Monday, January 31, 2011
Egypt Unrest Revolution
First, I have to address the Egypt crisis. The Europe and USA stock markets took a hit last Friday on the unrest and or possible revolution going on in Egypt currently. Asia for the most part this early Monday morning is under pressure as Europe is now opening. It’s too early to make concrete decisions on how this situation will play out. My bet is that Hosni Mubarak leaves, an interim government is installed, with elections sometime this year . . . hopefully.
Learn from History
In 1986 when the Philippines was under-going unrest and the subsequent revolution to remove Ferdinand Marcos from power, President Reagan told Marcos it’s time to leave, and once Marcos made his choice, helped him vacate the Philippines to Hawaii before the angry mob put him on trial and or killed him. I suggest President Obama review this past history of the Philippines, and be on the side of history this time with how he and the rest of the world’s leaders deal with Mubarak. The Egyptian people have spoken loud and clear.
Short Selling China
It’s Monday, and I’m posting a new weekly stock pick this week with a sell short position on a big Chinese digital media company named Focus Media. You could regard this short sale as a possible buying opportunity at lower prices because long-term, I think this and most China stocks are all mostly going up.
Chinese New Year February 03, 2011
The Chinese New Year of the Rabbit starts on February 03, 2011. The Rabbit Year is said to be fortunate. Almost everything will come more easily in 2011. The year of the Metal Rabbit promises to bring peace, joy, calmness and many happy moments. Lets hope so.
The Chinese Economy
In the meantime, China monetary officials have been in the markets for many years now, taking steps to slow down and cool their red hot economy. I do not usually recommended shorting China stocks, but I think there may be a continued China slow-down somewhat lending to the good chance that this short sale will work out. If it doesn’t, implement your mental stop-loss, and or go long the stock in case of an upside breakout.
Jim Chanos Short Selling China
Legendary short seller hedge fund manager Jim Chanos started calling for a China crash of some kind in late 2009, early 2010. I don’t totally agree with him, but I do take into consideration what he has to say, and I don’t discount anything that has the potential for great unforeseen risk. Chanos may be right, and I don’t want to get caught holding the bag, and be ready and nimble to take advantage and benefit from the situation if Chanos is right.
What’s Real and What’s Not?
Chanos has warned that China’s mega-stimulated economy is headed for a crash instead of a sustained boom that many predict. I’m a China bull as much as anyone, but there are some disturbing things going on there we may never really know the truth about only until after they have happened. Like the fact that the Chinese banks are heavily invested in the stock market with money from the government, all the while China monetary officials are making their banks raise their reserve capital requirements is one major concern of mine. Also it’s exploding metropolitan real estate prices that Chanos says is “Dubai times 1,000 or worse”. Chanos has suggested that Beijing is possibly cooking the books on their huge growth rates of more than 8 percent. I don’t know about that. The only way to know for sure is to take a trip to China, and tour around and or live there awhile. After your trip, I don’t think you’ll be thinking they were lying about their past growth rates.
Real China Risk Fear
Chanos does have valid points to raise on the China risk fears. “Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.” I totally agree with that statement which makes me pause and think. Look what the credit excesses of years and decades past did to the USA and Europe in 2007, and 2008. If China does have credit excesses as Chanos is suggesting, then buyer beware.
China Stocks PE Ratios
If you’ve even looked at and analyzed the China stock valuations, and also compared them to their Hong Kong market counterparts, you might think its late 1999 in the USA during the high-tech bubble blow-off. PE ratio valuations are big double digit, and a lot, triple digit in China. The same respective China share’s traded on the Hong Kong exchange are at more realistic PE ratio values. Why the big difference you might say?
News You Can Use and Bank On
Do the Chinese investor and traders know something which others who don’t live there know? Possibly? If so, what? I ask those questions everytime I analyze the China stocks. Why is the PE ratio of this China stock at 99 or even 199? And how long will that last in case I go long on it and then everything changes, and Chanos ends up possibly being right, and I can’t get my mental stop-loss order in before I’ve lost a significant amount of my capital?
Focus Media's Basic Fundamental Valuation
Focus Media’s current PE ratio is about 45, and the total capitalization is $3.5 billion. I would be a buyer if the PE ratio was half of what it is now, but it may not get there. We will have to wait while we speculate.
Sell Short Focus Media Holding – Ticker FMCN
Sell Entry: 24.91 to 23.93
Take Profit Areas: 20.90 to 20.43, 19.96 to 19.50, 16.87 to 16.46, 13.02 to 12.73
Focus Media Holding China Company Profile
Focus Media Holding Limited, a multi- platform digital media company, operates out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual digital displays in China. It operates out-of-home advertising network based on the number of locations and flat-panel television displays in its network. The company, through its multi-platform digital advertising network, reaches urban consumers at locations and point-of-interests over various media formats, including audiovisual television displays in buildings and stores, advertising poster frames, outdoor light-emitting diode digital billboards, and Internet advertising platforms. As of June 30, 2010, its digital out-of-home advertising network had approximately 142,000 LCD displays in its LCD display network and approximately 275,000 advertising in-elevator poster and digital frames, installed in approximately 90 cities. The company also provides Internet marketing solutions; and sells software licenses and services, primarily including Adforward software. Focus Media Holding Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Shanghai, the Peoples Republic of China.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
Bob Iaccino has just joined forces with Vladimir Ribakov and The Forex Signals Group
Vladimir Ribakov is arguably one of the best traders on the planet and you may have already heard of Bob Iaccino, as the financial media networks are always asking his opinions and analysis of the markets.
