Tuesday, September 27, 2011
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Monday, September 26, 2011
I don't have a stock pick this week because I don't see any low-risk high-reward buys or sells this Monday. If stocks sell off more, short-sell on the breakout to the downside. If 1104.54 on the SP500 gives way, I see major support at 1084.45 to 1075.91, and if that support gives way, I see the next major support at 944.41 to 936.37. If the SP500 can hold at 1114.21 plus, it has some potential upside providing it can move above 1141.73. If it does move above 1141.73, it will be running into stiff resistance at 1233.66 to 1248.99. Instead this week I have some potential profit opportunity on the big sell-off in Gold and Silver you can review below.
A few weeks ago I wrote about how gold was starting to top and that everyone should expect a very sharp drop to the low $1600 area. How I came to this conclusion was though the use of inter-market analysis combining price patterns, gold futures volume, the dollar index and market sentiment. This allowed me to understand what the majority of other traders/investors were thinking and feeling. By knowing each of these market variables and crowd behavior I can accurately see into the future a few days with a high probability of success and most importantly with low downside risk.
At the time when I forecasted gold to reach the low $1600 area gold was still building the top pattern so I could not say how long a recovering would likely take nor did I know exactly when to re-enter a long position. But now that we have seen how gold arrived at my target price I can form a new forecast.
Spot Gold Price Forecast – Daily Chart:
The gold chart below clearly shows rising volatility along with my topping pattern of three surges to new highs. It was August 31st when I warned subscribers and my followers that gold was about to top and that everyone should be taking profits or at least tightening their stops to lock in gains. Only three days later gold topped and it has not stopped falling since.
On August 8th gold had a large opening gap to the upside. This means the price opened the next day much higher from where it closed the previous session. It’s important to note that gaps especially for gold almost always get filled within a couple months. Seeing this gave me a solid reason to think that gold should pullback to this level during the next big correction in price.
Also during the month of August gold had to pullbacks only to continue to make the third and final high. This told me that when the top is put in place was a very high probability that we see the price of gold drop below both of Augusts’ lows and that would trigger stop orders sending the market sharply lower.
Now that we are seeing the stops being flushed out of the market it means the majority of speculative traders have exited their positions. So speculative traders who caused the large surge in gold to take place are now out. Once all the speculative traders have exited which should take place in the coming weeks or two we can expect some type of bounce or rally. I will keep a close eye on the intraday charts for subscribers as we near a potentially major trade setup.
Where are we in this gold bull market?
Well I feel gold is more fairly priced between $1632- $1660 area. Currently gold is trading at $1660 but if things play out like I have seen in the past we just may get one more dip this week to the $1600 area before gold truly puts in a bottom. Because gold went from a new high all the way down to Friday’s panic selling washout instead of a controlled ABC correction I feel a bottom will be more of a one day event. This type of bottom carries more risk and is more difficult to time and trade. So scaling in with a small position at this level and adding on a drop to $1630 then $1600 could prove to be the safest way into a gold position.
Forward looking I see gold bottoming over the next week or two then a nice relief rally to the $1775 area. Depending on how gold arrives there will alter my next gold forecast so let’s wait and see how things unfold.
Spot Silver Price Forecast – Weekly Chart:
Silver I call the Un-Safe haven because to me it’s not a safe haven in the way everyone’s believes it be. I hear and see everyone including friends and family selling all their stocks and putting their money into silver. To me buying large amounts of silver with your retirement money is just ridiculous. I m sure my statement here will trigger an inbox of silver-perma-bulls (silver bugs) to send me hate mail but that’s fine as my assistant filters my emails so I don’t have to keep being reminded how rude some humans can be over an simple opinion…
Investments that can lose 25% in value within 2 days or lose 40% of it’s value in 5 months should not be traded nor invested in with large portions of anyone’s life savings, especially if you are over the age of 50 and have not proven to be a constantly profitable trader. No one can stomach losing that much of their nest egg.
That being said I do feel silver is in a similar situation as gold. I do feel a bottom is near. Silver has formed an ABC correction and the price and volume patterns seem to be in line with a typical bottoming pattern. After Friday’s massive selloff I feel silver may slide a little lower yet before putting in a bottom.
