Monday, December 26, 2011

Happy New Year from Invest2Success


This is my last stock pick for 2011 and it’s a bullish call on VF Corporation. The DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq indicies all look like the Santa Claus Rally is underway now. For how long this rally will last is hard to say with all of the economic uncertainty globally currently, but I think on selective case by case basis some stocks will do very well in 2012 and possibly beyond. The VF stock chart is in a very nice uptrend, and the fundamentals of strong quarterly earnings surprises are showing in the chart making VF a very nice low-risk high-reward buy-long position this week.

On October 28 Zacks Investment Research reported that VF Corporation carried its momentum into the third quarter and knocked it out of the park once again. The company delivered its 8th consecutive positive earnings surprise on 16% organic revenue growth.

Management raised its guidance for the remainder of 2011, and earnings estimates have been soaring, sending the stock to a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy).

The company also hiked its dividend by 14%, marking its 39th straight year of higher dividend payments.

Third Quarter Results

VF Corporation reported its third quarter results on October 24. It was another excellent quarter for the company. Earnings per share came in at $2.87, crushing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 32 cents. It was a stellar 29% increase over the same quarter in 2010.

Revenues rose 23% to $2.750 billion, ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.620 billion. Revenue was boosted in part by the Timberland acquisition. However, organic revenue growth was still a remarkable 16%.

Each segment achieved strong revenue growth in the quarter. Its largest division, Outdoor & Action Sports, saw organic revenue growth of 22% driven by strong gains in its The North Face and Vans brands.

The gross margin did contract a bit in the quarter from 46.5% to 45.3% of sales, but this was somewhat offset by the leveraging of its fixed expenses.

These factors led to a 21% increase in operating income over the same quarter in 2010.

Raised Guidance

Following another strong quarter, management raised its guidance for the remainder of 2011. The company now expects earnings of $8.15 per share on revenue growth of 22-23%, up from prior guidance of $7.50 per share.

This prompted analysts to revise their estimates for both 2011 and 2012 significantly higher, sending the stock to a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy).

Analysts expect the strong business momentum to continue for at least the next couple of years. Based on consensus estimates, analysts project 27% earnings growth this year and 15% growth next year.

As you can see in the company's Price & Consensus chart, consensus estimates have been soaring over the last several months as the company has delivered 8 consecutive positive earnings surprises:

Raised Dividend

In addition to strong earnings growth, VF Corporation pays a dividend that yields a solid 2.1%. The company announced in its third quarter release that it was increasing its quarterly dividend by 14%.

This marks the 39th consecutive year of higher dividend payments.

The Bottom Line

With earnings momentum accelerating and strong growth and income characteristics, VF Corporation still offers plenty of upside potential.

Buy VF Corporation – Ticker VFC

Buy Entry: 122.99 to 129.13

Stop-Loss: 113.21

Take Profit Areas: 142.89 to 149.09, 154.71 to 161.63, 169.25 to 176.51

Company Profile

V.F. Corporation designs and manufactures, or sources from independent contractors various apparel and footwear products primarily in the United States and Europe. The company offers apparel, footwear, outdoor gear, skateboard-inspired and surf-inspired footwear, backpacks, luggage, handbags and accessories, outdoor apparel, travel accessories, and women’s active wear primarily under the Vans, The North Face, JanSport, Eastpak, Kipling, Napapijri, Reef, Eagle Creek, and lucy brands; and denim and casual bottoms, and tops principally under Wrangler, Lee, Riders, Rustler, and Timber Creek by Wrangler brands. Its products also include occupational, athletic, and licensed apparel primarily under the Red Kap, Bulwark, Majestic, MLB, NFL, and Harley-Davidson brands; men’s fashion sportswear, denim bottoms, sleepwear, underwear, as well as handbags, luggage, backpacks, and accessories principally under the Nautica and Kipling brands; and denim and casual bottoms, sportswear, accessories, men’s apparel and footwear, and women’s sportswear primarily under the 7 For All Mankind, John Varvatos, Splendid, and Ella Moss brands. The company sells its products to specialty stores, department stores, national chains, and mass merchants primarily through its sales force, independent sales agents, and distributors. V.F. Corporation was founded in 1899 and is based in Greensboro, North Carolina.

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Click the VF Corp stock chart below for a larger view.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Merry Christmas from Invest2Success


All of us at Invest2Success wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas.

This Monday I've got a buy recommendation on Cabot Oil and Gas. Technically and fundamentally Cabot looks like a nice low-risk high-reward currently. After reviewing the global stock indicies, the markets look like they could possibly have a Santa Claus rally here. Long-term I'm still a bear for the broad market, but I'm thinking the September October lows might be retested at some point, and if they do, I can see another bear market upside rally taking place after that. I would then be a buyer for a quick upside pop, but probably not a long-term holder. So far, the markets seem to be staying in the sell-off trading range they been in since September October. There's still plenty of uncertainty out there which the markets are currently showing. Nothing wrong with just holding cash. Its a good trade and investment especially in uncertain times like now.

Zacks Investment Research is maintaining an Outperform recommendation on shares of Cabot Oil & Gas, reflecting its impressive exposure to the high-return Marcellus and Eagle Ford Shale plays, as well as its above-average production growth. Furthermore, the capital infusion of over $200 million bodes well for Cabot, which will help it to bolster its natural gas operations. Buoyed by the growth momentum from the company s drilling efforts, particularly in its North region, Cabot recently reported robust third-quarter results. A relatively low risk profile and longer reserve lives are other positives in the Cabot story. Considering these factors, Zack's believes Cabot is well positioned going forward and consider it an attractive investment.

Company Profile

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation operates as an independent oil and gas company in the United States. The company engages in the development, exploitation, exploration, production, and marketing of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. It holds reserves in north region comprising Appalachian and Rocky Mountains areas; and south region consisting of Anadarko basin with Texas and Louisiana areas. The company also transports, stores, gathers, and purchases natural gas for resale. As of December 31, 2010, it had proved reserves of approximately 2,761 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Buy Long Cabot Oil and Gas - Ticker COG

Buy Entry: 71.70 to 75.76

Stop-Loss: 65.47

Take Profit Areas: 89.94 to 92.62, 94.76 to 97.62, 109.51 to 112.78, 137.48 to 141.56, 158.46 to 162.74

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Click the Cabot Oil and Gas stock chart below for a larger view.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Long-Term Markets Forecast Outlook


It’s that time of year again and I’m not talking about the holiday season… What I am talking about is another major market correction which has been starting to unfold over the past couple weeks.