Bob Iaccino On CNBC and Bloomberg
To date, Bob has done over 500 interviews on the markets in top networks such as; CNBC, CNBC Asia, Bloomberg Television and Radio, CNN International, CNN Moneyline,
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Disciplined Trading Track Record
Bob has a proven track record of providing top notch education and is committed to teaching his strategies to build more disciplined, educated traders. And he does
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Thursday, January 27, 2011
Trading Synergy IntrepidTrader Option Trading Software with Technical Charting
Option trading software is usually designed for analyzing options only. The problem with this, of course, is that some traders use technical analysis to determine where a market is likely to go. So, with option trading, they find themselves having to purchase more than one piece of software to accommodate their trading style. However, IntrepidTrader combines sophisticated technical analysis techniques, such as the Elliott Wave theory, with option trading analytics to allow traders to easily find trading opportunities without the time consuming and cumbersome effort of using two different pieces of software.
An Option Trading Example
In preparation for finding a trade, we set up our portfolio of securities in the Quotes window. Figure 1 shows an example of a listing of stocks and we are interested in scanning.
Click Here for More Details
After the portfolio is created, we simply open the IntrepidTrader Scan window. This window helps us establish the criteria that we want to scan for in the portfolio above. In this option trading example, we are going to search for a Elliott Wave four formation and a Bear Call option spread for use in our option trading. This is easily done by selecting "Wave 4” and then selecting the "Bear Call" spread from the box below as shown in Figure 2. Then, we are ready to look for option trading opportunities, we initiate the search by pressing the "Scan" button.
The "Scan Results" portion of the scanner window will show which securities met the criteria specified in our scan. These results are shown in Figure 3.
Selecting a spread from the Options tab in the Results section of the Scanner window will open the Option Worksheet as shown in Figure 4. This window is used to provide further option trading analysis for the spread. It shows the spreads profit and loss graph as well as the related delta, gamma, theta, vega and implied volatility for each leg of the spread. Here you can change the “Chart as of” or “Changes in IV” values found to the side of the chart to see how the passage of time and fluctuations in implied volatility will affect the spread. As you might imagine, in option trading, this type of analysis and information is very important.
Those interested in option trading may also want to look at the chart related to this option spread to time our entry. In Figure 5, we can see a price chart for the security that relates to the option spread that we were just looking at. As you can see, the price target projected by IntrepidTrader catches the end of this Elliott Wave four correction. At this point, we want to use the gold boxes drawn around recent price action to enter this market. So, as prices break out of the box to the down side, we may want to enter our option spread shown in Figure 4. Also, we may want to exit our position if the market moves above the top of the box. Naturally, this example allows you to easily see the advantages you would have over others by combining Elliott Wave and option trading analysis.
IntrepidTrader combines the precision of Elliott Wave analysis with the powerful leverage found in option trading. And as you can see, it even helps you determine your risk / reward and probability of profit of the option spread before the trade is entered. Realizing that all of this analysis was done by clicking one button may cause you to understand that powerful and effective trading tools can save you time and boost your profits. And as you imagine what this could be like for you, you may find yourself wanting to see IntrepidTrader in action.
Click here for more options trading information and resources.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Warning to Options Traders Looking at NetFlix Earnings
Click here for the Free Option Trading Signals Alerts Newsletter
One of the hardest things for me to remember is not to believe everything I see. I am a sucker for the latest “can’t lose” strategy supported by the experts. This morning I ran across a trade that looked too good to be true. I think it is, but I think it is instructive to walk through the potential hidden land mine. The event is the Wednesday afternoon release of NFLX earnings but there is a hidden trap for option traders using one commonly used earnings play structure.
The construction of the play is that of a “double calendar” spread. The underlying profit engine is an attempt to exploit the routinely seen spike in implied volatility (IV) of the options series most closely following earnings release. In this case, NFLX has weekly options which expire 48 hours after the scheduled announcement.
In order to understand the situation, let’s walk through the components step-by-step. First, is the routinely observed spike in IV seen as earnings release approaches present? As shown in the options pricing matrix below, the IV of the weekly options is substantially higher than the next series in time, the February monthlies:
Click the image below for a larger view.
Next, we need to get an idea of the magnitude of the price movement expected by option traders. This price range can be imputed from the break even points of the at-the-money straddle in the front most options. As shown in the graph below, this analysis gives a current expected price range of 167-203 following earnings release.
Click the image below for a larger view.
Now let us consider a double calendar spread with strikes selected to encompass this anticipated price range. To review quickly, a calendar spread consists of selling a short dated option while buying a longer dated option at the same strike price. An example of such a trade in NFLX is presented below:
Click the image below for a larger view.
That looks pretty sweet, right? We have projected break even points of 147.3 and 238.86 and a probability of profit (P.P.) of 100%. So all we have to do is put this on, wait for earnings, and barring any huge surprise, we take profit of 100% or more home.
What could possibly go wrong? Unfortunately there is a high probability of a sequence of events that will totally erase any profits and likely result in a loss. Go back and look at the option pricing matrix above and focus on the IV of the options we are buying. These options trade at a volatility of 60%. Is that high or low? You tell me from this historic graph of volatility in NFLX options:
Click the image below for a larger view.
As you can see, the current level of volatility that you are buying in the long legs of the calendar is quite elevated on a historical basis. Furthermore, the spread between statistical (historical) and implied volatilities has rarely been greater. This combination of events sets up a high probability of a “volatility crush” on the options you hold long as part of the spread. The moving parts of this crush are:
1. Cessation of the “bleeding” of juiced IV from the weeklies into the monthly series as the weekly option IV deflates massively.
2. Convergence of IV toward the value of historical volatility in order to close the huge divergence in the levels currently present.
This situation sets up a high probability for a negative impact on the trade which will almost certainly result in a loss. Do I know these events will transpire? Absolutely not, and I may be 100% wrong. Survival as an options trader is all about recognizing high probability events and structuring trades accordingly. No free cheese here; time to move along to the next trade.
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Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Forex: Don't Rush to Bury The U.S. Dollar
Financial markets -- i.e., investors -- have a short memory. For example: At Elliott Wave International, we have pointed out time and again that when market sentiment reaches a bullish or bearish extreme, chances are that a trend change is near. Yet time and again, almost everyone forgets this.