One thing to keep in mind with silver is that it is very thinly traded; there are a lot of speculative traders involved which push and pull the price to extreme levels on a regular basis. So if the broad stock market continues to sell off sharply then I expect silver to follow suit.
Pre-Week Precious Metals Trend Analysis Trading Conclusion:
The price action we have seen this year for both gold and silver indicate were are just warming up for something really big to happen. It could be a massive parabolic rally to ridiculous new highs in 2012 or it could be a large unwinding of the safe havens as countries sort out their issues and the big money starts moving out of metals and into currencies and stocks.
Only time will tell and that is why I analyze the market multiple times per week to stay on top of both long term and short term trends. So if you want to keep up with current trends and trades for gold, silver, oil, bonds and the stocks market check out the GoldandOilGuy
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Thursday, September 22, 2011
The December Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
December renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of this
year's decline crossing at 79.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 76.21 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 78.30. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at
79.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.44. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.21.
The December Euro closed slightly lower on Wednesday and the low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If December renews the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement
level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 132.05 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.09 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 139.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
140.09. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 135.01. Second support
is the 62% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 132.05.
The December British Pound closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends
this week's breakout below the 50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally
crossing at 1.5732. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
December extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at 1.5501 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5986 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1.5766. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5986.
First support is today's low crossing at 1.5543. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 1.5501.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline
off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December
extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at .10916 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at .11863 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at .11379. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.11863. First support is today's low crossing at .11155. Second support is the
62% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at .10916.
The December Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday spiking below
the lower boundary of the August-September trading range crossing at 99.51. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high,
the 62% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 97.94 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.09
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 100.72. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 101.09. First support is today's low crossing at
99.41. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally
crossing at 97.94.
The December Japanese Yen posted a downside reversal on Wednesday as it
consolidated some of the rally off this month's low. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above August's high crossing at .13173
are needed to renew this year's rally. If December renews the decline off
August's high, the 25% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at
.12810 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing
at .13173. First support is this month's low crossing at .12860. Second support
is the 25% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at .12810.
December Gold closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 20-day
moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
December extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1705.40 is
the next downside target. If December renews this year's rally into uncharted
territory, upside target are hard to project. First resistance is this month's
high crossing at 1920.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at
1765.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1705.40.
December Silver closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the
July-August uptrend line crossing near 41.185. The low-range close set the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the reaction
low crossing at 38.810 is the next downside target. Closes above the
July-August uptrend line crossing near 41.185 would temper the near-term
bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
40.932. Second resistance is the July-August uptrend line crossing near 41.185.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 38.810. Second support is
August's low crossing at 37.055.
December Copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above
the 50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 372.15. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the
decline off the late-August high, the 62% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at 351.22 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 401.31 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
391.03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 401.31.
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 370.55. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 351.22.
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Wednesday, September 21, 2011
The Federal Reserve is holding a two-day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Market participants are expecting the Federal Reserve to prop up financial markets yet again with some grand new plan. The fact is the Federal Reserve is running out of bullets.
Interest rates cannot move much lower in terms of the Federal Funds rate, additional quantitative easing seems redundant since Treasury yields are close to all-time lows, and finally a twisting of maturities will do little to alter the current economic conditions. The Federal Reserve is just repeating practices which have proven over a long term do little to create jobs or get the economy moving in the right direction. A stock market rally does not help a person looking for a job!
It is possible that even if the Federal Reserve proposes additional stimulus the market could sell off. I have been trading less in this environment and have been focusing on looking for trade setups that could work regardless of price action. For now I am sitting predominantly in cash waiting to see how price action reacts to the news flow today.
If I had to guess, I continue to believe that the S&P 500 will get back to test the key 1,250 – 1,280 price level. While this resistance level is apparent, Mr. Market will be able to tear up traders if price jams into that resistance zone. Mr. Market loves nothing more than to shake people out of positions. If price works higher I would expect the 1,250 – 1,280 price range to offer just enough risk / reward to get investors and traders involved in a choppy trading environment. The key upside levels on the S&P 500 are shown below on the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX):
The flip side of that argument would see the S&P 500 jamming into recent resistance around the 1,230 price level. If prices rolled over and momentum picked up, a test of the recent August lows would likely transpire and could produce a breakdown and a lower low.