I have a much different outlook on the markets than everyone else and likely you as well. However, before you stop reading what I have to say hear me out. My outlook and opinion is based strictly on price, volume, inter-market analysis, and crowd behavior and you should put some thought as to what I am saying into your current positions.

My fundamental thinking is also a contrarian one. I feel that gold and silver have risen because of obvious reasons being printing of money but also fears that fiat currenecies will become obsolete in the next 5 years.

The problem with that thinking is that most or all the bad news has come out with Europe and we know there are still major issues to resolve but the end of the world did not happen. Looking forward 5 years countries will have stopped acting like teenagers spending more money they they have on their credit cards and start creating budgets which they will abide by.

What does this mean? It means the global economy as a whole will be stronger than ever before. We may have a few bumps along the way but I feel countries and individuals will be better than ever 5 years from now

Two weeks ago I sent my big picture outlook to my subscribers, followers, and financial websites warning of a major pullback.

Since my warning we have seen the financial markets fall:

SP500 down 2.6%
Crude Oil down 4.4%
Gold down 9.6%
and Silver down 12.2%

If you applied any leverage to these then you could double or triple these returns through the use of leveraged exchange traded funds. The amount of followers cashing in on these pullbacks has been very exciting to hear. The exciting part about trading is the fact that moves like this happen all the time so if you missed this one, don’t worry because there is another opportunity just around the corner.

While my negative view on stocks and precious metals will rub the gold and silver bugs the wrong way, I just want to point out what is unfolding so everyone sees both sides of the trade. I also would like to mention that this analysis can, and likely will change on a weekly basis as the financial markets and global economy evolves over time. The point I am trying to get across is that I am not a “Gloom and Doom” kind of guy and I don’t always favor the down side. Rather, I am a technical trader simply providing my analysis and odds for what to expect next.

Let’s take a look at some charts and dig right in.

Dollar Index Daily Chart:


SP500 Futures Index Daily Chart:


Silver Futures Daily Chart:


Gold Futures Daily Chart:


Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart:



Click here for a profitable gold and silver trading method.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Angela Merkel Torpedoes the Euro


The Euro hit my year end target yesterday after a two cent plunge sent it down to the $1.29 handle. You can thank German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who in the strongest possible terms, said there was no way she would consent to an increase in the size of the European bailout package.

It didn’t help that in the Federal Reserve comments today they basically ran up the white flag and admitted that there is nothing left for them to do but keep interest rates at “exceptionally low levels” for the foreseeable future. They see moderate growth last pegged at 3%, which means they are about 1% higher than reality. We are left to wait until January 25 for the all-powerful government agency to take longer term measures to help the economy, such are targeting unemployment rates.

I have been happily trading in an out of the Euro from the short side since April, catching almost all of the move down from $1.50, except for the last three cents. There was clearly a lot of new shorts initiated today as the euro broke multi month support levels. To say this is a crowded trade would be a vast understatement, as these new positions are being added to existing ones that are at all-time highs. A recent survey revealed that 67% of all hedge funds are currently running short positions in the Euro.

This is a crummy place to get involved, as the beleaguered European currency is now severely oversold on a short term basis. I want to wait for a four cent rally against Uncle Buck to jump back in the game again. I would be surprised if we plumbed new lows from here, but then this has been a surprising year. Wait until Q1, 2012 before we see a $1.25 print.

It would be easy to sit back and be complacent, believing that this is not our problem. But it is. A recession that Europe’s new austerity is certain to bring, will likely chip 0.5% to 1.0% off of US GDP growth in 2012. Since we are likely growing at a modest 2% rate now, we don’t have a lot to give away. Looking at an American economy that is facing death by a thousand cuts, this is one giant slash.


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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The Euro Crisis and The UK Recovery


The euro crisis isn’t just affecting economic growth and the real estate industry in the U.K., but may also unleash another credit and mortgage crunch. If you are looking to purchase your first buy to let UK property or to expand an existing portfolio, and or have impaired credit, review best buy to let mortgages with the buy to let centre to achieve the best returns on your real estate investment and thus allowing you to be in the best position to build your portfolio in the future.

Spencer Dale, the Bank of England’s chief economist and member of its rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, pointed to the signs recently. U.K. banks haven’t been able to issue unsecured term debt for most of the second half of this year. That wasn’t a major problem for U.K. banks since they’ve done most of their funding. [They were] pre-funded for most of this year by the time those markets effectively closed.

Still, this may explain why the BOE opened Sterling 30-day credit lines for banks last week—an action unseen from the bank since the 2008 financial crisis. Indeed, Dale said that although there hasn’t been “significant” worsening of credit conditions for households and companies, the U.K. needs funding markets to re-open:

And unless they do relatively quickly, I think there’s a real risk that credit conditions in our economy could tighten further.

So, with the possibility of another credit crunch and a flat-lining economy, the BOE faces a dilemma: should it pump significantly more cash into the economy via quantitative easing to open the credit markets—and risk fanning inflation—or wait and see?

Until we get a better sense of underlying inflation pressures I think there will be a nervousness in terms of the extent to which one should keep on stimulating the economy, Dale said.

Inflation has come down to 4.8 percent, but it’s still more than double the BOE’s 2 percent target and has been above target for 52 of the past 60 months. The BOE is watching to see how quickly inflation slows before considering more stimulus because, as Dale said, the inflation dynamics are uncertain. Such a delay may push the consideration of more QE to after March of next year.

For all the uncertainty about inflation, growth and even QE, or maybe because of it, one thing is clear: the euro crisis may not only erode U.K. growth but could once again plunge its banks and the wider economy into another credit crisis—2008 all over again, without the U.S. subprime mortgages.