Here's a fresh example. In June 2010, the U.S. dollar began a losing streak against its forex competitors, especially the euro. Market observers threw on the pile just about every "fundamental" reason to be bearish the buck: high U.S. deficits and unemployment, weak economy, and -- the granddaddy of them all -- the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. (Also known by the abbreviation QE2 and the misnomer "money printing.")
Our Currency Specialty Service editor Jim Martens captured the uber-bearish dollar spirit in the November 2010 issue of our monthly Global Market Perspective (published Nov. 5):
Dollar weakness is viewed as a sure thing by many, just as the technical evidence points to an impending bottom. ...sentiment shows a lopsided lack of bullishness toward the buck that, according to Trade-Futures.com, recently dipped into single digits. It comes as no surprise that this outlook lies in contrast to the available technical evidence.
The EURUSD chart shows it best. The euro recovery from June is in three waves. It has retraced approximately 61.8% of the almost year-long decline. Within the recovery, wave (C) is virtually equal to wave (A) and has reached the upper channel line. The structure, extent and internal relationships within the recovery are all characteristics of a correction and suggest the euro is near its peak.
The actual dollar low suggested by this Elliott wave analysis came on November 4 -- the very day QE2 was formally announced (oh, the irony). Wrote Jim Martens in his Currency Specialty Service:
Since May , sentiment has turned 180 degrees. In May, just before the euro bottom, the focus was on the troubles in Greece and the coming issues Spain and Portugal. Listening to the press, the euro could go nowhere but lower. Six months later, the story is QE2, and the only outcome is a falling dollar. This only after the buck has already gone down substantially. This is a perfect example of how the news reaches an extreme and is widely accepted just as a turn that goes against the expected outcome occurs. This time, the bearish dollar news is actually bullish.
Indeed, the USD has only gotten stronger since November. Here's what the same EURUSD chart looked like in early January:
Why is it important to remind ourselves of the huge role collective psychology plays in the markets? Because the chorus of "concerns" about the dollar's well-being has started once again.
See, the EUR has gained against the USD recently, pushing the exchange rate from $1.29 to near $1.37. And to some (many?), this is again signals the start of "the death of the dollar."
Will history repeat itself? You don't need to wait to find out. Read our latest Elliott wave forecasts for the EURUSD and other currencies in the Currency Specialty Service online now.
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Monday, January 24, 2011
Managing Wealth with UBS Investment Bank
This week I’m taking a chance on the short side with a short sell on UBS Investment Bank. The broad market looks to still be in bull mode in general, although somewhat choppy and toppy in my opinion, but if I get lucky here there might be a selloff and this trade just might workout. I’m betting I’m going to get a lot of comments on this saying I’m crazy to be shorting UBS for whatever reason. All I can say to any comments is to implement stop-loss in case it keeps heading higher.
UBS 52-Week Price Breakout?
With UBS’s 52 week stock price near the high of its range of 12.26 to 18.48, I don’t believe in a new breakout right now, but instead on a low-risk high-reward short sale on it. Again, I could be totally wrong here on this short sale bet so just stick to the stop-loss I’ve set or even tighten it up to just above the 18.48 52 week high if you’re going to take the position.
UBS Balance Sheet and European Sovereign Debt Problems
UBS’s current balance sheet is terrible with almost 100% debt to equity from my analysis. With the European Sovereign debt problems, the European banks are selling at significant discounts some might say making them possible great buying opportunities. I’m suggesting that the European debt crisis and collateral damage potential is not over yet, and the buying opportunity for at least this UBS is not here yet.
UBS, Lehman Notes, Lehman Brothers Unsecured Debt, and the US Taxpayers List
UBS has a tarnished reputation it’s trying to fix from its subprime loan crisis involvement and subsequent collateral damage aftermath from representing selling Lehman Notes, and having to give up its list of US taxpayer bank accounts to the IRS. UBS represented the Lehman Notes as safe no risk investments, and that investors would receive 100% of their investment in the Lehman Notes after they reached maturity. UBS did not inform its customers of the real risks associated with the Lehman Notes, including the credit risk of the borrower, Lehman Brothers. The reality is that the Lehman Notes were only unsecured Lehman Brothers debt. UBS was representing the Lehman Notes as safe, and securities arbitration claims against UBS on this issue are still on-going. The Lehman Notes now are now worthless.
UBS Earnings Statement
February 8th, 2011 UBS will report 4th quarter 2010 earnings, along with supposedly making an announcement on their proposed 15% to 25% bonus’s for staff and wealth managers. The total bonus is supposedly to possibly be 4 billion Swiss francs
The UBS Lifestyle Guide
UBS issued a style standards guide for employees on how to look, act and eat when reporting for work, which has raised some controversy and laughs from some. They have now revised this style guide with more general guidelines than the previous controversial specific guidelines it issued. I don’t know if this incident affects their forward stock price or not, but it indicates possible uncertainty in managements view and confidence on their employees and possibly the overall social environment at UBS right now. I would suggest that what beliefs are in the minds of management and employees at UBS whether good or bad, they will manifest in time.
UBS Short Short-Term
UBS is a great bank and company I believe in the long term. In the short term, I’m betting on possible market odds and probabilities that there is low-risk high-reward discounting to be had on UBS. If not, take stop-loss on move on.
Sell UBS Investment Bank – Ticker UBS
Sell Entry: 17.93 to 16.99
Take Profit Areas: 15.29 to 14.96, 14.65 to 14.35, 13.15 to 12.85
UBS Investment Bank Company Profile
UBS AG, a financial services firm, provides wealth management, asset management, and investment banking services to private, corporate, and institutional clients worldwide. The company also involves in retail and commercial banking in Switzerland. Its Wealth Management & Swiss Bank divisions wealth management business caters to high net worth individuals worldwide (except the Americas) whether they are investing internationally or in their home country. This division offers these clients a range of tailored advice and investment services. Its Swiss Bank business provides a set of banking services for Swiss individual and corporate clients. The company's Wealth Management Americas division offers products and services specifically designed to address the needs of high net worth and ultra high net worth individuals, and families. It includes Wealth Management U.S., domestic Canada, and the international business booked in the United States. UBS AG's Global Asset Management division provides investment solutions to financial intermediaries and institutional clients worldwide. It offers investment capabilities across various traditional and alternative asset classes, including equity, fixed income, currency, hedge fund, real estate, infrastructure, and private equity investment capabilities that could also be combined in multi-asset strategies. The company's Investment Bank division provides securities products and research in equities, fixed income, rates, foreign exchange, and metals. It also offers advisory services, as well as access to the world's capital markets for corporate, institutional, intermediary, and alternative asset management clients. UBS AG operates in approximately 50 countries. The company was founded in 1862 and is based in Zurich, Switzerland.