When looking at recent price action, the S&P 500 Index has put in a series of higher lows which is a bullish signal, however the S&P 500 has a long road ahead to break out above the 2011 highs. If the S&P 500 carves out a lower high on the S&P 500 Index at 1,230, 1,250, or even 1,280 and subsequently takes out the August lows then the secular bear will be back. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) shown below illustrates key support levels:
For now I am just going to sit in cash and wait for Mr. Market to provide me with some better clues. The trading range is pretty wide going from around 1,100 to 1,280. What I will be watching for is a strong move supported with volume that pushes price out of this range. As of the close today, price action was trading around the middle of this range but depending on how price action reacts to the news that comes out this Wednesday it is possible that in coming days we could see a breakout in either direction.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
It will likely surprise long time readers that I am actually going to comment on the Dow. I will keep this brief, but I wanted to point it out to readers as I have not heard much mention of this pattern in the main stream financial media.
Over the weekend I was looking at some longer term charts and I accidentally stumbled across this head and shoulders pattern on a weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I rarely pay much attention to the Dow as I monitor the S&P 500 closely. However, I could not ignore what I was seeing. I also noted that a similar pattern also exists on the S&P 500.
I am generally not the kind of trader who tries to predict where price action will arrive in the distant future. However, I am not going to ignore clear chart patterns that I recognize regardless of the time frame I am looking at.
For those not familiar with a head and shoulders pattern, it is a very ominous signal. Head and shoulders patterns are generally topping formations that if triggered result in violent sell-offs. On this chart the pattern is obvious and if the pattern were triggered the forthcoming price action would be decisively negative for domestic equities. The long term monthly chart of the Dow is shown below:
If the pattern is triggered on an undercut of the March 2009 lows, the head and shoulders formation would produce selling pressure that would target the 3,800 – 4,000 level on the Dow. Yes, you read that right! I want readers to recognize that this pattern is not a given and it could play out over a long period of time. The pattern would suggest that a test of the 2009 lows is possible, but I will leave the likelihood of that test up to Mr. Market.
I view this pattern as a potential warning signal for long term equity positions. Consequently, it is far too early to jump into a plethora of short positions or sell every equity position owned simply because of this pattern. While I do not know where price goes from here or if this pattern will ever trigger, I think market participants should be aware of its existence.
It would take the perfect concatenation of events to push prices down to the March 2009 lows, but unfortunately the condition of social mood paired with all of the risks facing financial markets is notable. The recent sell-off in August came on the heels of a head and shoulders pattern that was triggered. We all know how August played out, but this pattern on the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a long way to go before it can even trigger. Time will tell, but readers should at the very least put this chart pattern on your radar!
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index has ripped higher by more than 5% since August 29th. The strength in the Dollar has likely been precipitated by fear based on the European sovereign debt and banking crisis. While the Dollar certainly has long term flaws, it may simply be the best of the worst.
If the situation in Europe begins to break down further based on any number of events it could likely push the U.S. Dollar Index considerably higher. My trading partner Chris Vermeulen has been riding this strong impulse wave with his subscribers Swing trading the UUP etf and thinks there is big potential still if Euro-Land fears continue to rise.
The daily chart of the Dollar Index futures is shown below:
Mid-Week Market Trend Conclusion
Wednesday will be filled with a variety of news and headlines. The Greek government is meeting and a news release regarding the conference will likely come out around the time domestic markets in the United States open. The news has the potential to move markets considerably.
In addition, the Federal Reserve is set to end its September meeting and market participants will be sitting on the edge of their seats waiting to hear from the Federal Reserve about any stimulus the central bank may provide.
Overall, the news and headlines this Wednesday will certainly impact the current conditions of financial markets.
