729.90 to the present. The January high marks the left shoulder, the April 26 high at 11,258 is the head, and the right shoulder is now ending. The April [Theorist] discussed the pertinent characteristics that Edwards and Magee used to define this technical pattern ... all apply to the current formation. Observe how weekly stock trading volume has contracted during the development of the right shoulder, a necessary trait of this pattern. The downward-sloping neckline -- exactly as on the big ten year pattern -- displays market weakness, which is consistent with our interpretation of the wave structure."
This chart shows the head-and-shoulders pattern.
Here's what Robert Prechter himself said in a recent Elliott Wave Theorist:
"Generally, when the neckline slopes downward, the right shoulder does not rise to the level of the left shoulder ..."
Please look at the chart again -- then re-read Prechter's quote.
Click here to read some of the latest nuggets directly from Robert Prechter's desk and download a free market forecast report free.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
The Adventure, the Myth, and the Mystery: A Project Marathon Update
R.J. Hixson of Van Tharp Trading Institute
Since the last Project Marathon update on June 16, I have traded very little—practically not at all. I didn’t expect this in mid-June but with the children out of school for their summer break, my family has had a very full schedule. In the last six weeks, we’ve had two weeks of vacation travel—(semi-vacation for me really), two weeks with family visiting us here, one full week of workshops, and one week over-packed with multiple family activities. While I like to breathe, it seems like that’s merely optional for certain periods. LOL.
Each weekend recently, I decided whether I was going to trade any swing or intraday systems in the coming week. During these last several weeks, my schedule did not support me trading well. I know guys that have full schedules and that trade well with their schedules. My experience is that I’m not there right now. I also remained fully aware of the aggressive goals I set for myself for 2010. (Progress check—about 100R to go and about 75 tradable days left in my year.)
While I was off last month from working “in the business” (trading), I was not off from working “on the business” (reading, research, systems). As I did that kind of work, it struck me how I have continued to invest time and effort in pursuit of trading well even in the absence of consistent fantastic results. “Why is that?” I wondered.
That question stayed with me for awhile and two occurrences happened that related strongly to that question. One was listening to an author, the other was a test that a friend sent me.
This last month I’ve been listening to Bill Moyers’ interview of Joseph Campbell from the documentary, The Power of Myth.
Campbell discusses at length one of the recurring metaphors from mythology—the hero’s adventure. In the pursuit of some arduous goal (the adventure), the hero must lose his self and find support from beyond himself.
Van’s Peak 202 exercise of setting a goal far beyond your comfort zone puts you on the edge and, in effect, on a hero’s adventure. Libby Adams remarked about the wisdom of this exercise recently and Joseph Campbell confirmed it with his explanation of the metaphor of the hero’s adventure.
For me to net 131R this year, I have dragons to slay and a journey to take. I have to let go of the little selves—the parts of me that say, “I can’t,” “I don’t deserve to,” and “I don’t know how.” I have an especially large one that says, “I need to prepare more.” I have to call on a higher power and on my family, friends, and colleagues for support as well. These are not actions I would have had to take with an achievable goal.
People often write in asking if they should go for the goal of becoming a full time trader or joining the Super Trader program. Van provides Campbell’s recommendation to these folks, which relates to the hero’s adventure: follow your bliss. If that’s trading, great—go for it. If trading is not blissful, however, Van recommends pursuing whatever it is that generates bliss for you.
Interested or Committed?
A friend recently attended a weight loss session where the instructor gave everyone a little test to see if they were interested in weight loss or truly committed to it. My friend then adopted the test to trading. (Thanks Jim!)
If you are “interested” in trading…
1. You stick with it until something better comes along (another pursuit or something else in life).
2. How you feel determines your outcome. If you don’t “feel like it,” you stop working on trading-related tasks.
3. You need to see results. When trading isn’t profitable, you lose motivation.
4. You blame everything else (people, markets, circumstances) for your struggles with trading.
5. Whenever you face challenges in life, you give up trading and plan to start again tomorrow, next week or next month.
If you are “committed” to trading…
1. Nothing stops your efforts. You stick with trading, no matter what.
2. Emotions don’t control your actions. You stay on track even when you don’t feel like it.
3. Your motivation isn’t linked to your equity curve. You assume that if you stay motivated and work hard, you’ll eventually see results.
4. You don’t depend on other people or market conditions for your success. You know it’s up to you alone and no one or nothing else.