Click here to review more financial news resources.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

UK Home Price Forecast Cut


The outlook for Britain’s housing market has become more gloomy in recent months as economic growth falters and unemployment rises, according to Centre for Economics and Business Research, which lowered its price-growth forecasts.

Home values will rise 1.6 percent in 2012 after falling 1 percent this year, the London-based group said in an e-mailed statement today. The CEBR, which previously forecast that prices would increase 2.4 percent next year, cut its annual projections through 2015.

U.K. home sellers cut asking prices by the most in a year in November as the escalation of the euro-area debt crisis deterred buyers. While faltering growth and weakening consumer confidence will curb demand, prices will rise 15 percent through 2016 as values are supported by a shortage of homes for sale, according to the CEBR. With the lower UK real estate prices, you can now get the best mortgage deals available in today's market.

“The U.K. has a housing shortage,” CEBR Chief Executive Officer Douglas McWilliams said in the statement. “Both the shortage of supply and the growth in mortgage availability will push up house prices, but only slowly.”

Bank of England policy maker David Miles said this week that the housing market is undergoing an “extraordinary period of adjustment” as transactions decline and mortgage lending drops. Miles said that the ways in which home ownership is financed is changing as banks tighten loan conditions. Many of the changes “will be permanent,” he said, citing plans such as shared ownership, or so-called equity loans.

Cameron Plan

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said on Nov. 21 that his government will underwrite mortgages for as many as 100,000 new homes, introduce a 400 million-pound ($630 million) fund to reactivate stalled developments and release land for residential use. While the plan may boost values by as much as 2 percent in the first year of operation, its impact after three years will be “broadly neutral,” the CEBR said.

Property prices will climb 2.2 percent in 2013, 2.6 percent in 2014 and 3.2 percent in 2015, the CEBR said. That compares with August forecasts of 3.4 percent, 3.6 percent and 4 percent respectively. The group also sees values rising 4.3 percent in 2016, it said today.

Lombard Street Research said Nov. 22 risks to U.K. values “have shifted to the downside” because of the euro crisis, and that prices may decline for the next few quarters.

“A sharp reversal of prices is not likely, not least because of constraints on the supply-side; but the chance of rising prices by the end of 2012 has become slim,” they said.

U.K. consumer confidence fell to a record low in October as the unemployment outlook worsened and yields of Europe’s most indebted nations rose, heightening concern about the region’s ability to solve the debt turmoil. Data last week showed that the number of unemployed Britons rose to 2.62 million in the third quarter, the most since 1994.

“House building is forecast to grow only slowly over the next four years and consequently, with population growth and falling household size there is likely to be an increasing shortage of accommodation,” the CEBR said today. “This is likely to support rents and property values.”

Click here to review more financial news resources.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Brown-Forman Alcohol Santa Claus Rally


After reviewing the DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq indicies, it very possibly looks like a Santa Claus rally could happen this week. I'm still skeptical on a longer-term upside rebound in the markets but short-term its looking more doable currently. If taking any new positions long or short as always use stop-loss in case the market goes against your position.

According to Zacks Investment Research, Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B) reported a record fiscal 2012 second-quarter result, as it is first time in the company’s history that it crossed the $1 billion sales mark.

The company’s reported earnings of $1.09 per share came in line with Zacks Consensus Estimate and grew 3.8% from the year-ago earnings of $1.05.The robust increase in quarterly earnings was primarily driven by strong top-line growth and volume gains.

During the quarter earnings per share grew 8% after excluding the net effect of Hopland-based wine business.

Quarterly Details

Brown-Forman's net sales recorded a growth of 11.9% to $1,013.7 million from $905.7 million in the prior-year quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to solid performance in Germany, Turkey, France, the U.K., Russia, Canada, Australia and Brazil, which was more than offset by declines in Poland and Spain. Total Revenue beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $966 million.

During the quarter, Brown-Forman's gross profit grew 9.4% from the prior-year quarter to $501.9 million primarily driven by increased volumes. However, gross margin contracted 120 basis points (bps) year over year to 49.5% due to increased input and excise costs.

During the quarter, the company made huge advertising expenses in order to support several brand innovation launches. Advertising expenses increased 14.1% year over year to $106.7 million. Selling, general and administrative expenses surged 10.5% year over year to $146.8 million due to increased salary and related expenses. Conversely, Brown-Forman's operating profit grew 4.8% from the prior-year quarter to $246.3 million, while operating margin contracted 160 basis points to 24.3% from the prior-year period.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Brown-Forman ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $380.1 million and long-term debt of $504.2 million.

During the first six months of fiscal 2012, Brown-Forman generated $155.5 million of cash from operations and deployed $92.4 million for dividend payout, and $18.8 million on capital expenditures. On November 30, 2011, Brown-Forman’s $250 million share repurchase program expired. During the program period, the company repurchased a total of 3.4 million shares for $234 million, at an average price of $69.39 per share.

Dividend

During the quarter, Brown-Forman paid a regular quarterly cash dividend of 35 cents a share on Class A and Class B common stock, an increase of 9.4% over the prior dividend. This is the company’s 28th consecutive year of dividend growth.

Guidance and Zacks Consensus

Moving forward, Brown-Forman expects strong improvement in customer trends in the remaining period of fiscal 2012. However, it also anticipates that the stronger U.S. dollar value may have an adverse impact on its bottom-line. Accordingly, the company has lowered its upper end of earnings guidance. Currently, Brown-Forman expects fiscal 2012 earnings in the range of $3.45 to $3.70 per share instead of $3.45 to $3.85. Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate stood at $3.63 per share.

Buy Long Brown-Forman - Ticker BF.B - Short-Term Momentum Trade

Buy Entry: 77.45 - 81.50

Stop-Loss: 73.31

Take Profit Areas: 82.65 - 83.09, 87.47 - 87.91

Company Profile

Brown-Forman Corporation engages in manufacturing, bottling, importing, exporting, and marketing alcoholic beverages. The company offers its products primarily under the brand names of Jack Daniel’s, Gentleman Jack, Southern Comfort, Finlandia, Antiguo Tequila, Canadian Mist, Chambord, Don Eduardo, Early Times, el Jimador, Herradura, Korbel California, New Mix Ready-to-Drinks, Old Forester, Pepe Lopez Tequilas, Sonoma-Cutrer, Tuaca, and Woodford Reserve. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and state governments. The company markets its products primarily in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Poland, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Spain, Turkey, South Africa, Russia, Italy, and China. Brown-Forman Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

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Click the Brown-Forman stock chart below for a larger view.