By Market Trend Forecasting
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
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Monday, September 19, 2011
I’ve got a very low-risk and if it works out very high-reward short-sell stock pick on Sears holdings this week. I’m seeing major resistance on the SP500 at 1223.98 to 1235.08 currently and possibly moving up to 1258.00. At these bear-market resistance price levels, I see the potential for a lot of new short positions coming into the market again for another leg down to lower lows or possibly holding at the 1100 in the SP500 for another bounce back up. We will just have to wait and see how it works out, but September historically has always been a negative month for positive returns in equity markets so be careful going long, and my best suggesting is don’t be afraid to sell-short this week or next.
Earnings Estimates Miss Big on the Actual Earnings Report
On August 24 Zacks Investment Research reported that Sears Holding Corporation announced second-quarter loss of $1.13 per share on August 18 that missed analysts’ earnings estimates expectations by 76.56%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year slipped to a loss of $1.67 per share from $1.02 per share in the last 30 days as next year’s estimate dipped 30 cents per share to a loss of 54 cents per share in that time span.
Terrible US Economy and Company Balance Sheet
With the US economy the way it is and Sears D+ balance sheet right now, I don’t see any upside there and all downside for the time being, especially if the broad market sells off which I think is coming again very soon. The retailing business is always a difficult business model to be in and with the compounded economic problems for the US consumer sector, the US retail industry is going to have a tough time making money for shareholders for the foreseeable future in my opinion.
Sexy Sales Increases?
Existing Sears’s shareholders might have been holding out that its Kardashian Kollection would increase some sales, but in these austacious days now not even hot sexy celebrity clothes collections can seem to arouse profitable sales and new long stock positions.
Selling Kenmore Appliances Wherever It Can
Rumor is that Sears is seeking a chief marketing officer for its appliance line whose responsibilities will include promoting appliance purchases through external groups such as Costco Wholesale Corp., which recently struck a deal to carry the Craftsman line. This possible action by Sears looks to me as an act of desperation to sell its finest brands anywhere it can get the sales which could end up being a disaster for the company in the long run. As we all know in the past, Kenmore is a high quality Sears brand along with Craftsman tools, and Diehard batteries, but with the housing sector in the toilet, and looking like it’s going to get flushed again, appliance sales don’t look to good for the time being.
Too Little Too Late
If Sears can sell some of its assets, maybe it can it start to straighten out its balance sheet, but who’s going to be interested in these types of retail assets in this market environment unless it’s a full-blown fire-sale? At fire sale prices, are the proceeds going to be enough to help Sears balance sheet?
Sell Short Sears Holdings – Ticker SHLD
Sell Entry: 60.34
Take Profit Areas: 46.42 to 44.09, 36.00 to 34.24, 21.63 to 20.67
Sears Holdings Corporation operates as a retailer in the United States and Canada. The company's Kmart segment operates stores that sell merchandise under Jaclyn Smith and Joe Boxer labels, as well as Sears brand products, such as Kenmore, Craftsman, and DieHard. Its stores offer consumer electronics, seasonal merchandise, outdoor living, toys, lawn and garden equipment, food and consumables, and apparel. The Kmart also sells its products through its kmart.com Website. The company’s Sears Domestic segment operates stores that offer home appliances, consumer electronics, tools, sporting goods, outdoor living, lawn and garden equipment, and certain automotive services and products, such as tires and batteries, home fashion products, as well as apparel, footwear, jewelry, and accessories. Its stores also sell health and beauty products, pantry goods, household products, and toys. In addition, this segment provides clothing, accessories, footwear, and soft luggage; appliances and services to commercial customers in the single-family residential construction/remodel, property management, multi-family new construction, and government/military sectors; premium appliance and plumbing fixtures to architects, designers, and new construction or remodeling customers; and parts and repair services for home appliances, lawn and garden equipment, consumer electronics, floor care products, and heating and cooling systems, as well as provides home improvement services. The Sears Canada segment conducts retail operations in Canada, and offers apparel and other softlines. As of January 29, 2011, the company operated approximately 1,307 Kmart stores, 894 full-line stores, 52 Sears Essentials/Grand stores, and 1,354 specialty stores in the United States; and 122 full-line stores, 361 specialty stores, 20 floor covering stores, 1,822 catalog pick-up locations, and 108 travel offices in Canada. Sears Holdings Corporation was founded in 1899 and is based in Hoffman Estates, Illinois.