5. Bad days or a lot of challenges don’t affect your efforts. You keep going in spite of them.
As I read through the statements, my position fell much more on the committed side of the picture.
Back to Why
So what’s the source of my commitment? Bliss is definitely part of it for me. From big picture assessment, to spreadsheet “grunt work,” to self-development, I love the entire process of trading. If I didn’t, there’s no way I could have kept pursuing trading for as long as I have. Still, there’s a reason, a part that I can’t explain fully—it’s a mystery.
Campbell talked at length about the role of mystery in our lives. After listening to him, I’m comfortable allowing that mystery and even appreciating it. I don’t have to get to the underlying reason or analyze it further. Mystery makes life more than a practical or rational activity and connects us to the Divine.
Rather than end this article with opinions, it might be more useful for you to consider your answers to the following:
* What brings you bliss?
* Have you set any goals for yourself beyond your comfort zone?
* Are you “interested” in or more “committed” to trading?
* What actions will you take based on your answers to these questions?
About the Author: R.J. Hixson is a devoted husband and active father. He started trading again almost two years back after completing Van Tharp’s Super Trader Program & Trading Workshops. His previous poor trading symptoms appear to remain in remission. At the Van Tharp Institute, he researches and develops new products and services that will help traders trade better. Despite his advancing years, he still loves the music of young bands typically found on college radio stations. RJ can be contacted at Dr Van Tharp Trading Institute
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Deflation: First Step, Understand It
There is still time to prepare if deflation is indeed in our future.
"Fed's Bullard Raises Specter of Japanese-Style Deflation," read a July 29 Washington Post headline.
When the St. Louis Fed Chief speaks, people listen. Now that deflation -- something that EWI's president Robert Prechter has been warning about for several years -- is making mainstream news headlines, is it too late to prepare?
It's not too late.
There are still steps you can take if deflation is indeed in our future. The first step is to understand what it is. So we've put together a special, free, 60-page Club EWI resource, "The Guide to Understanding Deflation: Robert Prechter’s most important warnings about deflation." Enjoy this quick excerpt. (For details on how to read this important report free, look below.)
When Does Deflation Occur?
To understand inflation and deflation, we have to understand the terms money and credit.
Money is a socially accepted medium of exchange, value storage and final payment; credit may be summarized as a right to access money. In today’s economy, most credit is lent, so people often use the terms "credit" and "debt" interchangeably, as money lent by one entity is simultaneously money borrowed by another.
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt). Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek warned of the consequences of credit expansion, as have a handful of other economists, who today are mostly ignored. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way:
In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following:
(a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common.
(b) Sometimes the excess-of-credit situation seemed to last years before the bubble broke.
(c) Some outside event, such as a major failure, brought the thing to a head, but the signs were visible many months, and in some cases years, in advance.
(d) None was ever quite like the last, so that the public was always fooled thereby.
(e) Some panics occurred under great government surpluses of revenue (1837, for instance) and some under great government deficits.
Near the end of a major expansion, few creditors expect default, which is why they lend freely to weak borrowers. Few borrowers expect their fortunes to change, which is why they borrow freely. The psychological aspect of deflation and depression cannot be overstated. ...
Click here to read the rest of this important 60-page Robert Prechter's report online now, free!
Here's what else you'll learn:
* What Makes Deflation Likely Today?
* How Big a Deflation?
* Why Falling Interest Rates in This Environment Will Be Bearish
* Myth: "Deflation Will Cause a Run on the Dollar, Which Will Make Prices Rise"
* Myth: "Debt Is Not as High as It Seems"
* Myth: "War Will Bail Out the Economy"
* Myth: "The Fed Will Stop Deflation"
Monday, August 16, 2010
Money Burger To Go
I’m so hungry I’ve gone crazy. Crazy to buy some food stocks this week when it looks to me like the DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq are all getting ready to take a big digger down. I can’t believe I’m going to try this, but I am because this is one market everyone around the world needs to live . . . food. Whatever rational that is I don’t know, but I’m putting a buy recommendation on these two food companies based on low-risk high-reward trade setups this week anyway as crazy as it may seem to some. Corn Products International Ticker CPO, and Sysco Corp Ticker SYY.