Thursday, December 08, 2011

Accelerating Your Forex Trading Profits


What if it were IMPOSSIBLE TO LOSE once your Forex trade hits a precise goal?

This unusual "trick" reveals how in Video #3 of the new Forex Profit Accelerator training series, called:

* "How To Trade Forex 'For F.R.E.E'"

Click Here to Watch It:

BIG NEWS <-- Forex Profit Accelerator RELEASE DATE . . .

35+ year trading expert Bill Poulos just announced that he's going to be releasing his step-by-step trading program - the Forex Profit Accelerator - which includes his brand new custom, intelligent Trade Alert Software, on:

* THURSDAY, December 15th, at 1pm Eastern (New York time).

Be sure to watch all of the Video for more details.

This is going to be exciting!

After you watch video #3 please post a comment if you like what you see.

All 3 of Bill's training videos will only be available online for a short time, so if you're trying to figure out safe, predictable, and fast way to add on Forex as a potential income stream (in 5 minutes or less per day), please make sure you watch them before they come offline.

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Gold Trading System Reviewed


That’s a pretty bold statement.

But that’s exactly what Mike Ser and Andy Man are saying.

If you start a 90-day trial of their Part-Time Gold Trader and it doesn’t make you money in the next 90 days, just say the word and you’ll get 100% of your membership dues refunded to you.

You will get the full program for three months (the training, the coaching, the trades themselves) for FREE if you decide it’s not right for you.

PLUS if you start your trial in the next 24 hours, you can lock in an easy, four-payment plan.

You have to act fast. Click here to jump on this now.

If you’re on the fence, just consider what this means.

You’ve got THREE FULL MONTHS to make them PROVE TO YOU that they can make you a better, more successful trader.

Just paper trade his service… the worst case scenario if you decide it’s not for you is that you got three months of coaching, mentoring and training AND you got to trade alongside a self-made millionaire trader for free.

You don’t have to take their word that their strategies will work for you. You’re able to see the reality for yourself.

Take a 90-day risk-free trial and trade alongside Andy for yourself. Just to be safe, I recommend starting with paper trading. That way you can…

Prove to yourself that his trades are still making money in this market.

Prove to yourself that you can actually do what he’s doing. You can see how easy it is to follow his specific buy and sell instructions, and see how simple and effective his risk management strategies are.

Prove to yourself that his systems and strategies really do make you a more successful trader.

Let them prove that they can coach, mentor and transform you into an expert trend follower. Andy’s trend following success has been remarkable. Go ahead and do what he does and see how much better of a trader you become BEFORE making your final decision about the joining the service.

Click here to get all the details on your 90-day trial.

Let Mike and Andy turn you into an expert gold and silver trader.

Mike says Andy has completely demystified the drivers of volatility in gold and silver, and that’s why he is able to cash in on trends that seem to turn on a dime. They want to prove it to you in your trial period.

They’ll show you the EIGHT trend-triggers Andy uses to know when gold or silver is about to break out of a trading range, or change trend direction.

Some trigger short term uptrends, some trigger short term downtrends. Armed with this information, your confidence in trading gold and silver will skyrocket because you won’t be surprised when the market jumps or drops.

Let them hold your hand and show you how to use leverage intelligently without taking on excessive risk. Every trader knows leverage is a double-edged sword. It offers huge rewards, but can have huge risks. Andy seems to be managing his risk remarkably well, why not see if you can do the same with his guidance?

In short, get all of Andy’s trading secrets during your 90-day trial period.

Click here to get all the details on your 90-day trial.

I think this is as simple and straightforward a decision as you’ll ever get as a trader. Get mentored by and trade alongside a trader who became a millionaire starting from scratch in today’s market.

AND do it for 90 days before making a decision on whether or not this is the right service for you. Remember, if at any time during those 90 days you decide it’s not for you, you can just say the word and they’ll give you a 100% refund of every penny you invested to try it.

If you are at all interested, just go ahead and pull the trigger.

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Click here to review more gold and precious metals resources.

Monday, December 05, 2011

Market Mastery Profitable Stock Picking


I don't have a low-risk high-reward stock pick long or short this week as I just don't see the potential risk for reward great enough. I'm still looking for the major indicies to re-test the September October lows. I would consider investing in mortgages with bad credit than take any new positions in the stock market right now. In the meantime I have some free stock trading videos for you to review here that can you can potentially profit from.

As you probably know, there are over 7,000 stocks to choose from on just the U.S. exchanges alone.

But what you might NOT know is that about 97% of these stocks are PURE POISON for your portfolio, meaning that the odds are stacked AGAINST you before you even place a trade.

Recently, one of the most respected trading experts in our community discovered a way to automatically FILTER OUT the 'poison' stocks and leave you with:

* The Top 3% that offer the most profit potential every time you trade.

These are the safest, most predictable stocks that give you the best odds, and if you're NOT trading stocks in the Top 3%, you could be unknowingly KILLING your portfolio.

This trading expert recorded a series of brand new training videos that reveal his discovery, and show you how to filter out the poison stocks yourself.

The first video is ready to watch here:

After you watch it, please leave a comment below the video and let the community know what you think.

I think we're on to something big here.

With this discovery, you have the potential to BEAT the S&P500 by 5,420% or MORE. I know, it sounds weird, but it'll make sense after you watch the video.

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Friday, December 02, 2011

Stocks Lower and Dollar Higher Continuing?


The US Dollar rose to multi month highs. This comes as we see sharp losses in the Dow Jones and the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Dollar Index broke through the psychologically significant resistance at 10,000. It is currently boasting its strongest 20 day appreciation since the height of the financial crisis in 2008.