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Click the UBS Investment Bank stock chart below for a larger view.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Energy Market Stocks to Fuel Your Investment Portfolio Performance
Click Here to Watch the Video
In today’s short video Adam Hewison of MarketClub is going to show you some of the markets that he's looking at in the energy complex. He's going to be looking at coal, oil, solar and some other large energy companies and ETF’s.
As this is a short video, be sure to check in and watch the Free Energy Opportunities Webinar this Thursday, January 20th at 4pm EST/9pm GMT.
You will need to reserve a spot as the webinars typically reach capacity quickly.
Click here to register for this Free Webinar January 20th at 4pm EST/9pm GMT:
Take a look at what will be covered in the webinar and check out the new portfolio manager which we will be used extensively throughout today’s video.
There is also a big surprise which will be announced at the webinar that you no doubt will like.
Click here for today’s free energy opportunities.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
EURUSD Rally: A Correction or a New Euro Bull Market?
Over the past eleven days, the euro has gained about 600 pips, or 6 cents, against its main rival, the U.S. dollar, moving the EURUSD in the mid-$1.34 range.
Forex analysts have attributed the rally to a variety of factors, but mostly to hopes that the European sovereign debt crisis has been halted. The news makes it sound like there simply hasn't been a good reason to sell euros lately -- but from an Elliott wave perspective, the reasons for the EURUSD rally have been quite different.
Our January 11 Free Update article reported that at the time -- before the "bullish" news from Europe had emerged -- Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service was already calling for a EURUSD to rise, based only on Elliott wave patterns. The advance was expected to be corrective -- that is, moving against the main trend. In Elliott wave terms, it was labeled wave 2 -- of waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, that is.
The question is, now that the EURUSD rally has moved this far, does it still qualify as wave two? To answer that, you need to step back and take a look at the larger picture. Currency Specialty Service presents an updated daily EURUSD chart every evening; here's one from January 18 (some Elliott wave labels were removed for this article):
Click the EURUSD chart below for a larger view.
As you can see, on a larger scale there is still a perfectly legitimate way to label the advance as a continued wave 2; "recent setback maintains its corrective shape," says Currency Specialty Service.
Forex markets bring new information 24 hours a day, and few analytical methods allow you to keep up with this ever-changing marketplace as dynamically as Elliott waves. To see how far this EURUSD rally may have left to go, you can study shorter-term wave labels on the intraday pages online right now.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Managed Your Own Account or Let a Professional Do It?
Unsuccessful at managing and or don't have time to manage your own investment trading account? Let a full-time professional money manager do it for you.
What Is A Managed Investment Account?
A managed investment account is managed by a professional money manager, compared to mutual funds which are professionally managed for many mutual fund account holders. Managed investment accounts are personalized investment portfolios tailored to the exact needs of you, the individual account holder.
A Managed Investment Account Example
For example, if you invest in Acme Mutual Funds, which invests in stock 1 and stock 2, and you want to reduce the weighting of stock 1 in the fund, the Acme fund company wouldn't allow it since the money manager managing the fund cannot make investment decisions based on just your investment preference, but of all its investors in the mutual fund.
Benefits of Managed Investment Accounts
Diversification across asset classes, within asset classes, across the world, and across fund managers.
Expertise and access to talented investment specialists.
Time management so you can set and forget your investment strategy.
Performance results by managed investments providing hassle free potential to long term profit performance.
Managed Accounts Can Be Custom Tailored for You
With managed investment accounts, you the investor are given the freedom and ability to do what you want with the investments within the portfolio, and any decision made by the money manager is based on your individual investment goals and objectives. Thus, if you have a managed account and wants to reduce holdings in stock 1, you can work with your money manager to do so.
Out-Performing the Market Averages Is A Primary Goal
The majority of most mutual funds do not out-perform the market averages in the long-term anyway. Managed investment accounts give you more choice to manage your money that works best for you where you have a better chance of out-performing the market averages which is one of the primary goals of any investment.
More Low-Risk High-Reward Choices for You The Investor
Choose from the managed investment account programs above that provide managed stocks, forex, and commodity futures investments. Choosing to invest in more than one managed investment account can help with lowering your total overal risk.
More Benefits and Features of a Managed Investment Account
For some investors, managed funds provide the right amount of control without the time-consuming hands-on management required by direct investing. The advantages of investing in managed funds include:
Access to sophisticated investments. Investing in a managed fund gives you access to a range of investments that may not ordinarily be available or affordable to you as a single investor.
Experience of a fund manager. By investing in managed funds you can benefit from a fund manager's expertise, resources and experience. This means you can spend less time managing your investments, and you also gain peace of mind knowing that your money is in experienced hands.
Diversification. Through managed funds, you can access different fund managers, asset classes, companies, industries, sectors and countries. To achieve this level of diversification when investing directly, you would need large sums.
Your money is managed by experts. The qualified investment professionals managing your money have access to information, research and investment processes not readily available to individuals.
Select your investment style. You can choose whether to invest in a managed fund designed to deliver income, or one focused on capital growth.
Regular savings plans. Many managed funds offer the convenience of a regular savings plan so you can add to your investment on a regular basis. Regular investments can often be deducted straight from your bank account.