Everyone Has To Eat To Live Survive and Prosper
I can only hope they don’t follow the broad market if the USA indices take a big downside hit as I’m suspecting. I’m betting on the hope that other traders and investors will buy these stocks because they and everyone else thinks that we all have to eat to live and survive and they will buck any downtrend in the broad market, and put some money into them. If there’s ever a time to stick to stop-loss, this trade plan below is the one for sure. Hopefully the wheat crisis in Russia will help keep driving up food and food company prices at least short term to profit from a swing trade here. Breaking even would even be nice too. Crazy huh? For those that are bulls and food bulls then this might be some crazy analysis you’re looking for to go long. A current bear recommending some buy long positions this week.
After doing a little research on these two companies, for what it’s worth, I found that Zacks Investment Research has a “strong buy” rating on both these stocks. Well that’s little more comforting, but what about the broad market? Most stocks follow the broad market. If the indices tank as I and many others are looking for anytime now, then its stop-loss time on these trade plans if these stocks decide they’re going to follow. Hopefully there’s enough money out there that needs some shelter and food for a little awhile to park some money in these stocks for these trade plans to work out for any amount.
Stock Scans and Screens
These two food companies both showed up on my stock scans this Monday morning as low-risk high-reward buy long positions as well as a bunch of short sell candidates too. If there was only one, I wouldn’t have paid much attention, but with two of these food stocks showing up on the radar screen suggesting they could buck the current downtrend, I became more interested, and more willing to take the buy long bet here. I still think I’m crazy to buy long on any stock in these market conditions right now, but maybe this will work out. To keep your risk low on this trade plan, buy lightly and stick to stop-loss. If the trade plan works out, you can buy more as the price momentum picks up.
Buy Long Corn Products International – Ticker CPO
Buy Entry: 32.85 Upside Breakout
Stop-Loss: 31.42 to 30.22 or No More Than 8% from Your Entry Price
Take Profit Targets: 36.84 to 37.87, 39.23 to 40.33, 44.20 to 45.21, 50.60 to 52.05
Buy Long Sysco Corp – Ticker SYY
Sysco is reporting Earnings this Monday so you may want to wait for the release to take a position.
Buy Entry: 29.80 to 30.35
Take Profit Areas: 31.78 to 32.17, 33.05 to 33.44, 35.47 to 35.94, 37.20 to 37.63
Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical criteria, and trade pattern setups.
Click the Corn Products International and Sysco stock charts below for a larger views.
Corn Products International Company Profile
Corn Products International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells various food ingredients to food and industrial customers in North America, South America, Asia, and Africa. It offers food ingredients and industrial products derived from wet milling, and the processing of corn and other starch-based materials. The company provides sweetener products, including fructose corn syrups, glucose corn syrups, maltose corn syrups, dextrose, polyols, maltodextrins, and glucose and corn syrup solids; and starch products, such as industrial and food-grade starches. It also offers refined corn oil to packers of cooking oil and to producers of margarine; salad dressings; shortening; mayonnaise; and other foods. In addition, the company provides corn gluten feed that is used as protein feed for chickens, pet food, and aquaculture; and steepwater, which is used as an additive for animal feed. Corn Products International offers its products to various industries, including the food and beverage, pharmaceutical, paper products, corrugated and laminated paper, textile, and brewing industries, as well as animal feed and corn oil markets. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Westchester, Illinois.
Sysco Company Profile
Sysco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes a range of food and related products primarily to the foodservice industry in the United States. It distributes a line of frozen foods, such as meats, fully prepared entrees, fruits, vegetables, and desserts; a line of canned and dry foods; fresh meats; dairy products; beverage products; imported specialties; and fresh produce. The company also supplies various non-food items, including paper products, such as disposable napkins, plates, and cups; tableware comprising china and silverware; cookware consisting of pots, pans, and utensils; restaurant and kitchen equipment and supplies; and cleaning supplies. Sysco Corporation offers its products to restaurants, hospitals and nursing homes, schools and colleges, hotels and motels, lodging establishments, and industrial caterers. As of June 27, 2009, it operated 186 distribution facilities serving approximately 400,000 customers. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Friday, August 13, 2010
7 Ways to Become an Unsuccessful Trader
To be a successful trader demands knowledge.
If you'd prefer to become an unsuccessful trader, you can start by making the following common trading mistakes, detailed by a professional who spent 25 years in portfolio management, trading and forecasting in the financial capital of the world, New York City.
In 2002, Wayne Gorman, long-time Elliott wave trader and current head of trader education at Elliott Wave International, left his 35th floor Manhattan apartment and moved to the quiet of North Georgia. He's been sharing his knowledge and skills with aspiring traders ever since -- in both online seminars and before live audiences around the world.