Today will feature US Nonfarm Payrolls which is foreseeable event risk for the world’s largest economy. However, traders should be aware of any surprises out of the upcoming European finance ministers meetings. Euro Zone tensions hit a new high this last week as a surprising failed German bond auction caused sell-offs in Spanish and Italian bonds. Italy paid a very high and deeply concerning 7.81 percent for 2-year bonds in its most recent auction. This was up substantially from the 4.63 percent they saw last month. Another Euro zone problem came when Standard and Poor’s downgraded Belgium’s sovereign credit rating for the first time since 1997. This was enough to push the US Dollar to significant highs, but the focus on Europe ignores key fundamental risks in the US economy.

Looking back across the pond, US Treasury Bonds rallied last week. This came in despite of news that the so called Super Committee has failed to agree upon fresh budget cuts ahead of its deadline. The lack of action from the group further underlines the political tensions and the unwillingness to get along in the current government. This might end up being a growing credit risk for the US Treasury. Still, global investors continue to flock to the relative safety of Treasury debt. However, further credit downgrades or improvement in Euro zone fiscal crises might push traders away from US debt. This might put the dollar at risk.

The next moves in Europe and as well as which way the financial market goes will be critical to Forex price action. This will come as the Buck might continue to rise as investors rush in as a flight to safety. Right now, 10-year US Treasury yields trade near record lows. That means that prices are near record highs.

Coming up, US economic data will be important.

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Thursday, December 01, 2011

The Currency War Begins


I think you will admit that we are in the middle of one major crazy financial mess. The part that makes things really crazy is that it’s not just in the United States anymore but rather serious global problem which if not handled properly could change the way we live our lives going forward or possibly even spark some type of war, hopefully things don’t get that crazy… But I do know one thing. Fear is the most powerful force on the planet and people do some crazy things when they are backed into a corner.

Anyways, on a more positive tone… today China decided to help provide more liquidity for the financial system along with the central banks. This news triggered a monster rally in overnight trading making the market gap up sharply at the opening bell. This news did hit the US dollar index hard sending it sharply lower but the question remains “Will today’s news be a one week hiccup in the market?” If Euroland starts printing money it will likely send the dollar higher and stocks lower for 6- 12 months.

Just today I was joking with Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survivor Network about how each country should just give each other country a second chance. Wipe the dept clean and start over knowing this time around exactly how each country truly operates at a financial level allowing everyone to avoid a repeat of this BS. Some countries will get off way better than others because they would get so much dept wiped clean but isn’t it better than years of problems and possibly wars over food, gold, guns, oil and Canadian water? – EH

All joking aside, let’s take a look at the weekly long term charts . . . Dollar Index Showing Possible Massive Rally If Euro Starts Printing Money:

I’m sure my off the cuff options/thoughts will cause a stir but I am fine with that. Everyone I talk to is thinking the dollar is about to fall off a cliff while I think it’s very possible that it does just the opposite. Either way I will be looking to benefit from which ever move unfolds.


Weekly Gold Chart:


Weekly Silver Chart:


Weekly SP500 Chart:


Long Term Thoughts:

I would first like to say that tonight’s report is out of my norm. Generally I do not focus on the big picture negative stuff and I like to avoid it for a few reasons… One, it’s just downright depressing to talk and think about. And Second I don’t want to be labelled as one of those “The Sky Is Falling” kinds of guys.

So, that being said I think these charts above show a situation what is very possible to happen in the coming 6-12 months. Keep in mind that my focus is on short term time frames as it allows me to avoid and actually profit from major market moves while providing enough information for my followers to learn technical analysis and trade management. And the obvious idea of not looking too far into the future with a negative outlook…

With headline risk changing the market direction on a weekly basis, this negative outlook could easily change in a couple months. I will recap on the big picture as things unfold in January/February.

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Monday, November 28, 2011

2007-2008 Market Crash All Over Again?


I don't have a buy or sell stock pick this week, but to say, if and when I see the SP500 taking out the October 03 low of 1099.23. I would be a buyer one tick or more below this major support level for another bounce back up into major resistance at the 1200 to 1250 area. In the meantime, I have some further analysis below on the SP500 and Gold.

Is This December Similar to 2007 & 2008 for Gold & Stocks?

Thus far in 2011 the overall stock market movement has been much different from what we had in 2010. This year we have seen nothing but sideways to lower prices with wild price swings on a day to day basis. There just has not been any really solid trends to take advantage of this year. Instead we had to actively trade the oversold dips and sell into the overbought rallies to just pull money out of the market on a monthly basis. Last year we saw 3 major rallies that lasted several months making it easy for anyone who bought into the trend to make money if managed properly.

Looking forward to 2012 it looks as though we are going to see some major changes unfold globally that will change the way we do things live our lives. Unfortunately its a very negative outlook but I do have hope that something will be done to perserve are somewhat normal lifestyles. I’m not one to talk doom and gloom, there are enough of those guys out there already so lets stick with the charts and focus on what is unfolding now in the present and how to take advantage of it…

The charts below show what I feel is likely to happen going into the new year IF we don’t get any major headline news in Europe that triggers another selloff.
Intermarket Analysis:

There are a lot of different things unfolding within stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds right now. And it is imporatnt to know that investments are inter-connected in some way. For example, if one investment moves sharply in one direction it will have an effect on other investment classes.

My eye is focused on the US Dollar Index which has recently had a strong run up in price. For the past couple years we have seen stocks fall when the dollar moves up. So with the dollar index now trading at a key resistance level we should see the dollar top out for a few weeks and spark a Christmas rally into year end. After that, all bets are off and we re-analyze…

On the flop side of things, if Europe comes out with major negative headline news we could see the dollar index continue its rally and breakthrough this resistance level. If the dollar moves higher from here we could easily see a multi month run up in the dollar. You do not want to be long stocks if this happens, get short stocks and hold on tight.


Gold Daily Chart Analysis:

Here is my positive out look for gold and what I feel is likely to unfold near term. But keep in mind what I just said about the US dollar index above. If the dollar continues its rally and breaks out it could actually put some pressure on gold. I know gold is a safe haven so I do expect it to hold up, but a strong dollar will neutralize a lot of the buying in gold in my opinion.