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Click the Sears Holdings stock chart below for a larger view.
Friday, September 16, 2011
I talk to investors all the time who dream of turning tiny grubstakes into overnight fortunes, if only they could find the next Microsoft or Apple before everybody else.
Unfortunately, identifying such stocks is more luck than anything else. It’s like winning the lottery or hitting a Vegas jackpot.
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Clearly, you can make some serious money by following Mark’s advice. Now, he shares his every trade with you—as he makes it—in his Biotech Breakout Trader program.
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Mark’s unique, low-risk biotech investing formula consistently identifies biotechs that move by 20% to 100% or more in just a few months. Even adding just a few of his picks to your portfolio could bring you a real profit boost. Mark’s astonishing track record proves it.
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Thursday, September 15, 2011
Here we are again, the market is falling back into crash conditions.
The market is on a upside rebound currently, but don't be fooled, get ready to go short again anytime at these higher rebound levels. Look for SP500 1231 to 1258 to place new short positions.
It's more proof of what I've been saying for the past 3 years: Volatility is the real “new normal” in the stock market. And the most predictable side of that volatility is the down side.
You can either change with the times and get up to 2,000% richer OR get left behind and let the volatility destroy your portfolio.
Imagine turning $100 into $5,466 in 31 days... $100 into $6,321 in 46 days... or into $13,600 in 99 days. And turning $2,000 into $82,888... or taking your $7,400 nest egg and exploding it into $226,467 – all in just FOUR MONTHS.
Because you're about to see the DOCUMENTED and AUDITED trades proving a "crash strategy" approach to this market does exactly that.
I'm talking about serious money. More than you could make in 15 years of trading alongside the world’s greatest investor, Warren Buffett.
Consider his 22% average annual rate of return. $10,000 at 22% in 10 years is $73,046.31... in 15 years $197,422.87
$10,000 at 2,862% handed us $296,200 - $98,777.13 MORE than 15 years of holding Berkshire Hathaway stock - in just FOUR MONTHS!
Today I'm going to show you why turning your investing approach "upside down" is the single most profitable thing you can do right now. Because the Short Side of the market is where you can make 5227% returns… 6221% returns... 7492% returns... 13,400% returns – all in FOUR MONTHS OR LESS!
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Wednesday, September 14, 2011
I just heard that Mark Messier, the biotech trader who turned $7,480 into $289,635 over just the last 2 ½ years.
He’s giving away 3 FREE memberships to his new biotech trading program.
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When you consider what Mark has accomplished, I think you’ll find it worth your while to try to win one of those memberships. It will only take a few minutes of your time.
You’ll find all the details in the new “Cold-Blooded Investors” video that Mark just
released. It reveals his powerful formula for investing in biotech stocks, a formula that lets you line your pockets by taking profitable advantage of the multitude of reckless and greedy investors in this sector.
By the way, there’s nothing for sale. It’s just terrific content you can use to start making money in biotechs right away.
Watch Mark’s new video and enter the contest here!
One last thing: Mark has a valuable download for you. It’s an Excel spreadsheet you can use immediately to begin pinpointing profitable biotechs using Marks’ formula.
Better yet, he’s giving you a head start by listing every biotech he’s looking at now, along with a variety of details about each one.
Bottom line: If you want to give your portfolio a nice profit boost and have a shot at winning one of the free memberships, you need to watch this video today.
I just had a look at Mark’s track record, and it’s astounding. It boasts winners like Fibrocell Science, up 242.3% in just 4 months — enough to turn $2,500 into $8,557 . . . Neoprobe Corporation, up 204.44% in just over 6 months — enough to turn $2,500 into $7,611 . . . or Depomed, up 171.75% in 6 months — enough to turn $2,500 into $6,793.
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011
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Monday, September 12, 2011
God Bless the September 11, 2001 Terror Attack Victims
First, I want to give full respect and honor to all those who died along with their families, loved ones and those who were injured on September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the New York Twin Towers and at the Pentagon. God Bless all of you and the United States of America.