Wayne graciously agreed to a Q&A about trading mistakes. In his interview, Wayne reveals seven common mistakes traders make.
EWI: Could you name two mistakes frequently made by stock traders?
Wayne Gorman: (mistake 1) The first big mistake is the flawed logic of extrapolation. Many traders and investors assume that a trend will remain in force until an "event" comes along to change it. But market trends are not like billiard balls on a pool table. This false assumption will put you on the wrong side of the market more times than not, especially at major turning points.
(mistake 2) The second big mistake is to suppose that news events drive market trends. In fact, the opposite is true: economic, political and social events lag market trends.
EWI: What are two common mistakes among options traders?
WG: (mistake 3) One common mistake is to buy puts or calls that are way "out of the money," with no other transactions to compliment them. Unless your timing is absolutely perfect -- and who has perfect timing? -- your chance of success is low. It’s like buying a lottery ticket.
(mistake 4) Another common mistake is to buy options with too little time left to expiration. With less than one month to expiration, the time decay begins to accelerate and the chances of success diminish.
EWI: Please name a frequent mistake among traders who aim to catch the beginning of a particular Elliott wave.
WG: (mistake 5) In the middle of a corrective pattern, it's common to run out of patience while waiting for confirmation of a trend change. You have to give corrective patterns time to unfold before you jump in. This requires discipline, and a solid understanding of the many ways corrective patterns can unfold.
EWI: What's the biggest misconception among traders about using Elliott waves?
WG: (mistake 6) Too many traders think Elliott wave is a trading system that tells you exactly where to enter and exit a particular market. That's the biggest misconception. The reality is that it's an analytical and forecasting tool, which helps you develop and use your own trading system, based on your own personal risk tolerance.
EWI: What technical indicators do you believe traders over-rely on, and why?
WG: (mistake 7) Traders tend to over-rely on momentum indicators such as RSI, Stochastics and MACD to precisely spot turning points. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, markets can stay overbought or oversold a lot longer than either you or I can remain solvent.
EWI: How would you characterize today's market action, and do you teach courses that address this environment?
WG: This is a difficult stock market in the near term. Prices haven't strayed far from where they began in January. The action has yet to break out significantly to the downside or upside. This situation may not last much longer. I can suggest these online courses to deal with the current situation, and to prepare for the next big move:
* How to Spot Trading Opportunities, Parts 1 and 2
* How to Trade Choppy, Sideways Markets
* 5 Options Strategies Every Elliott Wave Trader Should Know
* Trading the Line – How to Use Trendlines to Spot Reversals and Ride Trends
Thursday, August 12, 2010
What I wouldn't give for a Crystal Ball...
You know, where you're knee-deep in a trade but for whatever reason (be it gut, instinct or fear) you jump out to keep the small amount of profit you gained only to see the market spike in your favor just as you jumped out?
Ugh, there's no way around it - that sucks!
A Crystal Ball would have been nice at that moment. You know, something that could warn you when the odds are in your favor so despite your fear, you've GOT to stay in to really steal as much profit as you can!
Good news: I've actually INVENTED this Crystal Ball... and it's called the Dynamic Profit Generator.
Through use of well-known & well-respected trending principles - that an ACTION creates a REACTION that, in turn, spawns another similar action - I've literally isolated a whole new trending strategy that allows me to predict how the market is going to move (just like a Crystal Ball)!
I've engineered this extremely powerful strategy into a piece of simple and elegant software that actually does 99% of the work for you...
* 3 simple steps to get the Dynamic Profit Generator to work for you
* Compatible on all charting platforms, data feeds, markets & time frames
* No system? No problem. The DFG is your 1-stop for simple, stress free profit
* You get: the DPG Software + Dynamic Calculator, In-Depth Video Training and Comprehensive Market Walk-Throughs so you can not only learn how to 'turn on' your Crystal Ball but wield it like a pro!
Again, you don't have to be trading ANY specific system to be able to start profiting with the Dynamic Profit Generator Got TradeStation? Think or Swim? MetaTrader? Trade Options, the EURJPY or ETFs? They're ALL compatible with the DPG - I custom developed this software to be used as universally as possible.
Don't believe me? Just pop in your email address, download the software and if it doesn't work just delete the entire thing with my apologies... after all, the price is right (it's 100% FREE).