SP500 Daily Charts:

Stocks should have a solid bounce this December if the dollar finds resistance and pulls back in the coming weeks. I am expecting a bounce of 5-10% if all goes as planned.


Christmas Holiday Rally Trading Conclusion:

In short, we are entering a tough time to trade the market. Volatility is low, there are a few holidays and typically we see volume thin out as December unfolds. Light volume generally favors higher prices for stocks and commodities which is one of the reasons we get the holiday lift in prices.

The recent selloff in stocks is looking overdone to the down side and ready to bounce any day. So I am looking for signals to get long the SP500. Overall risk remains very high as sellers are still in control of the market and because we are looking to put on a trade against the intermediate trend which is down.

On Friday morning myself and my followers exited our short position on the SP500 at the open locking in 13.5% profit. We exited the position because the intraday charts are showing signs of a potential bottom and we want to avoid the tear your face off short covering rally that I feel is just around the corner. Now we are waiting for a another low risk setup and will take action to go long or short depending how things unfold in Europe.

By Chris Vermeulen Gold and Oil Forecasts

Thursday, November 24, 2011

How to Trade During the Holiday Season


Happy Thanksgiving! We are forever grateful to you our readers, for everything we have now and what's to come in our future. We are especially grateful to the men and women in military duty protecting the freedoms and liberty of all people around the world.

The months of November and December are the second strongest back to back months for the financial markets. Many traders and investors use this time of the year to reap big gains as they close the year out. The fact that most traders and investors are sitting in cash and underweight stocks in their portfolio’s leaves me to believe a Santa Clause rally is just around the corner. Reason being is everyone has cash on hand to buy stocks because they are selling their positions in this pullback we are in right now. I know traders well enough, they will buy back into the market trying to catch the holiday rally in the coming weeks.

Subscribers and myself have been short the SP500 for a couple weeks after watching the broad market become overbought and sentiment levels became overly bullish with greedy pigs thinking they could buy stocks after a massive month long rally that had not pullback. Once the selling started you would either get you head handed to you or you were going to make a killing buying leveraged inverse ETFs.

Those who arrived late to the rally are the ones selling out of their positions this week. The interesting thing about this week’s market condition is that I have not seeing any real panic selling in stocks, and I’m not seeing the volatility index spike in value yet.

What does this mean? Well it means we could actually see another big dip in the market which should last 1-2 days and then we get a sharp reversal to the upside.

Take a look at the SP500 & Volatility index below:

This chart allows us to get a feel for fear in the market. Me being a contrarian trader, I focus on market sentiment extremes. When the masses are losing money hand over fist I’m generally on the other side of that trade with open arms. Trading off fear is one of the easiest ways to trade the market. That is because fear is much more powerful than greed and it shows up better on the charts. Spotting panic selloff bottoms is something that can be traded successfully if you know what to look for and how to trade them.

On the chart you can see the pullbacks in the SP500 which triggered a panic selling spike in my green indicator. What I look for is a pullback in the SP500 and for my panic selling indicator to spike over 20. When that happens I start watching the volatility index for a spike also. The good news is that the volatility index typically rises the following day making my panic indicator more of a leading one.


I could write a 20 page report with cheap ink going into depth this with topic, but that’s not the point of this report. Just realize that the stock market is likely going to put in a bottom very soon and likely end with a STRONG panic selling washout this week or next. If you want to learn more about how to trade market sentiment and panic selling you can read my strategy which was published in Futures Magazine.

Prepare for a sharp drop in the market which should kick start a holiday rally in the next few trading sessions.

Also consider trading precious metals and the forex pairs as they will be moving big if and when stocks take a big upside reversal.

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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Precious Metals Forecast Outlook


Over the recent couple months the precious metals charts have made some sizable moves. Most investors and traders were caught off guard by the sharp avalanche type selloff and lost a lot of hard earned capital in just a few trading sessions. Gold dropped over 20% and silver a whopping 40%.

The crazy thing about all this is that these types of moves in precious metals can be avoided and even taken advantage of in certain situations. There is no reason for anyone to continue holding on to those positions after they pullback 6% of more because of the type of price and volume action both gold and silver had been displaying in the past few sessions.

I warned investors on Aug 31st that precious metals were about to top any day and that protective stops should be tightened or taking profits was also a smart move. It was only 2 trading sessions later that precious metals topped and went into a free fall. You can get my detailed analysis if you read my report “Dollar’s On the Verge of a Relief Rally Look Out!”.

A couple weeks later once precious metals has found support and the uneducated investor’s were licking their wounds wondering what the heck just happened to their trading accounts… I put out another report but this time with a bullish outlook. Silver was currently trading at $29.96 and I had a $35-$36 price target over the next two months. Gold was trading down at $1611 and I saw it heading back up to $1750-$1775 area before finding resistance and pulling back. I considered using a financial translation agency to help me convert the statistics but decided to tackle this issue myself. Both these forecasts were reached over the next two months. You can quickly review the report called “Precious Metals Charts Point to higher Prices” for more info.

With all that said, what exactly are the charts saying right now?

Current Precious Metals Charts Summary:

The past 6 weeks we have been watching both gold and silver struggle to hold up but they have managed to grind their way to my price targets. After reaching those targets a couple weeks ago sellers have stepped back into the precious metals market and put pressure these metals.

Last week gold and silver started to pullback in a big way with rising volume. This could just be the start of something much larger which I will cover in just a moment.

The wild card for precious metals and for every stock and commodity for that matter is Europe. Every other day there seems to be headline news moving the market and most of takes place in overnight trading for those of us living in North America. It’s this wild card which is keeping me from getting aggressive in the market right now.

Let’s take a look at the charts.

Silver Precious Metals Chart:

Silver is currently in a down trend and may be starting another leg down this week. Long term I am bullish but for the next couple months I am remain neutral to bearish for silver until it forms a base to start a new uptrend from.


Gold Precious Metals Chart:

Currently I am neutral/bearish on gold. If it can trade sideways for a few weeks then I will become bullish.