Weekly Stock Pick
I don’t have a buy or sell stock pick this week because I don’t see any low-risk high-reward trades or investments this week, unless you want to buy long-term into some dividend paying stocks. So below I have the “Four Key Attributes of a Good Dividend Stock” by Morningstar Investment Research. It will help you in determining which may be a good dividend stock to buy and hold.
Finding Good Dividend Stocks By Josh Peters CFA Senior Equity Strategist Editor Morningstar Dividend Investor
The appeal of dividends has grown a lot in recent years, but by itself, a fat dividend yield isn't enough. To work for you in the long run, these cash payments need to come from fundamentally attractive businesses. That's why at Morningstar DividendInvestor I focus on helping you separate the wheat from the chaff.
Once you find those reliable dividend-payers, hold on tight, because the dividends you earn are real cash in your pocket. You can reinvest them to supercharge your portfolio and watch them rise no matter which way the market goes.
Of course, we're not talking about crazy, speculative investments. I look for solid companies with strong competitive advantages. What kind of companies do I look for? Here are four key attributes I look for before putting my hard-earned capital to work:
1. Resilient earning power. Some businesses, like homebuilders or auto manufacturers, need a booming economy just to be profitable. Others are in better shape, but still ride the economy's roller coaster--as do their shareholders. My favorite businesses, however, are the ones selling products and services their customers need through all kinds of economic conditions, from packaged foods to petroleum pipelines. I may not have as much to "win" in the boom times, but I continue collecting big dividend checks through the inevitable busts.
2. Strong, identifiable competitive advantages. One hallmark of a good business is an ability to fend off rivals and keep profits high. Some have strong brands that command premium prices. Others have patents. Still others benefit from inherently low costs relative to their rivals. Whatever the reasons, these advantages support the profits that in turn fund my dividends, so I require evidence of competitive strength for any stock I would consider.
3. Attractive dividend policies. It's a shame so few large companies pay the dividends they're capable of paying. Many and perhaps even most good businesses divert their cash flow into questionable share buybacks or downright dubious acquisitions. I want my companies to grow, of course, and I like to see some reinvestment in the business. But a dividend policy that shares a large proportion of annual earnings with shareholders is a must.
4. Reasonable valuation. The number-one mistake an investor can make is to pay too much for a stock in relation to the intrinsic value of the underlying business. This can apply to any individual issue, or to the entire market--which goes a long way toward explaining why the past decade has been so disappointing overall. Fortunately, big dividends tend to keep investors rational. I'm not looking at any stocks that can't deliver a yield of at least 2%, and preferably 3%, 5%, or better. And I won't pay more than the business is worth, no matter what the yield may be.
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Friday, September 09, 2011
Thursday brought two highly anticipated events. First was a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Those looking for an immediate response from the Fed were certainly disappointed as stocks tumbled into the close. More than likely the Fed is just setting the table to take action as early as their next meeting Sept 20th and 21st. Most assume that will be a reincarnation of "Operation Twist" from 1961 when the Fed pushed down long term rates to encourage investment. (Yet with rates already this low, will it really work???)
Then President Obama took center stage on Thursday night unveiling his jobs and growth plan. On the surface all speeches of this nature sound good as they promote great optimism. However, it may take some time for investors to research the true value of these concepts. And, more importantly, the ability for these ideas to become law given a VERY DIVIDED Congress.
Since it will take a little bit of time for the investment community to fully digest this news, you should not give too much credence to the initial reaction of stocks on Friday morning. Quite likely the final verdict will become clearer over the next couple weeks.
Featured Commentaries on Zacks This Week
• 5 Cheap Growth Stocks
• Bullish Force, Questionable Catalysts
• The Attractiveness of Options for Today's Market
Click here to avail for a Zacks Investment Research free trial.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Rumors, false hopes, a “good story” . . .
This is what many investors base their stock choices on.
Not exactly a good idea if you ask me. BUT there's a way to profit off of other investors bad decisions.