Distribution reinvestment. Managed funds make it easy to reinvest your investment earnings. This allows you to purchase more units with no additional cash outlay and take advantage of compounding over time.
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Monday, January 17, 2011
Discovery Communications Weekly Stock Pick
My stock pick this week is a buy long position on Discovery Communications Ticker DISCA. Discovery Communications owns and operates the Discovery Channel, TLC, Animal Planet, Discovery Health, Discovery Kids, Science Channel, Planet Green, Investigation Discovery, Military Channel, FitTV, HD Theater to name a few, and is now in a joint venture with Oprah Winfrey Network.
Old School New School
I’ve learned more from these types of new TV channels than I ever learned from old school anything. Children today can have more fun learning and being more interactive with these new age learning TV channels and programs than ever before. There’s also plenty of excellent unique programming for the teenagers and parents too. High quality content for all ages. New information you can really use to better your life and lifestyle.
Discovery Communications CEO David Zaslav
Discovery CEO David Zaslav is managing this global media giant that has better content, shows than ever before with characters like adventure survivalist Bear Grylls, Sarah Palin, the Deadliest Catch crew, and Oprah Winfrey amongst many others.
Discovery's Revenues, Operating Margins and Return On Investment
Revenues have also increased to 10 per cent in the first three quarters of 2010, thanks to increased viewers and advertising revenues. Domestic operating margins have increased to an amazing 59 per cent in three years time, and its international operating margins have increase to 43 per cent. Discovery’s shares have responded with a 23% return last year.
Mr. Zaslav sees room to increase revenues and margins even more this year to the skepticism of some analysts. Mr. Zaslav has helped Discovery grow to a market valuation of more than $16 billion during his stay in the CEO seat.
Re-Launching and Removing Content
Discovery has been re-launching and or removing struggling channels, and its newest hit channel TLC has gone to the USA’s number six network from number 10 in 2008. Discover’s number one priority they say is to build their winning brands and viewers with high quality content and talent. TLC will now get more international exposure with its expansion from 50 million homes to its 100 million goal target.
Global Investment Exposure with Discovery
Discovery is investing more in global content than ever before because it can make larger returns in international markets and new digital media. Discovery is now in 180 markets worldwide, which is more than 80% of the world’s population.
Cable TV Content That Entertains In Any Language
Mr. Zaslav admits that Discovery is fortunate that its content works well around the world. Its content works well in most all languages. He helps creates its global attraction with the Discovery global committees that review how well a show will perform before bringing it to US televisions. With Discovery’s global growth, Mr. Zaslav spends almost lhalf his time traveling around the world working on new deals.
Discovery's Core Business Model
The core of Discovery’s business model remains in cable TV for the time being, which Mr. Zaslav says is very healthy, even with the new but not totally developed internet TV media starting to take some market share. Discovery’s core cable business in the US is slowing down some, but its new growing international markets are 15 years behind the US currently and consumers are still upgrading to their TV sets to high definition and still watching a lot of television. Discovery has setup partnerships with Sony and IMAX for 3D viewing and should make its content even more closer to real than ever and entertaining to attract more viewers.
Discovery's Future Growth Prospects
Mr. Zaslav says Discovery’s growth opportunities have just begun, and with its recent innovative new age content, its stock shares might be one of the best discoveries of this year and possibly some years to come.
Buy Long Discover Communication – Ticker DISCA
Buy Entry: 37.69 to 39.50
Stop-Loss: 37.25 or 8% from Your Entry Price
Take Profit Areas: 45.00 to 45.92, 46.70 to 47.69, 52.31 to 53.39, 62.99 to 64.23, 70.37 to 71.75
Discovery Communications Company Profile
Discovery Communications, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a media and entertainment company worldwide. It provides original and purchased programming across various distribution platforms with approximately 100 television networks in 35 languages. The company operates cable and satellite television networks in the United States, including Discovery Channel, TLC, Animal Planet, Discovery Health, Discovery Kids, Science Channel, Planet Green, Investigation Discovery, Military Channel, FitTV, and HD Theater. It also distributes a network of 21 international television brands, including Discovery Channel; Discovery Channel; Discovery Science; Investigation Discovery; Discovery Turbo; Discovery World; HD Networks, Discovery Lifestyle Networks, such as Discovery Travel & Living, Discovery Home & Health, and Discovery Real Time; DMAX; Discovery Kids; People+Arts, Discovery en Español, and Discovery Familia. In addition, the company provides education services, including Discovery Education Streaming, an online video-on-demand teaching service; and Discovery Education Assessment, a service that enables K-12 educators to measure student progress. Additionally, it offers sound, music, mixing sound effects, and other related services to motion picture studios, independent producers, broadcast networks, cable channels, advertising agencies, and interactive producers; and operates an e-commerce site, DiscoveryStore.com. Discovery Communications has a joint venture agreement with Hasbro Inc. The company is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland.
Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical criteria, and trade pattern setups.
Click the Discovery Communications stock chart below for a larger view.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Peak Performance 101 Trading 3-Day Workshop
Date: January 18-20 Tuesday-Thursday Cary North Carolina
Can't make the workshop? Click here for Van Tharp's Home-Study Investing Trading Courses
Spend Three Thought-Provoking Days Sharing Secrets of the Man Who Has Helped Produce More Great Traders and Investors Than Anyone Else You Are Ever Likely to Meet.
You’ll leave this investment "Boot Camp" knowing, for the first time in your life, why some people consistently make profits over and over again, while other investors and traders are erratic and unsuccessful. More importantly, you’ll be able to overcome self-sabotage and develop rock-solid discipline in your performance in the markets. You’ll learn why this course was featured in Forbes magazine and why the magazine was quoted as saying, "Tharp’s disciples swear by the results."
Dr. Tharp is the most consistent, astute, and systematic researcher of human behavior that you’ll probably ever meet. He has personally interviewed thousands of top traders to determine what makes them excel in their profession and collected psychological profiles from over 5,000 traders and investors.