Precious Metals Charts Conclusion:

In short, I feel there is a good chance the US dollar will continue higher and if that happens we should see strong selling in North American equities, commodities and likely on the precious metals charts.

Financial markets around the world are at a tipping point meaning something really big is about to take place. The question is which way will investment move. The only thing we can do is trade with the current trends, price patterns and volume.

At this time I still see a higher dollar and that means lower stocks and commodities. This could change at the drop of a hat depending on the news that comes out of Europe so the key to trading right now is to remain cash rich and taking only small positions in the market.

If you would like learn more about etf trading and receive my daily pre-market videos, intraday updates and detailed trade alerts which even the most novice trader can follow then click here to join my free trading education newsletter and my premium trading alert service.

By Chris Vermeulen

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Monday, November 21, 2011

Short-Sell Recommendation on Autodesk ADSK


I've got a low-risk high-reward sell-short stock pick on Autodesk software this week. I see the major market indicies topping out here near term with a retest of the September October lows.

According to Zacks Investment Research, Autodesk Inc Nasdaq ADSK reported third quarter 2012 earnings of 36 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 cents. Earnings per share, including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges increased 33.3% year over year, driven by continued growth in revenues across geographies and business segments.

Revenue

Revenues increased 15.1% year over year to $548.6 million in the reported quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $544.0 million. Revenues were also at the higher end of management’s guided range of $535.0 million to $550.0 million.

The year-over-year growth in revenues was driven by higher license and other revenues, which increased 17.5% year over year to $331.4 million. Maintenance revenues rose 11.6% year over year to $217.2 million in the quarter. Additionally, the revenues for the quarter were boosted by 36.0% increase on a year-over-year basis in the Suites revenue and an increase in the platform solutions and emerging business segments.

On a segmental basis, Platform Solutions and Emerging Business revenues jumped 21.0% year over year to $210.0 million in the reported quarter.

Revenues from the Architecture, Engineering and Construction business segment were $152.0 million, up 12.0% year over year, while Manufacturing revenues increased 14.0% year over year to $134.0 million in the quarter. Revenues from the Media and Entertainment business rose 6.0% year over year to $53.0 million in the quarter.

Autodesk posted significant upside in all of its geographical regions on the back of continued adoption of its products. Revenues in America jumped 12.0% year over year to $200.0 million.

International businesses continued its strong performance during the quarter. EMEA revenues climbed 10.0% year over year to $202.0 million. Asia-Pacific revenues escalated 28.0% year over year to $146.0 million.

Revenues from emerging economies (16.0% of the total revenue) climbed 15.0% year over year to $87.0 million.

Operational Performance

Gross profit (including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges) was $500.1 million, up 14.5% year over year. However, gross margin decreased 40 basis points (bps) from the year-ago quarter to 91.2%.

Operating expenses (including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges) increased 10.6% year over year to $390.6 million, primarily attributable to higher marketing & sales expenses (up 11.4% year over year) and research & development expenses (up 15.0% year over year) which fully offset a 4.8% year-over-year decline in the general and administrative expenses. However, operating expenses, as a percentage of revenue, contracted 290 bps to 71.2% in the quarter.

Operating income (including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges) of $109.5 million was up 31.5% year over year. Operating margin came in at 20.0% in the quarter, up 250 bps year over year, attributable to strong revenue growth and cost controls in the quarter.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

Autodesk’s balance sheet remains strong with no debt. The company exited the third quarter of 2012 with total cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 billion, compared with $1.37 billion in the previous quarter. The decrease was due to the closing of 10 strategic acquisitions during the quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $138.0 million compared with $132.4 million in the prior quarter.

Outlook

For fourth quarter 2012, Autodesk expects revenues in the range of $575.0 million to $590.0 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $581.0 million.

GAAP EPS is expected in the range of 26 cents to 29 cents. Non-GAAP EPS is expected in the 42 cents to 45 cents range. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at 34 cents per share, which is evidently below the guided range.

For fiscal 2012, Autodesk expects revenues in the range of $2.20 billion to $2.21 billion. GAAP EPS is expected in the range of $1.17 to $1.20 and non-GAAP EPS is expected in the range of $1.70 to $1.73. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.39. Autodesk expects non-GAAP operating margin to improve between 210 and 240 basis points in fiscal 2012.

Additionally, the company provided a sneak peak into their fiscal 2013. For fiscal 2013, Autodesk expects revenues to increase 10.0% on a year-over-year basis, with about 150 basis points increase in the GAAP operating margin and roughly 200 basis points increase in non-GAAP operating margin, over the fiscal 2012 figures.

Recommendation

In our view, Autodesk’s expanding product portfolio and broadening industry and geographic reach will help it sustain its longer-term growth strategy of providing high-volume, lower-cost CAD software. We believe this will likely drive earnings going forward.

Moreover, the acquisitions that are being made in the field of CAD and gaming middleware sections will provide the company with long-term opportunities, particularly in the web-based communities that will likely boost the company’s cloud offerings going forward.

However, foreign exchange fluctuations and increasing exposure in Europe and competition from Adobe Systems Inc. ADBE, Parametric Technology Corp. PMTC are the headwinds. Additionally, there is a risk of customer concentration as an estimated 30% of the Autodesk’s business comes from 1% of the customers.

We have a Neutral recommendation on Autodesk’s shares in the long term. Currently, Autodesk has a Zacks #4 Rank, which translates into a short-term (1-3 months) ‘Sell’ rating.