Mark Messier's new video shows to profit handsomely from gullible stupid traders and investors.
So how does Mark do it? By playing the smart side of one sector’s bad decisions. You can see him in action here.
Don't worry, there's nothing for sale — just some ideas you can use to pad your profits in the months ahead.
Reckless, gullible and greedy investors will always be with us, and they routinely transfer their wealth to investors who play it smart, safe and careful. You might as well be on the right side of this equation right?
A lot of people buy stocks for downright STUPID reasons – rumors, false hope and because a stock has a ‘good story.”
And there’s a way for you to profit as long as investors buy stocks for stupid reasons.
Mark Messier’ track record is proof of that: Over the last two and a half years, he’s taken his meager savings of $7,480 and turned it into $289,635.
How? By playing the smart side of one sector’s persistent stupidity.
And now, Mark has released a free video revealing how you can do it, too.
Click here to watch Mark’s “Reckless, Gullible and Greedy” video right now.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Wall Street opened sharply lower today after a long weekend on renewed fears the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis is worsening.
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Tuesday, September 06, 2011
This week I have a short-sell stock pick on Kimco Real Estate Investment Trust. The bears are in current control of the market in my opinion, and September has never been very nice to the longs in the market. Reviewing the latest index charts, its easy to see that more downside is in the works before any upside can be seen.
Back on July 27 Zacks Investment Research reported that Kimco Realty Ticker KIM a leading real estate investment trust (REIT), stated second quarter 2011 rental revenues of $219.2 million compared with $208.3 million in the year-earlier quarter – an increase of 5.2%. Total revenues for the reported quarter missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $221.0 million.
Kimco reported second quarter 2011 fund from operations (FFO)of $118.0 million or 29 cents per share compared with $105.6 million or 26 cents in the year-ago period. Fund from operations, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income.
Excluding certain non-recurring items, FFO (Funds From Operations) for the reported quarter was $121.4 million or 30 cents per share compared with $115.7 million or 28 cents in the year-earlier quarter. The recurring FFO for the quarter was in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Overall occupancy in Kimco’s combined shopping center portfolio was 93.1% at the end of the quarter, an increase of 30 bps compared with second quarter 2010. In the U.S. portfolio, occupancy was 92.9% as of June 30, 2011, an increase of 50 bps compared with the year-ago period. Same-store net operating income in the combined portfolio increased 3.1% year-over-year.
During the reported quarter, Kimco executed a total of 594 leases spanning 1.9 million square feet. These included 80 new leases in the same-store portfolio totaling 212,000 pro-rata square feet and 212 lease renewals and options for 927,000 pro-rata square feet in the U.S. portfolio. In addition, Kimco executed over 130 new leases totaling 617,000 square feet for spaces vacant for more than one year. Leasing spreads in the U.S. portfolio on a pro-rata basis increased 2.1% (cash basis).
The company acquired 3 shopping centers during the quarter for approximately $75 million. At the same time, Kimco sold 11 non-strategic assets spanning 1.0 million square feet for $48.5 million.
The reported quarter also saw the company recognizing $8.4 million of fee income related to its investment management business, including $7.2 million in management fees, $0.2 million in acquisition fees and $1.0 million in other ongoing fees. Kimco had 285 properties in investment management funds with 24 institutional partners at quarter-end.
During the reported quarter, the company generated $25.3 million of income from its structured investments and other non-retail assets, out of which $14.9 million was recurring in nature. As of June 30, 2011, Kimco reduced its non-retail assets to approximately $612 million compared to $1.2 billion at the end of first quarter 2009.
At quarter-end, Kimco had over $1.7 billion available under its revolving credit facilities. The company’s consolidated net debt to recurring EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) ratio improved to 6.0x from 6.6x in the year-ago quarter. For fiscal 2011, the company reiterated its earlier recurring FFO guidance in the range of $1.17 – $1.21 per share.
We maintain our ‘Neutral’ recommendation for the long term on the stock, which presently has a Zacks #4 Rank translating into a short-term ‘Sell’ rating.