But in all seriousness, I've put in alot of manhours developing this software so use my hard work to boost your own bottomline! Type in your email address and I'll send you your download link immediately to your inbhox. Give it a shot right now... you just might learn something ;)
Click here to get the Dynamic Profit Generator Software Free now.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Whats Different About Trading in Bear Markets?
I sat down to talk with Jeffrey Kennedy, EWI's Senior Commodity Analyst and editor of The Futures Junctures Service, about his upcoming Online Academy trading tutorial.
Vadim Pokhlebkin: Jeffrey, next month you and your EWI colleague Wayne Gorman are starting a first-ever 8-session trading course called "How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market." I hope to be able to attend, as I'm sure are many of our readers. But I can also imagine some people wondering, "What 'bear market'?" Stocks have been up for more than a year now. The crash of 2007-2009 is becoming a hazy memory. Yet your course has "bear market" in the title -- and not just any bear market, but "a fast-moving" one. Can you explain?
Jeffrey Kennedy: You mentioned Wayne Gorman, my fellow course instructor -- he, actually, has a great answer to this question, and I know you are also interviewing him soon, so I won't steal Wayne's thunder. For my part, let me say this.
First, what I primarily focus on in the course is the application of the Wave Principle as a trading methodology. The tools and techniques I teach work equally well in bull and bear markets. And secondly, no bear market is a straight drop from 100 to 0. Yes, there are dramatic moves to the downside -- but there are also rallies along the way, just as dramatic.
A good example of that is the bear market in commodities from 1980 to 2000. A twenty-year bear market, yes, but during that time, there were many instances where soybeans or wheat, for example, would double or almost triple in price. (The 2007-2009 stock market crash also offered a few other vivid examples of this. -- Ed.) I've seen this over an over again: In bear markets, prices swing hard both ways. So what we try and do with this course is actually prepare you for both.
VP: Many visitors to elliottwave.com already have trading experience. Some have done it for their own accounts, others did it professionally. Is trading in a bear market really so different that you have to teach it?
JK: Wayne Gorman and I have taught this trading course before; we've done at least 30 or 40 tutorials now, from New York to Sydney. And one thing never fails: There is always someone in class who's new to trading -- and they walk away feeling enriched, because, they tell us, they really did learn something. But what's even more exciting to me as an instructor is when I have professional traders, traders who have been in the business for 20 or 30 years, sit through my portion of the tutorial and say that they've walked away with a new way to look at the market, or a reaffirmation of their old trading discipline. So I know for a fact that regardless of your trading experience, the upcoming Online Academy has something to offer.
VP: You said Wayne Gorman and you have taught this tutorial before in a live classroom setting. How different do you expect the September-October Online Academy version to be?
JK: Absolutely the same. The material Wayne and I are teaching online is the same we've taught in classrooms. The huge plus is the convenience. Instead of having to travel to New York, or London, or Chicago, or wherever we've taught in person before, here you get eight two-hour online sessions presenting the same material, minus the jet lag.
VP: I'm sure your students ask you about your background. What can you share about your qualifications as a trading tutorial instructor?
JK: I've been with Elliott Wave International since 1993. I have both actively traded the markets and been a professional technical market analyst for almost 20 years. I am a member of the Market Technicians Association, Technical Securities Analysts Association, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and the UK-based Society of Technical Analysts. As one of EWI's Senior Instructors, I've been teaching trading with Elliott for over 10 years, have done individual consulting for traders, as well as presented in front of groups of over 300 people. My colleague Wayne Gorman and I have taught together dozens of times before, and students tell us we make a good team.
VP: Thank you for your time, Jeffrey. Hope to be able to join you and Wayne in September.
JK: My pleasure!
Get more details here, about the upcoming September-October 8-session trading course with Jeffrey Kennedy and Wayne Gorman.
The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth
The single most convenient untruth about the 2008 (and counting) financial crisis is that it was unforeseen. For two years policymakers have insisted "There was no way to know ahead of time" that the liquidity boom would come to a screeching halt. Back in November 2008, in fact, the usually tight-lipped Queen of England herself publicly described the turmoil of international markets as "awful" and openly asked a panel of experts from the London School of Economics "Why did nobody notice?"