He is a pioneer in the profession that today is commonly known as a "trading coach." There are other trading coaches now, but when Dr. Tharp conceptualized this process over 18 years ago, he was one of the first people to ever do so. Attending this course means that you are learning from the best.
He carefully crafted all of the information from his studies into a model that people like you can adopt to improve your own skills. In fact, when Jack Schwager, interviewed 16 of the world’s best traders in his original Market Wizards book, he also elected to interview Dr. Tharp as a Peak Performance Trading Coach.
Now, you can join the thousands of fortunate traders and investors over the last five years who have already learned the secrets of Dr. Tharp’s carefully researched model for successful trading through this course. You will learn for yourself the incredible difference that adopting this model can make for yourself—both in terms of trading profits and in improving your life. That’s the amazing thing about Dr. Tharp’s model—not only will you improve your profits, but you’re likely to become more successful in all aspects of your life.
Dr. Tharp was an innovator when he began his studies of traders and the trading process, and he is still an innovator today, constantly improving upon what he teaches and how he teaches.
"If you have a fairly successful system for trading or investing, then I can show you how to obtain more consistent performance with less risk out of that system — in short, I'll show you what peak performance trading is all about!" — Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Click here to review more information and enroll in the workshop.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
ZuluTrade Autotrade Forex Signals by Specialists
What is ZuluTrade?
ZuluTrade bridged the gap between valuable information in money markets and trade execution, by converting the advice of professional and talented traders globally to an executed trade rapidly and automatically in your account (from supported brokers).
There was a time when trading was a headache. Not anymore! You don't have to study or monitor the market to make a good pick, because hundreds of signal providers from all over the world are doing it for you. All you have to do is pick the experts you like, and ZuluTrade will quickly convert their advice into live trades in your trading account directly with the broker. And the best of all, it's completely FREE!*
ZuluTrade receives rebates from the brokers, for the trades generated and splits them with the experts that provide the advice. Check the performance results recommended by our experts here.
Who is placing the trades on my account? Do the experts know about my account?
None of the experts that recommend trades will ever know your account's existence. ZuluTrade receives their recommendations, and checks the experts you have subscribed with in your account profile, and decides whether or not to autotrade their advice in your live account using a secure direct connection with the broker's backend. ZuluTrade's patented engine places trades automatically with no human intervention. ZuluTrade service is server based, in other words you don't even need to have your computer on.
How do I get started?
All you have to do is provide ZuluTrade with the name and account number of the brokerage firm you're trading with. Sign and fax the LOD required by your broker, to authorize ZuluTrade to bridge the experts' advice with your broker account.
If it is the first time that you will trade online or you never had an on-line trading account with one of the brokers we support, then the first step is to open a new account. Click here to open one now in just 5 minutes.
Are the results hypothetical? There are a lot of websites that claim all kinds of results.
Every signal received by ZuluTrade is executed on at least one live / demo broker account. The results contain final spread, swap rates, and profit or loss from current open positions, hence all possible costs by the broker. The spread is the standard spread advertised by the broker you're trading with. Hence our performance always reflects real market conditions. Due to the volatility of the markets, sometimes results may vary between accounts. All signals and trades executed on a demo account are considered to be hypothetical.
I already have an account with one of the dealing brokers you support. What is the next step?
Click here and follow the wizard. When your broker notifies you that the change has been made, you will receive an email from us that you are ready to start using ZuluTrade. This process will take a maximum of 2 days.
I already have an account with one of the dealing brokers you support. Why is ZuluTrade telling me that I cannot use this account? Signing the RB form doesn't work. Do I need to open a new account? What’s wrong?
This is because when you opened this account, there was a party that acted as a Referring Broker (RB). Your dealing broker cannot remove that Referring Broker from your account and replace it with ZuluTrade as the new one (legal issues). You need to open a new account and set ZuluTrade as your Referring Broker. Click here to open a new account already setup for ZuluTrade.
I do not want to open a new account, and I don’t want to sign any forms, even though there is not any cost involved with it. I prefer to use my existing account with the broker I’m trading with, without any changes. Is this possible?
No. By signing the RB form, you enable ZuluTrade to receive rebates from the broker or dealer you have an account with, and most importantly for ZuluTrade to pay the signal providers that are generating the trades being executed in your account. So if you do not wish to sign the RB form with the existing account, the alternative is to open a new account with your broker by signing the same RB form for that new account.
Why do I need to type my username for the broker platform I’m trading with? Is there any danger for anybody to steal it?
No, there is no danger. We will never ask you for your password. But even If your password was stolen, it is not possible for anyone (including ZuluTrade) to withdraw funds from your account. This is because your broker, who always wires funds to the beneficiary of the account ONLY, is the one who had opened the account
To link your existing broker account with our revolutionary trading platform.
Please click here to fill in the signup form. We will then automatically send you your login details to begin autotrading with our platform. Accounts are usually activated within 3-5 days.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Free Presentation: How To Grab The Highest-Probability & Lowest-Risk “Sweet Spots” From The Best Stocks In Less Than 20 Minutes A Night With A Pretty Unusual Technique
While researching new ways to save time trading the stock market (without sacrificing profit potential), Bill Poulos of Profits Run stumbled upon 2 'discoveries' that may surprise you.
The first one has to do with a 'flaw' in how 90% of more of traders think about trading these markets.
It's deceptively simple . . . yet it led him to develop a pretty unusual technique around grabbing the highest-probability & lowest-risk 'sweet spots' from the best stocks.
Watch this brand new video he just recorded that reveals these discoveries, along with an unusual 'profit pipeline' technique.
Click here to see it:
If you really, really enjoy staring at your computer all day long day trading every nook & cranny of the markets, then you might not like this video, because it shows you how to spend less time trading and more time 'having a life'.
Click here for more information on Bill Poulos of Profits Run
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Desperately Seeking Dividend Yield: Why Capital Gains Aren't Enough
By Josh Peters of Morningstar Investment Research
Investors Cannot Live on Capital Gains Alone: Investment Challenges In a Low-Return World
Some have termed the last 10 years a "lost decade" for stocks, as the typical American investor has been rewarded with temporary gains at best and permanent losses at worst. Volatility, uncertainty, and disappointment have kept millions of investors from reaching their goals.
