Thursday, December 02, 2010

Arabian GCC Stock Markets

Arabian Stock Markets
Arabian GCC Stock Markets: Aladdin's Lamps or Handfuls of Hot Sand?


Arabian lands have a long history, but the history of their stock market data is downright brief. Even so, the good news is that we have enough data to make intermediate Elliott Wave forecasts.

Elliott Wave International uses Jordan's Amman General Index as a proxy for the region. As the November Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast explains, there's a two-fold reason for this:

"Jordan (a) is located at a crossroads of the Middle East; and (b) is the oldest market in the region with a continually traded price history. (Kuwait’s is older, but it stopped trading from 1990 to 1992 due to the Iraqi invasion)."

Of course, EWI looks at individual Arabian markets too.

But let's back up a step as we take you to the banks of the Nile River, and the home of the Great Pyramid of Giza -- the last of the seven ancient wonders still standing.

EWI analyst Mark Galasiewski recently traveled to Cairo, Egypt, and got an up-close sense of the investment mood there. Mark spoke to an audience at the Money Experts International Forum, and learned that Egyptian stock market bears outnumbered the bulls by 4 to 1.

He wasn't surprised by this bearish "show of hands." In fact, Mark expected more investors to be "down" on the Egyptian market because prices there have been in a correction.

During his "give and take" with the audience, Mark learned several specific reasons for their bearish sentiment. Among them was the uncertainty over Egypt's coming 2011 presidential election.

In the latest Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, Mark spoke directly to this concern:

"Elliott waves don’t care about politics — or any other news event for that matter. This may sound extraordinary, but even if there were no upcoming elections in Egypt, most Arabian stocks would still have fallen [referencing the correction from which the Egyptian market is emerging.]"

Ten national stock indexes are highlighted in a Special Section of the November Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast -- including Dubai. As you may recall, news about the emirate's debt crisis began to surface a year ago.

As Mark Galasiewski reports, Dubai real estate has lost some 50 percent of its value from peak prices. Does this fact relate to Dubai's stock market going forward? Well, Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast presents a revealing price chart of the Dubai market going back at least five years, and that chart is labeled with three key financial developments. Look at the chart and read Mark's analysis -- you'll likely reach your own conclusion about the probable direction of the Dubai market in the weeks and months ahead.

Moreover, you can read about 3 exchange-traded funds in Arabian markets.

Arabian merchants of old traveled with long caravans of goods-laden camels across open desert. Modern merchants trade shares on stock exchanges. We examine if a bull market is about to be awakened in specific Arabian markets -- or if some investors will only be rewarded with handfuls of hot sand.

Discover what Mark Galasiewski learned in Cairo, and how he reconciles "investor mood" with what Elliott waves are showing him.

Click here to start your risk-free read of the latest Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast.

Click here for more information resources on the Arabian Stock Markets.