Her Majesty is right: Most financial authorities did NOT notice the crisis before it was too late. Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" of all places provided the most poignant evidence: A March 2009 video montage shows executives and economists from the world's leading financial firms repeatedly forecasting continued upside strength in stocks, plus renewed bull market growth in financials -- right as debt markets came unhinged and the US stock market headed into a 50%-plus selloff.
Dubbed the "8-Minute Rap" (after the "18-Minute Gap" of Nixon's Watergate tapes), the Daily Show video feature sent an equally powerful message, as the video here shows.
Yet even as the mainstream authorities failed to detect the economic earthquake moving below their own feet, somebody did "notice" well in advance. That person was EWI's president Bob Prechter.
The clip below is from a 2007 Bloomberg interview. Clear as PLAY, the foreseeable nature of the crisis emerges from Bob's October 19, 2007 interview.
As the historic trend change began to unfold, Bob issued this timely insight:
"We've seen the first crack in the credit structure with a huge drop in commercial paper... These are the harbingers of a change toward the downside for the stock market, commodities including oil, and the debt market itself."
Don't believe the convenient untruths. Get objective market analysis today.
Download this free report that contains valuable market forecasts directly from the desk of Bob Prechter.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Blueprint for Trading Success Workshop August 13 - 15, 2010
Through his modeling work with top traders, Van Tharp has discovered the blueprint for trading success that will ensure you consistent prosperity as a trader.
Now you can benefit from his experience and expertise as he takes you through the precise steps that you should take.
This course is a complete structured program that will launch you to a more advanced skill level in your trading. You’ll learn strategic, focused steps that will serve you throughout your entire trading career.
Overall it’s a course that offers an immense amount of information about what most would consider the unattractive part of trading, yet it is the most critical to successful trading.
During these intensive, hands-on three days, you will learn 17 clear and concise tasks to master that will take your trading from ho-hum to visionary. You will leave with a thorough checklist of action steps to guide you to a higher level of performance.
In just three days you’ll see how all of Van Tharp ’s strategic trading concepts fit into one seamless design for more predictable trading results. Your trading will never be the same.
This course illustrates the relationships among the steps so that the process is logical and reasonable. Moreover, Van Tharp will show you how to take each step experientially, so you really get it. Dr. Tharp is an expert in delivering elicitation questions to bring forth each person’s most important issues.
"This is the best conference I have ever attended. This is the hardest conference I have ever attended. I had to ask myself some of the most difficult questions I've asked in a long time...Van and Mel are not just great trading coaches, they are great people. You are a breath of fresh air in an industry full of hucksters." —S.W., Rancho Mirage, CA
"The course far exceeded my expectation and threw up ideas which had just not existed on the mental horizon. Apart from being a better trader, this course will make me a happier and more complete human being. A stupendous course." — Satyendra Kumar, India
Let’s talk about a few of the key concepts that will be explored in depth at this workshop.
You need to assess your beliefs about trading and about yourself.
Nobody actually trades the market. Instead, you only trade your beliefs about the market. At first this is a difficult concept to grasp. But if you begin to jot down some of your beliefs about trading using “I am,” “I feel,” “I experience myself as,” statements, you will see what I mean. Your beliefs about trading guide your trading results. It is easy to get to a certain point in this type of exercise and get stuck. In this workshop, Van Tharp will personally guide you through the exploration of your belief system about trading. You’ll be amazed at the results.
“The BluePrint for Trading Success is a fantastic course! An incredibly comprehensive plan to take anyone willing to apply the steps taught to the level of a master trader. In fact, so much material is covered it would have been overwhelming if not for the open approachableness of Van and Melita to answer any and all questions. I feel like I’ve just been placed in the fast lane to market success! This seminar is very much worth the investment.” — Peter Swanson, Lufkin, TX
"The course was excellent! It gave me a clear idea of what is required to become a successful trader. The opposite of most trading seminars that teach what people what to hear, rather than what they need. Thank you for making this course available." — Ariele Rodino, United Kingdom
Objectives set the roadmap for the entire system development process.
System experts know that understanding your objectives thoroughly is half the battle in developing a system, but most people have never taken the time to consider their objectives.
Your objective is your goal, your target—what you want your system to accomplish.
How would one know how to get someplace if they didn’t know where they were going first? There are endless configurations of objectives. The point is you need to know specifically what it is that you are trying to attain; only then can you develop a successful, profit-driven plan of action.
In this workshop you will work through questions to help you determine exactly what you want out of your trading system.
Some of those questions include:
· What percent would you like to increase your account by each year?