I am not about to give up. Having worked hard and saved, I'm determined to hang on to the fruits of my labor and increase its value over time. But no longer do I fight this battle on Wall Street's terms.
Over five years ago, I charted a new course:
1. I focus on income instead of capital gains.
2. I approach stocks as a potential owner and partner in a business, rather than as a trader.
3. I insist that any business I partner with must treat me fairly.
The factor common to these three goals is simple: dividends. Not just any dividends, but large, reliable, and growing streams of cash that I never need to give back. These are what I am determined to provide in the pages, website, and e-mails of Morningstar Dividend Investor.
Many explanations are being offered as to why stocks have had such a poor run so far this century. I say, "Follow the money." The sad fact is that most American corporations no longer recognize or treat shareholders as true owners. Even as the economy struggles to climb out of the worst recession in more than 70 years, profits are soaring. Yet the bulk of these earnings, as in the decade just past, aren't finding their way to investors. Instead, these rivers of cash are diverted toward empire-building acquisitions, dubious share repurchases, and obscene executive pay packets.
This has led to an environment where, no matter how interest rates seem to go, stocks still can't compete. Total profits for the companies that make up the Standard & Poor's 500 index could top $900 billion in he upcoming year, yet their dividend payments are running at only $211 billion--less than 25 cents on the dollar! The average stock in this group yields only 2%, half of the historic average of 4%.
When I set out to seek better results, I had to let go of the idea that a stock is a piece of paper to be traded back and forth. Frankly, as manager of Morningstar Dividend Investor's two model portfolios, I engage in relatively few buys and sells. Instead, I've taken on the mantle of the great capitalists of old: Those who sought out good businesses, invested their money only on attractive terms, demanded a fair share of the profits, and let their capital do the work.
This approach will not work with just any old stock. Above all, such a strategy requires a large dividend yield (no less than 3%, in my opinion, and preferably between 4% and 7%) to provide a reasonable prospect of success. Where you find large, reliable, and growing dividends, you're probably looking at an enterprise that is consistently profitable, relatively unburdened by debt, and whose management runs against the tide to treat shareholders like actual partners.
What are some of these stocks I've bought and recommended to Morningstar Dividend Investor subscribers? One calls itself "the monthly dividend company" and has raised its dividend in each of the last 50 calendar quarters. Another dominates one of the most humdrum fields imaginable: the distribution of propane gas. Still another has dodged the health-care industry's enormous challenges to raise its dividend at a double-digit pace while many of its rivals struggled just to keep their dividends flat.
The truth is that dividends are more than just pocket change, more even than a basis for a comfortable retirement. Dividends are the sole and essential link between investors and the businesses they own. Day by day and month by month, I comb through the market for extraordinary businesses. I put each and every candidate through a rigorous set of tests focused on their dividends. Those that pass become part of our model portfolios, each of which demonstrates returns with real-money transactions, not paper-based claims.
Investment success in the decade to come will not come easy or by accident. Losing the last decade was a dreadful shame. Losing another is simply not an acceptable outcome. To stand out, I believe an investor will need unique perspectives on the markets, an unusual amount of discipline, a willingness to shed Wall Street's hot-money mentality, and, above all, an insistence on being rewarded as a stock's rightful owner through attractive and rising cash dividend payments.
Click here for a free trial of Morningstar Dividend Investor.
Click here for the Morningstar SmartInvestor update every weekend.
Monday, January 10, 2011
David Einhorn on Lehman & Moral Hazard
David Einhorn Book: Fooling Some of the People All of the Time
My stock pick this week on a buy long position on Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd. Greenlight Reinsurance invests all of its money with David Einhorn or Greenlight Capital. Einhorn is Chairman of the Board of Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd, which provides property and casualty insurance. David Einhorn is famous for shorting Lehman Brothers in 2007 before anyone publicly knew there was a problem with the investment banks, and making statements on Bloomberg and CNBC to such during the 2008 financial market crisis to the dismay of the investment banks.
David Einhorn is president and co-founder of Greenlight Capital, a long-short value-oriented hedge fund founded in 1996. Greenlight Capital has generated greater than a twenty-one percent annualized net return for its partners over the years.
Einhorn Short Selling Lehman Brothers 2007
In July 2007, Einhorn started short selling Lehman Brothers. His analysis showed that Lehman was under capitalized, and had huge exposure to CDO’s that caused the melt down in 2008 of the investment banks, and the credit debt stock markets. Einhorn claimed that Lehman was using devious accounting practices in their financial report filings.
Bear Stearns Bailout 2008
When Bear Stearns was bailed out by the Fed in March of 2008, Lehman was known by the street to be in an unstable state also. Einhorn made a conference speech April of 2008 talking about his Lehman short positions. Lehman called Greenlight Capital to ask for, and received a copy of his speech.
Greenlight Capital Lehman Brothers Conference Call 2008
In May 2008, Lehman Brothers CFO Erin Callan had a private call with Einhorn and the Greenlight Capital analysts. The conversation with Callan was to give her a chance to explain discrepancies Einhorn had uncovered between the firm's latest financial filing and what had been discussed during its conference call about that filing.
Ms. Callan is quoted to have stumbled with her responses to questions from Greenlight on Lehman's asset valuations. When Einhorn later went public with the conversation, the declining Lehman share price took a further drop. Callan was fired a few weeks later when Lehman reported a worse than expected $2.8bn second-quarter loss. Then in September of 2008 Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.
David Einhorn Greenlight Capital Return on Investment
David Einhorn and Greenlight Capital generated strong gains for its clients in December 2010. While most reinsurers invest premiums into bonds and other credit type securities, Greenlight Reinsurance invests almost all its premiums with David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, who specializes in long and short equity investing trading.
Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital provided a 4% return in December 2010, with Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd portfolio up 11% for 2010. Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd said that its biggest disclosed long positions at the end of 2010 were Arkema, Ensco PLC, Gold, Pfizer, and Vodafone Group. Einhorn also likes Apple and Verizon.
Invest with a Winning Fund Manager and His Stock Holdings
If you’re unsure about which way the stock market is headed these days, you can invest some of your hard earned money in David Einhorn by buying some GLRE shares, as he’s not afraid to short the market as well as go long. My buy long position on Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd has about a 5 to 1 reward risk ratio if it turns out. I’m betting it will, and if it doesn’t the stop-loss is minimal compared to the probability of the potential upside.
Buy Long Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd – Ticker GLRE
Buy Entry: 25.89 to 26.99
Take Profit Areas: 29.91 to 30.67, 31.46 to 32.30, 34.74 to 35.64,
Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd Company Profile
Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd. is an AM Best "A-" (Excellent) rated specialist property and casualty reinsurance company based in the Cayman Islands. The Company provides a variety of custom-tailored reinsurance solutions to the insurance, risk retention group, captive and financial marketplaces. Established in 2004, Greenlight Re selectively offers customized reinsurance solutions in markets where capacity and alternatives are limited. With a focus on deriving superior returns from both sides of the balance sheet, Greenlight Re's assets are managed according to a value-oriented equity-focused strategy that complements the Company's business goal of long-term growth in book value per share.
Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical criteria, and trade pattern setups.
Click the Greenlight Reinsurance Ltd stock chart below for a larger view.
Friday, January 07, 2011
Ready to get started in the Forex market?
Click here for free registration.
Join us for an introduction to forex trading and discover the opportunities that exist in the world's most traded financial markets.
Getting Started in Forex Webinar offers an overview of currency trading, including key concepts, ideas, and market terminology. In this webinar you'll learn:
• About the major currencies and how to interpret currency quotes, and CFD prices.
• How to place trades and understand order types, as well as managing positions.
• How to read charts and perform basic technical analysis using AvaTrader trading platform.
• How to trade forex as well as other instruments we offer, such as as oil, gold, etc.
This webinar will conclude with a 10-minute Q&A session.
The session is recommended for beginners in forex trading.
We look forward to you joining us
Click here to sign up at the most convenient date and time for you.
Click here for more forex information and resources.
Thursday, January 06, 2011
I Want to Become a Better Trader or Investor. Where Do I Start?
The answer of course depends on where you are now, where you want to go, and the time and other resources you are going to devote to your quest.
The Van Tharp Institute has excellent educational and training programs designed for both beginning and advanced traders/investors. But it can be difficult to know where to begin.
The best possible program to begin your exploration into better trading and investing is without a doubt, Dr. Tharp’s Peak Performance Home Study Program for Traders and Investors.
Dr. Tharp recommends this first for everyone because having a solid understanding of your self as a trader or investor is a fundamental key to success. Taking this course first has been our recommendation for years. Even as we add to our range of quality products we still know of no better place to begin.
The benefit of taking this course is not dependent on your experience level. It is not system, time-frame or market specific. It is just as helpful to the person who has traded for 10 years managing millions as it is for the new investor with a small personal account, or to the person who wants to trade but has never traded. This is because the focus of this program is YOU.
The course focuses on all key areas of the individual, such as self-sabotage, fear of pulling the trigger, and overtrading. It helps you analyze and reduce your level of stress. It also, very importantly, opens your eyes to a better understanding of your own belief system. It helps you understand your decision-making processes and makes you a better decision maker. It shows how all of these factors tie into your trading and investing performance.
The Peak Performance Home Study Program is affordable and comes with a money back guarantee. Our clients tell us again and again the course is more than worth the money and time spent. We also frequently hear how this powerful program not only helped build more effective trading skills but also enhanced the student’s whole way of life.
In addition, reading Dr. Tharp’s books, Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom and Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom will certainly start you in the right direction, plus give you a better understanding of Dr. Tharp’s principles. We strongly recommend that you read these books to gain a foundation of the critical concepts that you need to be successful as a trader. These concepts include risk (R), R-multiples, expectancy, and position sizing.
To become a great trader, you first need a solid psychological foundation and an understanding of the trading process (what great traders do). You’ll get this in the peak performance course and the peak performance 101 workshop.
Second, you need to think about your trading activities as a trading business and developing a business plan for your trading. The peak performance home study program addresses this topic as does Dr. Tharp's audio CD series on how to develop a trading business plan that works for you. Also, even though you'd never know this from the name of the book, Dr. Tharp's book, Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading, has one of the best chapters on developing a business plan.
Third, you need trading systems that fit you. Most people want to start here, at the technical side of trading, however, we don’t recommend that.
Dr. Tharp's studies reveal that all of your psychological biases and issues will enter into any trading system development that you do if you have not taken the time to work on yourself as the core of your trading. Thus, once you’ve completed the Peak Performance Course and developed a strong foundation and completed your business plan, then you’ll really be able to develop a trading system that fits you. At that point, we recommend you complete the home study program “How to Develop a Trading System that Fits You” or attend one of our Systems Workshops.
To get a complete picture of everything that’s involved in becoming a great trader, and learn an overall structure that will help you understand what it takes to be a great trader, then we suggest that you attend our three-day Blue Print for Trading Success workshop, which gives you a blueprint to work through all of the fundamentals of Van Tharp’s work.
You have many options depending on your needs and resources. Consider what your goals are and this will help determine what alternatives are best for you.
To check out a listing of our core products, click here.
To check our trading workshop schedule click here.
Our products and workshops are the highest quality and most come with a money-back satisfaction guarantee. With this in mind, you have so much gain and very little lose by trying any of our materials. So don’t wait. Start today!
Explore our Van Tharp Institute website to review all of the "products," "workshops," and "newsletter articles," located at the top of each page, and just drill down to get all the information you need. To get a synopsis on each Tharp
Thank you for your interest in the Van Tharp Institute.