Sell-Short Kimco Realty – Ticker KIM
Sell Entry: 17.23 to 16.59
Take Profit Areas: 14.28 to 13.76, 12.62 to 12.17, 9.17 to 8.85, and potentially lower if current bear-market trend stays intact.
Kimco Company Profile
Kimco Realty Corporation is a publicly owned real estate investment trust. The firm engages in acquisitions, development, and management of neighborhood and community shopping centers. It also provides property management services relating to the management, leasing, operation, and maintenance of real estate properties. The firm primarily invests in real estate markets across the globe with a focus in North America. It also invests in operating properties. The firm also provides equity and mezzanine debt to developers and owners of commercial properties. It also makes secondary market investments including under performing mortgage loans, secured bank debt, and corporate securities. Kimco was formed in 1960 and is based in New Hyde Park, New York with additional office in Mesa, Arizona; Daly City, California; Granite Bay, California; Irvine, California; Carmichael, California; Vista, California; Walnut Creek, California; West Hartford, Connecticut; Largo, Florida; Margate, Florida; Sanford, Florida; Lisle, Illinois; Rosemont, Illinois; Columbia, Maryland; Lutherville, Maryland; Bellevue, Washington; Mesquite, Texas; Houston, Texas; Dallas, Texas; Austin, Texas; Ardmore, Pennsylvania; Portland, Oregon; Kettering, Ohio; Canfield, Ohio; Raleigh, North Carolina; Charlotte, North Carolina; New York, New York; and Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Click the Kimco Realty stock chart below for a larger view.
Friday, September 02, 2011
Those Steely-Eyes of J.P. Morgan: Could They Help Us Today?
Click Here for a Free Copy: Understanding the Federal Reserve
"The Panic of 1907" vs. the "Debt Crisis" of 2011
If "legendary Wall Street figure" ever described anyone, it was turn-of-the-last-century financier J.P. Morgan. You can throw in "bigger than life" to boot.
Morgan was used to getting his way. His steely eyes cast a "ferocious glare." His bulbous nose added to his imposing presence.
Beyond appearance and persona, Morgan was a one-man central bank. Historians credit him with bringing calm -- and loads of liquidity -- to the "Panic of 1907."
While he "stared down" that financial crisis, even J.P. Morgan would be no match for today's national debt. In 1907, the Wall Street legend gathered New York City's biggest bankers into his office and demanded that they had 10 minutes to collectively pledge $25 million to keep the NYSE open. Morgan got his way.
At the time that was a lot of money. But let's see how far an equivalent sum (constant dollars) would go today.
I used several methods to calculate constant dollars from 1907, and the highest estimate (relative share of GDP) converts $25 million then to some $11 billion today.
Yet $11 billion doesn't even make a dent in our $16 trillion national debt.
Interestingly, the 1907 Panic eventually led to the 1913 creation of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Then as now, the central bank's function is "financial stability."
Specifically, the Federal Reserve serves as a "lender of a last resort" -- the role Morgan and his banker friends played in 1907.
Fast-forward ninety years: In 2002, Robert Prechter published Conquer the Crash (now in its second edition), and said this about the central bank:
"Congress authorized the Fed not only to create money for the government but also to 'smooth out' the economy by manipulating credit (which also happens to be a re-election tool for incumbents). Politics being what they are, this manipulation has been almost exclusively in the direction of making credit easy to obtain."
Sounds a lot like today, doesn't it?
And just a few weeks ago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he wants to keep interest rates very low:
"Issuing a grim new assessment of the American economy, a divided Federal Reserve said it now expects to hold short-term interest rates near zero for at least two more years." Los Angeles Times, (8/10)
Since the start of the Great Recession, the Fed's easy money policy has not restored health to the economy. Why should the same policy work in the next two years?
Notice how the above quote uses the phrase "a divided Federal Reserve." With that in mind, here's what Prechter published as recently as July 16:
" . . . when the trend in social mood turns down again, dissension will increase. The Fed is fracturing internally . . . " Elliott Wave Theorist, July 2011
The U.S. Federal Reserve was created almost a century ago. Has it kept us financially stable? What does the future look like for America's central bank?
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Thursday, September 01, 2011
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