· What percentage drawdown are you willing to tolerate?
· What kind of statistics will you collect on a regular basis to monitor your trading progress?
Van Tharp will give you 25 specific statistics to get you started!
“This course clarified for me how to get my business plan done, and actually enjoy doing it.” — Paul,MD
"The workshop was excellent and did a very effective job to showing how to develop a business plan for trading. The balance between business planning, developing trading strategies, and working on myself was just right." M McDowell
We’ve found that most traders and investors are missing one key ingredient in their objectives—and that’s the ingredient that will make them financially free.
For example, at a recent workshop Dr. Tharp was told of a trader who made 1000% return in one year. But that trader was missing this critical ingredient. And it’s probably the difference between whether or not all of that profit will be put to good use or lost in future trading. At this new workshop, we’ll tell you this key ingredient and teach you how to include it as part of your objectives.
“The course was very worthwhile for me. I find that the broad summary of the overall process of developing skills allowed me to put things in a better perspective. I have a much better idea of which areas I need to put the most emphasis and work on. I also found the interaction with the other participants invaluable.” — Craig Herdman, Phoenix , AZ , Past Attendee
What markets will perform well in the next 5 years?
Successful traders know how to access the big picture of what the market is doing overall. As part of your blueprint, you’ll learn Dr. Tharp’s interpretation of the big picture and how to determine the big picture for yourself. This is a very important skill, and if you really take the time to do it, it is probably worth the price of the workshop all by itself.
Your business plan will need to include three strategies that are compatible with the big picture.
Although there are thousands of systems out there, there are not many types of strategies. Learn the essence of the key strategies that you could use, the general picture of how they work and how you can adapt them for yourself.
We hear from our students that they know business planning is important, but in some case they don’t even know what a trading business plan should look like. You’ll leave this workshop knowing what to strive for and with a template in hand to follow as you progress.
“Prior to coming to this workshop I had come to a realization in trading that I needed help structuring a business plan, knowing how to approach and measure strategy development and how to deal with personal traits that reoccur and are not beneficial to me and trading. These expectations were met and exceeded. Two things I found particularly valuable 1) How personal beliefs translate through market beliefs all the way to the specifics of each particular strategy. 2) The structure of materials and workbook is laid out to easily take home and continue with the work.”— Jim Sterk, Lynden, WA
Personal edges set you off from the crowd. Having an edge in the markets isn’t just a slight advantage; it could be the pivotal difference in your success. So it’s very important to list your edges in your business plan and to be able to capitalize on them. Learn the key edges that almost any investor has over market makers or institutional investors. Or if you are a CTA, hedge fund, or portfolio manager, learn your specific key edges.
Learn the 8 critical areas of contingency planning!
In this workshop, Dr. Tharp will share mistakes that other traders have faced, so that you can find out how to generate an extensive worst-case contingency plan. You’ll learn strategies of how to deal with each disaster so that they minimize the effect on your trading business. Learn the key areas around which your worst-case contingency plan should revolve and get a good start on creating them at this workshop.
This process could take you six months if you did it by yourself. However, one of my supertraders did the hard work for you and is willing to share the essence of his worst case contingency plan. In addition, in past workshops, the entire group has usually been able to double the number of things you need to plan for to prevent disaster. What’s it worth to you to save six months in planning time? Well, that’s one of the key benefits of this workshop.
“I came to learn/confirm a valuable foundation/blueprint for becoming the best trader I can be. I got that and more. Good sharing of ideas with other attendees. Purpose for existence discussion was an enriching experience that I valued highly. Thank you.” — Paul Beattie , Canada , Past Attendee
We’ll show you a formula that will allow you to compare your system with any other system in the world and rank that system. Thus, you’ll know whether you have a weak, average, good, excellent, or superb system. This is new information that we’ve just introduced into our curriculum and you’ll learn it here.
Would you like to know a simple way to get to know your system well without a lot of cost? Using this method you’ll be able to understand if your back testing was accurate. We’ll cover this on day two of the course.
You’ll have worksheets from which to write your business plan and a structure through which you can develop three systems to fit the big picture. It’s a lot of information, but think how you’ll feel when you understand and have all of this key information at your fingertips!
Who Knows What You Want better Than You?
Here are just a few of the exercises we’ll be covering in the critical self-assessment portion of the workshop.
* Learn your personality type and how it impacts trading.