Sell Short Autodesk – Ticker ADSK

Sell Entry: 36.86 to 32.91

Stop-Loss: 39.80

Take Profit Areas: 21.40 to 20.47, 14.42 to 13.73

Company Profile

Autodesk, Inc. provides design software and service solutions to customers in architecture, engineering, and construction; manufacturing; and digital media and entertainment industries. It operates in four segments: Platform Solutions and Emerging Business (PSEB); Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC); Manufacturing (MFG); and Media and Entertainment (M&E). The PSEB segment offers AutoCAD, a computer-aided design application for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; and AutoCAD LT, a software for professional drafting and detailing. The AEC segment provides Autodesk Revit products that collect information about a building project and allow this information to be coordinated across other representations of the project; AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering; AutoCAD Architecture that built on the AutoCAD platform for architects; and AutoCAD Map 3D, which provides direct access to data needed for infrastructure planning, design, and management activities. The MFG segment offers Autodesk Inventor, which provides a set of tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation to manufacturers; AutoCAD Mechanical, a software to accelerate the mechanical design process; and Autodesk Moldflow, an injection molding simulation software, as well as a range of services, including consulting, support, and training. The M&E segment provides Autodesk 3ds Max, which offers 3D modeling, animation, and rendering solutions for game developers, design visualization professionals, and visual effects artists; Autodesk Maya, a solution for film and video artists, game developers, and design visualization professionals; and creative finishing solutions. It licenses and sells its products and services directly, as well as through distributors and resellers worldwide. Autodesk, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

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Click the Autodesk stock chart below for a larger view.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Millionaire Trader Mindset in Action


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It’s not often you get a chance to be coached by and trade alongside a self-made millionaire trader (who made his money trading, NOT collecting big salaries and fees like so many on Wall Street).

It’s also just as rare to get the chance to be coached by a turnaround trading coach who’s trained a self-made millionaire trader.

Today, you’re getting the opportunity to get both risk-free for 90 days.

Could you do what Andy did?

Could you turn $1,600 into $1.4 million in 5 months?

Or could you pay yourself $329,260 from your trading account and still have over $1 million to trade?

Mike Ser answered that question pretty honestly: He doesn’t know.

He (correctly) says:

“The reality is anyone who tells you they can guarantee you’ll make money, get rich or whatever by using their system is flat out lying to you.

A lot of people (like Andy) have gotten rich by following trends, but a lot of traders have also gone broke trading trends and just about every other trading strategy out there. We can help you but, ultimately, your failure or success ultimately rests in your own hands.”

I appreciate his honesty. We don’t get enough of that in the online trading community these days.

What I like even better is that they’ve set it up so you can actually try the service out for 90 days—a FULL THREE MONTHS—before making a final decision on whether it’s right for you.

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Thursday, November 17, 2011

8 Session Bear Market Trading Online Webinar


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In an intimate online classroom setting, Wayne and Jeffrey walk you through carefully selected lessons and hands-on exercises that will give you the understanding and confidence you need to begin applying these techniques in your own trading.

Your education goes at a steady yet relaxed pace, plus it continues even after you've completed the online coursework. Your trading mentors Wayne and Jeffrey are available to clarify a critical lesson or answer that forgotten question that popped up while doing your homework – or even weeks after you've completed the program.

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Elliott Wave Trading Fundamentals

Risk/Reward Assessment

Discipline Guidelines

Psychology of Trading and the Markets

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Entry and Exit Strategies

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Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Trading Gold for Maximum Profits


AND be coached by the trader who taught him.

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Monday, November 14, 2011

Is Now the Time for a Deflationary Depression?


I don't have a buy or sell stock pick this week again. SP500 and the major indicies are hitting major resistance now. I see a trading range for stocks for awhile, then I see the September lows being tested again. Instead I have some important information below on a very possible deflationary depression coming. For now I recommend staying in cash, selling short depending on each stock by stock situation, and or trading the forex or commodities markets for some price moves this week.

Social psychology precipitates economic depressions.

Don't blame Martin Van Buren for America's first deflationary depression. Social mood rode higher in the saddle than did our 8th President, who only stood 5' 6".

Elected in 1836, by the time Van Buren assumed office in March 1837 a speculative bubble had burst and a banking crisis was at hand (sound familiar?) -- the national mood had turned south and the "Panic of 1837" followed. Van Buren was known as "The Little Magician," but he could not pull an economic recovery out of the hat. He met defeat seeking a second term.

America's first deflationary depression lasted until 1842. Van Buren blamed over-zealous business practices and a credit bubble (sound familiar 2x?). The panic precipitated bank failures; many speculators who bought land to capitalize on railroad expansion lost everything. The depression worsened as Van Buren continued Andrew Jackson's economic policies. Businesses failed and unemployment was widespread. There were even "food riots" in several cities.

Author's note: Because of substantial revenue inflows into the Treasury during the boom of the early 1830s, the United States government became debt free in 1835. Ironically, this was the very year the depression began. Stock prices fell sharply despite the federal government paying off all of its debt. Conventional wisdom would have us believe reducing the national debt, or paying it off entirely, would lift stock prices. It didn't happen in 1835, so there must be something else at work. That "something else" is social mood.

The 1837-1842 deflationary depression comprised Supercycle Wave II, the end of which saw the beginning of the biggest economic expansion in history -- Supercycle wave III! The 1929-1933 Great Depression still grabs more attention, but in fact the earlier Supercycle Wave II decline set the stage for the United States becoming the greatest economic and military power the world has ever known.

President Herbert Hoover held office during the 1929 Crash and onset of the Great Depression, a.k.a. Supercycle Wave IV. Yet no U.S. President has thus far been at the helm during a Grand Supercycle market decline. The last decline of that degree had its origin in the South Sea Bubble in 1720, when Great Britain's King George I was on the throne. The rampant speculation of the time spread beyond the financial class, such that porters and ladies' maids had enough money to buy their own carriages. Members of the clergy took part in the mania. Poof! Life savings were wiped out. England's Postmaster General committed suicide. Hundreds of members of Parliament lost money. As for the directors of the South Sea Company itself, they were forced to give up their property and arrested to boot.

Martin Van Buren led the nation during our country's first Supercycle depression -- as President he was powerless to stop it. Who will occupy the Oval Office when the next Grand Supercycle depression develops? This we believe: That individual will be powerless to prevent it. He or she will only be a President.

What is more powerful than a President of the United States? The answer is "social mood." How is this powerful force shaping the economy?

Discover the answer in the 90-page Free Report called the Deflation Survival Guide.

Now is the time to prepare for a deflationary depression. Start by reading the 90-page free eBook, Deflation Survival Guide, which includes Robert Prechter's most important analysis and forecasts regarding deflation. This guide will help you survive a major deflationary trend, and even equip you to prosper.

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