* Learn about the most important attitude that you must have as a trader and assess yourself on it.
* Learn about your beliefs and values and how to assess yourself.
* Go through worksheets to assess your key issues so that you know what could happen that might really interfere with your trading.
"I think the outline of the course itself is extremely helpful. It does give me a blueprint of what needs to be done... I have a really good idea not only of all the work I have to do, but the order to do it in." —Ed Reardon, IL
"The workshop was excellent and did a very effective job to showing how to develop a business plan for trading. The balance between business planning, developing trading strategies, and working on myself was just right." —Mark McDowell
One of the steps will separate you from other traders and launch you toward top trader status.
This step alone will leave such powerful tools at your disposal that you’ll wonder why you never thought of doing these things before. Dr. Tharp will go through each of these suggestions on a step-by-step basis to show you what you need to do at home. And if you take home at least three of these with the commitment to really doing them, you’ll be unstoppable.
“A seminar that covers an enormous range of topics, but all were covered adequately. Very much appreciated Day 3—this was surprising to me as to just how critically important this is. The opportunity to learn this in a “laboratory” environment was terrific: I can’t imagine that my work on PPC [Peak Performance Course] would be the same (I’ll start it later this year) without this seminar. I suspect that I will look back at this seminar as a pivotal career moment (but I suspected this beforehand…)” — Forrest Ciesol, La Jolla , CA
You’ll learn how to develop a top down approach to discipline.
You’ll get worksheets to begin this process and exercises to complete so that you can apply what you’ve learned as soon as you return home. Few traders have the kind of discipline we’ll be teaching, but you’ll leave the workshop with all the tools you need to apply and use this strategy. And if you combine top-down discipline with regular self-work, you’ll be amazed at the difference in your trading.
“My self-discipline had been slipping for trading and with it was going my drive. This course delivered the structure for getting back on track. Thank you.” — Richard Fotiades, Port Jefferson, NY
Learning and studying are very important factors in any endeavor; however, the only true way to be successful as a trader is to take action. Get in there and learn from your experiences. If you are truly dedicated to being a successful trader, then after this workshop you will have all the tools that you need to set yourself up to win!
We’ll finish this three day workshop with a review of all of the steps, and you’ll get a chance to start developing your plan to put everything into action when you return home.
When you leave this workshop you’ll have:
* Completed worksheets so that you can develop your own trading business plan. And when you leave, trading won’t just be a hobby for you. You’ll have the core of your new plan to turn it into a professional business. We find that less than 5% of all traders and investors have a business plan to guide their trading. But when you leave this workshop, you’ll have everything you need to join them. Imagine what a boost that will be to your trading.
“Challenging and very helpful. The best part was the complete structured program for becoming a great trader, around which the workshop is based, and the 52 exercises and worksheets that we are taking home. I really feel that I have what I need to continue this work at home in the upcoming months.” — Daniel Fylstra, Incline Village, NV
* You’ll also have the logic worked out for how to develop at least one new trading system designed for your personality. It comes from the intersection of three sets of beliefs that you have and well show you exactly what to do. You’ll have worksheets completed on the major steps involved in developing a great trading system. When you get home, all you’ll need to do is put the steps into practice. Most people fill their heads with all the details of various trading systems and never even begin to develop a sound system. However, when you finish day two, you’ll have a broad overview of exactly what you’ll need to do. Perhaps for the first time, you’ll be able to see the whole forest, instead of just the trees. You’ll have the structure of what you need to do. How do you think you’ll feel when you have that in place?
* And lastly, you’ll have a daily procedure worked out to improve the most important factor in your trading—you. You’ll have three daily routines in three distinct areas that, if you put them into practice, will make you a better, happier, and more effective trader. In addition, we’ll help you develop the structure for a top down approach to discipline, which I believe is the key to your success. What you’ll have in place is critical advantages that few other traders have. And this will not only improve your trading, it will improve your entire life.
And isn’t that what you really want?
“... I thought the course was very well-organized and delivered. I especially liked the ordering of the material as it followed the sequential steps necessary to becoming a great trader. The course content will provide an excellent resource, not only in finishing my business plan, but also in keeping me on track in the future. I thoroughly enjoyed it and found the content very useful. I actually feel like I’ve come away with a complete “blueprint” I can use to make sure I’m doing all the necessary steps to become and maintain myself as a great trader. It will be very useful in finalizing my business plan.” — Rick Freeman, Dublin, CA
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